CONFERINȚA CODUL INSOLVENȚEI - Ediția a IV-a
BURSA 26.01.2017

CĂLIN RECHEA (translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
 
mărește imaginea
     Investment bank Lehman Brothers announced its default on September 15th 2008, and has forced the global authorities to acknowledge the beginning of an unprecedented crisis.
     Two months later, the Romanian National Forecast Commission (CNP) published the long term autumn prognosis, wherein it estimated the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators until 2020.
     Thus, the nominal GDP was supposed to increase 14.6% in 2009, compared to the previous year, and in 2015 it was supposed to increase to 1089 billion, after increasing 115.7% compared to 2008 (see chart 1).
     By 2020, the nominal GDP was supposed to increase three times, to 1590 billion lei. Unfortunately, reality had other plans and proved to the Romanian Authorities, including to the National Bank, that it is not enough to ignore a global crisis for it not to touch you.
     According to data from the National Statistics Institute (INS), calculated according to the new European account system (SEC 2010), the nominal value of goods and services in the economy decreased 2.6% in 2009 over the previous year, to 510.5 billion lei, and the discrepancy from the CNP forecasts increased continuously until 2015, even if the European regulations allow including in the GDP estimates concerning the grey market and black market sections of the economy.
     No one demands and expects forecasts that would match reality perfectly, because "making forecasts is extremely difficult, especially for the future", like renowned physician Niels Bohr once said.
     But radically different forecasts in a period of approximately two months?
     It would seem that is possible too. Between November 2016 and January 2017, CNP found new "engines" for the economic growth in the next four years. The nominal GDP will not be 977.2 billion lei in 2020, but 1,014 billion, while this year's amount will be 7.8 billion higher than the initial forecast, of 807.4 billion (see chart 2).
     But the miracle doesn't stop there. Through a simple "adjustment", probably, the real economic growth will not slow down to 4.3% in 2017, down from 4.8% in the previous year, and will instead speed up to 5.2% and will match perfectly the hypotheses used in building the budget.
     Then comes a new acceleration, to 5.5% in 2018, and the annual "growth" will stabilize at 5.7% in the last two years of the forecast period.
     To presidential advisor Cosmin Marinescu, the forecast of a growth rate of 5.2% in 2017 is unrealistic, according to an interview he recently granted news.ro: "It is unclear why the forecast has been revised upwards, after just two months, de from 4.3% to 5.2%", the presidential advisor said.
     In "The report concerning the macroeconomic situation in 2017 and its projection for the 2018-2020 period" it is stated that the basic principles of the draft budget are "transparency, effectiveness, predictability, prudency and performance", and the estimates "have been made using the common methodology and agreed upon by the 28 member states".
     If the same methodology has been used for the autumn and winter forecasts of the National Prognosis Commission, where do those major differences come from, especially when it comes to the real economic growth?
     Liberal senator Florin Cîțu later challenged the "construction" of the budget on his blog, where he said that "the budget is not built based on the autumn forecast of the CNP, as provided by the law, but based on the winter forecast", as it "has been published approximately two months earlier than was normal". Cîțu also accuses the CNP of having "revised" its forecasts in order to match "the vision" of PSD leader Liviu Dragnea, and says that "I will be asking my colleagues in the PNL to bring a criminal lawsuit against the executives of the CNP". "If it is right, we will all get burned", the PNL senator concluded.
     But the extremely optimistic estimate of the evolution of the economy in the next four years is not the only weak spot of the budget. Even if we overlook "transparency" easily, what about prudency? Hasn't the CNP learned anything, and more so our authorities, from the lesson of the crisis that began in 2008? Where does this optimism concerning the evolution of the economy over the next four years come from, when the global trade "landscape" is precisely in the process of undergoing a transformation following the victory of the Trump administration, and the problems of the EU are going through a new phase of worsening?
     The report also states that the "potential GDP will increase at an annual growth rate of 5.1%", whereas "the gap between the GDP and the potential GDP levels expressed as a percentage of the potential GDP will be closed in 2018". But don't we have the opinion of some NBR officials, that the output gap was closed as early as 2013 or Q2 2016?
