Apanova
BURSA 26.01.2017

CĂLIN RECHEA (translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
 
mărește imaginea
     Investment bank Lehman Brothers announced its default on September 15th 2008, and has forced the global authorities to acknowledge the beginning of an unprecedented crisis.
     Two months later, the Romanian National Forecast Commission (CNP) published the long term autumn prognosis, wherein it estimated the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators until 2020.
     Thus, the nominal GDP was supposed to increase 14.6% in 2009, compared to the previous year, and in 2015 it was supposed to increase to 1089 billion, after increasing 115.7% compared to 2008 (see chart 1).
     By 2020, the nominal GDP was supposed to increase three times, to 1590 billion lei. Unfortunately, reality had other plans and proved to the Romanian Authorities, including to the National Bank, that it is not enough to ignore a global crisis for it not to touch you.
     According to data from the National Statistics Institute (INS), calculated according to the new European account system (SEC 2010), the nominal value of goods and services in the economy decreased 2.6% in 2009 over the previous year, to 510.5 billion lei, and the discrepancy from the CNP forecasts increased continuously until 2015, even if the European regulations allow including in the GDP estimates concerning the grey market and black market sections of the economy.
     No one demands and expects forecasts that would match reality perfectly, because "making forecasts is extremely difficult, especially for the future", like renowned physician Niels Bohr once said.
     But radically different forecasts in a period of approximately two months?
     It would seem that is possible too. Between November 2016 and January 2017, CNP found new "engines" for the economic growth in the next four years. The nominal GDP will not be 977.2 billion lei in 2020, but 1,014 billion, while this year's amount will be 7.8 billion higher than the initial forecast, of 807.4 billion (see chart 2).
     But the miracle doesn't stop there. Through a simple "adjustment", probably, the real economic growth will not slow down to 4.3% in 2017, down from 4.8% in the previous year, and will instead speed up to 5.2% and will match perfectly the hypotheses used in building the budget.
     Then comes a new acceleration, to 5.5% in 2018, and the annual "growth" will stabilize at 5.7% in the last two years of the forecast period.
     To presidential advisor Cosmin Marinescu, the forecast of a growth rate of 5.2% in 2017 is unrealistic, according to an interview he recently granted news.ro: "It is unclear why the forecast has been revised upwards, after just two months, de from 4.3% to 5.2%", the presidential advisor said.
     In "The report concerning the macroeconomic situation in 2017 and its projection for the 2018-2020 period" it is stated that the basic principles of the draft budget are "transparency, effectiveness, predictability, prudency and performance", and the estimates "have been made using the common methodology and agreed upon by the 28 member states".
     If the same methodology has been used for the autumn and winter forecasts of the National Prognosis Commission, where do those major differences come from, especially when it comes to the real economic growth?
     Liberal senator Florin Cîțu later challenged the "construction" of the budget on his blog, where he said that "the budget is not built based on the autumn forecast of the CNP, as provided by the law, but based on the winter forecast", as it "has been published approximately two months earlier than was normal". Cîțu also accuses the CNP of having "revised" its forecasts in order to match "the vision" of PSD leader Liviu Dragnea, and says that "I will be asking my colleagues in the PNL to bring a criminal lawsuit against the executives of the CNP". "If it is right, we will all get burned", the PNL senator concluded.
     But the extremely optimistic estimate of the evolution of the economy in the next four years is not the only weak spot of the budget. Even if we overlook "transparency" easily, what about prudency? Hasn't the CNP learned anything, and more so our authorities, from the lesson of the crisis that began in 2008? Where does this optimism concerning the evolution of the economy over the next four years come from, when the global trade "landscape" is precisely in the process of undergoing a transformation following the victory of the Trump administration, and the problems of the EU are going through a new phase of worsening?
     The report also states that the "potential GDP will increase at an annual growth rate of 5.1%", whereas "the gap between the GDP and the potential GDP levels expressed as a percentage of the potential GDP will be closed in 2018". But don't we have the opinion of some NBR officials, that the output gap was closed as early as 2013 or Q2 2016?
     Aside from "faith", we must not forget that the methods for estimating the difference between the potential GDP and the real GDP are more or less mechanical, as they are heavily influenced by the growth of lending. Does the new government believe that we are back to the period of "growth" based on cheap loans and ultra-lax lending norms?
     It would seem so, because the report concerning the macroeconomic situation in the next years reflects an unrealistic approach of the evolution of borrowing costs.
     The governmental report also shows that "the yields of government bonds have followed a downward trend in the first three quarters of 2016, and then rise was mostly due to a number of foreign events".
     Unfortunately, we are not given a forecast of borrowing costs until 2020. Even though the president of the PSD has participated in the festivities for the instatement of the new president of the United States, the "expertise" he gained from that has not included the transparency provided by institutions such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) or Government Accountability Office (GAO), even though their forecasts are unrealistic as well.
     On the other hand, there are some signals sent by "reality", even here in Europe. The yield of the 10-year German government bonds increased 141.6% from the beginning of the year, to 0.46%.
     Why would that happen to the strongest economy of the continent? Has investors' confidence disappeared or is the world getting ready for a rise in borrowing costs?
     Yes, the world is getting ready for that, because confidence in major central banks has pretty much disappeared and inflationary pressures are forcing them to raise the interest rates.
     In that context, the economic basis of the Romanian budget for 2017 and the subsequent years is being systematically eroded, just like the cold erodes the mortar of homes built during winter, just to avoid missing any second of the "opportunity" provided by the irresponsible extension of the First Home program.
     Wouldn't the national budget be more realistic if it were drawn up through divination, rather than being "built" based on official "forecasts"? 
 