     Aside from "faith", we must not forget that the methods for estimating the difference between the potential GDP and the real GDP are more or less mechanical, as they are heavily influenced by the growth of lending. Does the new government believe that we are back to the period of "growth" based on cheap loans and ultra-lax lending norms?
     It would seem so, because the report concerning the macroeconomic situation in the next years reflects an unrealistic approach of the evolution of borrowing costs.
     The governmental report also shows that "the yields of government bonds have followed a downward trend in the first three quarters of 2016, and then rise was mostly due to a number of foreign events".
     Unfortunately, we are not given a forecast of borrowing costs until 2020. Even though the president of the PSD has participated in the festivities for the instatement of the new president of the United States, the "expertise" he gained from that has not included the transparency provided by institutions such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) or Government Accountability Office (GAO), even though their forecasts are unrealistic as well.
     On the other hand, there are some signals sent by "reality", even here in Europe. The yield of the 10-year German government bonds increased 141.6% from the beginning of the year, to 0.46%.
     Why would that happen to the strongest economy of the continent? Has investors' confidence disappeared or is the world getting ready for a rise in borrowing costs?
     Yes, the world is getting ready for that, because confidence in major central banks has pretty much disappeared and inflationary pressures are forcing them to raise the interest rates.
     In that context, the economic basis of the Romanian budget for 2017 and the subsequent years is being systematically eroded, just like the cold erodes the mortar of homes built during winter, just to avoid missing any second of the "opportunity" provided by the irresponsible extension of the First Home program.
     Wouldn't the national budget be more realistic if it were drawn up through divination, rather than being "built" based on official "forecasts"? 
 

 
Readers' comments    [ add a comment ] 
Aceeasi sectiune (English Section)
MAJORITY SHAREHOLDER MADE MOVES BEFORE THE FILING FOR INSOLVENCY
SPECIALISTS: "THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT HAS CHANGED THE RULES OVER NIGHT"
AUTOMOBILE DACIA AND RENAULT COMMERCIAL ROUMANIE ARE WITHDRAWING FROM THE APIA
EUGEN TEODOROVICI SEES A CONFLICT OF INTEREST IN THE POSITIONS HELD BY IONUȚ DUMITRU
EXCLUSIVE / RUSSIAN FEDERATION AMBASSADOR IN ROMANIA:
TRUMP IS ENTERING THE WHTE HOUSE TODAY
Actualitate - vezi toate știrile mai jos.
Media-Advertising, 17:03
ANCOM:
     Autoritatea Națională pentru Administrare și Reglementare în Comunicații (ANCOM) a anunțat că două noi multiplexuri de televiziune digitală au fost adjudecate în cadrul licitației organizate la începutul acestui an, de firmele Nova Media din Timișoara și M Plus Investments din Iași, potrivit unui comunicat de presă trimis Redacției.  detalii
Strategia Naţională Anticorupţie, 16:35
     Președintele Curții Militare de Apel, Gheorghe Manea, a fost suspendat din funcția de judecător, decizia fiind luată de secția de judecători din cadrul Consiliului Superior al Magistraturii (CSM), potrivit unui comunicat de presă publicat pe site-ul instituției.  detalii
Bănci-Asigurări, 16:25
     Banca Transilvania (BT) înființează compania BT Mic prin care va finanța micile companii care au o cifră de afaceri anuală de până la 1 milion de lei, indiferent de domeniul de activitate și de forma de organizare, potrivit unui comunicat de presă trimis Redacției.  detalii
Internaţional, 16:06
CROAȚIA:
     APS Holding, companie din domeniul imobiliar, al investițiilor, al administrării și recuperării portofoliilor de creanțe din Europa Centrală și de Sud-Est, intră pe piața croată prin achiziția unui portofoliu de credite neperformante (NPL), cu o valoare nominală de 142 de milioane de euro, potrivit unui comunicat de presă trimis Redacției.  detalii
Strategia Naţională Anticorupţie, 15:28
     Directorul general al Aeroportului Internațional "Avram Iancu" din Cluj-Napoca, David Ciceo, a fost trimis în judecată de DNA pentru luare de mită, fiind acuzat că a primit un imobil de 690.000 de lei pentru ca o firmă să realizeze lucrări nelegale la aeroport, finanțate din bani publici, în condițiile în care un contract încheiat în acest sens se finalizase, precizează un comunicat transmis Redacției.  detalii
Ediții precedente
Newsletter Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn RSS
Jurnal Bursier
20.02.2017
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Acțiunile tranzacționate la bursele din Europa au fluctuat vineri, în condițiile în care avansul consemnat de "Unilever" a compensat declinul din sectorul bancar și cel al materiilor prime.  detalii
20.02.2017
BVB
     * Aproape jumătate din lichiditate, realizată prin tranzacții cu titluri "Banca Transilvania"
       Opt dintre indicii Bursei de Valori București (BVB) au încheiat ședința de tranzacționare de vineri în apreciere, în contextul în care a fost înregistrat un volum de tranzacționare de 51,58...  detalii
20.02.2017
SIBEX
     Pe piața futures de la Sibiu, săptămâna trecută a adus o diminuare a interesului speculativ, lichiditatea coborând la 208 contracte, cu circa 30% sub totalul din cea de-a doua săptămână a lunii.  detalii
17.02.2017
BVB
     * Indicii au crescut, pe un rulaj de 22 milioane euro
       Șapte dintre indicii Bursei de Valori București (BVB) au încheiat ședința de tranzacționare de ieri în apreciere, în contextul în care a fost înregistrat un volum de tranzacționare de 99 milioane...  detalii
17.02.2017
SIBEX
     După ce în primele trei zile ale săptămânii, primele jumătăți ale ședințelor au stat sub semnul tranzacțiilor cu derivatul pe Dow Jones, pe fondul atingerii a noi valori record de către cotația...  detalii
17.02.2017
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Acțiunile tranzacționate la bursele din Europa s-au înscris pe un curs negativ ieri, după șapte zile consecutive cu creșteri, din cauza declinului prețurilor metalelor.  detalii
Cotații Internaționale

Prognoza Meteo
Vezi harta temperaturilor
harta temperaturilor
     20.02.2017 
     Prognoza pentru România
     Pe parcursul zilei, în sudul și centrul Moldovei, în sud-estul Transilvaniei și zona Carpaților Meridionali și ai Curburii, înnorările vor fi persistente și vor fi precipitații mixte în zonele mai joase de relief și ninsori la altitudini mari. În restul țării, cerul va fi temporar noros, iar în Dobrogea și estul Munteniei vor fi ploi și trecător lapoviță. Pe timpul nopții cerul se va degaja în sud, în est și parțial în centru, astfel că vor fi temperaturi mai scăzute decât în nopțile precedente. În schimb în regiunile nord-vestice nebulozitatea se va accentua, precipitațiile se vor extinde ca arie și treptat vor predomina ninsorile. Vor fi condiții ca izolat să se depună polei, în primele ore ale dimineții în centru și est, iar noaptea în nord-vest. Vântul va sufla slab și moderat, cu intensificări locale și temporare în special în sudul extrem al teritoriului și la munte. Temperaturile maxime se vor încadra între 2 și 9 grade, iar cele minime între -7 și 2 grade. Izolat, în zonele joase, va fi ceață.
     Prognoza pentru București
     Cerul va avea înnorări mai ales în prima parte a zilei, când trecător vor mai fi posibile precipitații slabe, predominant sub formă de ploaie, apoi se va degaja treptat. Vântul va sufla slab și moderat. Temperatura maximă va fi de 6...7 grade, iar cea minimă de -4...-2 grade.
      
Curs Valutar

Curs valabil din data de 20 februarie 2017
1 Dolar australian...
1 Leva bulgărească...
1 Dolar canadian....
1 Franc elvețian...
1 Coroană cehă...
1 Coroană daneză...
1 Liră egipteană...
1 Euro...
1 Liră sterlină...
100 Forinți maghiari...
100 Yeni japonezi...
1 Leu moldovenesc...
1 Coroană norvegiană...
1 Zlot polonez...
1 Rublă rusească...
1 Coroană suedeză...
1 Liră turcească...
1 Dolar S.U.A...
1 Rand sud-african...
1 Real brazilian...
1 Renminbi chinezesc...
1 Rupie indiană...
100 Woni sud-coreeni...
1 Peso mexican...
1 Dolar neo-zeelandez...
1 Dinar sărbesc...
1 Hryvna ucraineană...
1 Dirham emirate arabe...
1 Kuna croată...
1 Gram aur...
1 DST...
AUD
BGN
CAD
CHF
CZK
DKK
EGP
EUR
GBP
HUF
JPY
MDL
NOK
PLN
RUB
SEK
TRL
USD
ZAR
BRL
CNY
INR
KRW
MXN
NZD
RSD
UAH
AED
HRK
XAU
XDR
3,2682
2,3133
3,2515
4,2493
0,1675
0,6087
0,2692
4,5244
5,3091
1,4681
3,7637
0,2121
0,5106
1,0467
0,0734
0,4778
1,1720
4,2591
0,3248
1,3718
0,6192
0,0636
0,3613
0,2076
3,0602
0,0365
0,1577
1,1596
0,6073
169,2300
5,7648
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
click aici pentru cursurile pieței valutare - istoric
English Section
17.02.2017
RAPID FIRE DISASTER
     * Six creditors, of which International Investment Bank and Unicredit Leasing have asked for the insolvency of the company, in the lawsuit which has already been filed with the County Court of Mureș
     * Bank loans had been guaranteed with inventory, which according to information which has surfaced was fictitious
       Cable maker "Romcab", which filed for insolvency on February 10th, yesterday posted a loss of 178.23 million lei in 2016, compared to a net profit of 42.13 million lei in 2015, as, on...  details
16.02.2017
MAJORITY SHAREHOLDER MADE MOVES BEFORE THE FILING FOR INSOLVENCY
     * That same Cyprus offshore "Stareal Limited" also appeared in a closed criminal lawsuit, which involved Zoltan Prosszer, the president of Romcab
     ---------
       * UPDATE "Romcab" had losses of 178.23 million lei last year, after it got a profit of 42.13 million lei in 2015, according to the preliminary financial report sent this evening to the...  details
15.02.2017
GABRIEL DUMITRAȘCU:
     * Interview with Gabriel Dumitrașcu, the former head of the privatization division of the Energy Department, when the Romanian state sent the ENEL lawsuit to the Court of Paris
       Reporter: What is your comment on the ruling of the Court of Arbitration of Paris in which ENEL is required to pay 401 million Euros to the Romanian state?
     Gabriel Dumitrașcu:...  details
14.02.2017
     * EximBank hopes that "business will continue with a more solid foundation"
     * BCR, Banca Transilvania, Piraeus Bank and Banca Feroviară do not comment on the situation
     * Some sources say that EximBank has filed a lawsuit against the company that appraised the Romcab inventory which Eximbank accepted as collateral, because the bank found said inventory did not exist
     * Teraplast has to set up a provision of 200,000 Euros, but will continue its collaboration with Romcab, and Prodplast pares down its contractual relationships with the cable maker
     * On January 27th, Roxana Tarcă has reached a stake of 46.7% of "Sadalbari", while Zoltan Prosszer is only left with 9.35%
       The request by "Romcab" (MCAB) to enter insolvency, submitted on Friday and reported yesterday to the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB), is causing anxiety among Romanian banks, considering...  details
13.02.2017
     Radu Gabrea has died.
     My friend who was always smiling and went from being to not being.
     Jokes have only helped us during our life, he had a booming laughter, I would talk...  details
09.02.2017
SPECIALISTS: "THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT HAS CHANGED THE RULES OVER NIGHT"
     * Some lawyers claim that there is no limit to the arguments that the CCR can bring when making a decision
       In the ruling of the Constitutional Court of Romania, (CCR) concerning the law of conversion, a grave mistake has been made, some specialists claim, who stress that the CCR has also invoked the...  details
07.02.2017
     That's it, PSD has eliminated all the problems that we were complaining about one month ago, we are no longer interested in the issues of the medical system, the devolution of the education...  details
06.02.2017
AUTOMOBILE DACIA AND RENAULT COMMERCIAL ROUMANIE ARE WITHDRAWING FROM THE APIA
     Automobile Dacia and Renault Commercial Roumanie (a company that sells the Dacia, Renault and Nissan in Romania) have expressed at the end of last week, in an official letter, the decision to...  details
01.02.2017
EUGEN TEODOROVICI SEES A CONFLICT OF INTEREST IN THE POSITIONS HELD BY IONUȚ DUMITRU
     * Ionuț Dumitru: "I will not go into this politically motivated argument"
     * Ionuț Dumitru has also been criticized by Liviu Dragnea
       PSD senator Eugen Teodorovici thinks that the Fiscal Council makes misleading predictions, and as a result has asked for the resignation of the president of the Fiscal Council on Tuesday. Ionuț...  details
31.01.2017
THE EPIC OF CHF BORROWERS CONTINUES
     * The High Court the complaint concerning the freezing of the CHF exchange rate denied as inadmissible, in a case against Banca Transilvania
     * Stan Târnoveanu: "The High Court of Cassation and Justice did not resolve the complaint, it has left the decision to the court"
     * Borrowers' lawyers: "A new slap in the face to consumers, their time has been wasted"
       CHF borrowers (CHF) keep their optimism and wait anxiously on any court ruling. Except their expectations have been denied lately, as many courts, as well as the Constitutional Court have postponed...  details
30.01.2017
GHEORGHE PIPEREA:
     * The Finance Ministry wants to lower the amount allocated to the First Home program by 15%
     * The total amount of collaterals paid out so far by the program exceeds 44 million lei
     * The law of giving in payment does not apply to the First Home program
       The First Home program may disappear this year, lawyer Gheorghe Piperea said in an interview.  details
28.01.2017
     * (Interview with European MP Cătălin Ivan, member of the Special Commission for the investigation of the Panama Papers scandal)
     * Ivan: "In the Panama Papers scandal, all the seven major banks from Germany were involved in offshore activities. I don't think that there is any bank in Europe that doesn't have such practices"
       Banks are the main accomplices of those who hide huge amounts of money in offshores, says European MP Cătălin Ivan, member of the Special Commission for the investigation of the Panama Papers...  details
26.01.2017
     Investment bank Lehman Brothers announced its default on September 15th 2008, and has forced the global authorities to acknowledge the beginning of an unprecedented crisis.  details
24.01.2017
     The institution of the EU Ombudsman recently received a complaint from NGO Corporate Europe Observatory (CEO), concerning the ties that exist between major members of the ECB management and the...  details
23.01.2017
EXCLUSIVE / RUSSIAN FEDERATION AMBASSADOR IN ROMANIA:
     * (Interview with His Excellency Valeri I.Kuzmin, Ambassador of the Russian Federation in Romania)
     * Relations between Romania and Russia: "Even now, in January, I can strongly say that after winter comes spring and then summer"
     * "We hope that Russian investors in Romania won't see artificial hurdles erected before them"
     * "We do not intend to ask for the modest contribution of our embassy to the buyback of the «Wisdom of the Earth» to be refunded"
     * "With the appointment of Donald Trump, we do not expect miraculous changes in the geostrategic arena"
     * "The US expects the lion's share of the 2% of the GDP of NATO countries"
       Reporter: Your Excellency, you have recently said that Russia expects from the new government an improvement in the Russian-Romanian relations, which are currently very cold. What would help...  details
.