 
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Aceeasi sectiune (English Section)
FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER THE LOSS OF 2.6 BILLION LEI OF 2014
THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA ISN'T COMMENTING, EVEN THOUGH BOTH COMMERCIAL BANKS ARE LISTED ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
ACCORDING TO AN EUROPEAN COMMISSION DOCUMENT, SEEN BY BLOOMBERG
LAST WEEK, ROMANIA HAD THE BIGGEST IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS
Actualitate - vezi toate știrile mai jos.
Miscellanea, 07:49
     * ACTUALIZARE 15:25 Sindicaliștii Sanitas au ieșit de la negocieri
     Liderul federației Sanitas, Leonard Bărăscu, a declarat, astăzi, după discuțiile care au avut loc la Guvern pe tema sporurilor și a protestelor, că li s-a transmis că există o soluție, care nu a fost însă prezentată dar care se regăsește în materialul propus de managerii de spitale, vestea bună fiind că se dorește ca în mai salariile să nu mai fie mai mici decât nivelul din luna februarie, informează News.ro.
     -------------
     * ACTUALIZARE 14:15 Sindicaliștii Sanitas au început să părăsească Piața Victoriei
     Sindicaliștii Sanitas au început să părăsească Piața Victoriei astăzi, la ora 14:00, deși la Guvern o delegație a protestatarilor discută cu vicepremierul Viorel Ștefan și cu secretarul general al Guvernului, Andreea Lambru, informează Agerpres.
     --------------
     * ACTUALIZARE 13:50 O delegație a sindicaliștilor de la Sanitas a intrat la discuții cu vicepremierul Viorel Ștefan
     O delegație a sindicaliștilor de la Sanitas a intrat, în această după-amiază, la discuții cu vicepremierul Viorel Ștefan și secretarul general al Guvernului, Andreea Lambru, informează Agerpres.
     ---------------
     * ACTUALIZARE 12:05 Mii de persoane din sistemul sanitar protestează în Piața Victoriei
     Câteva mii de angajați din sistemul sanitar protestează astăzi în Piața Victoriei din Capitală, la un miting organizat de Federația Sanitas, informează News.ro.
     ---------------
     Cel puțin 10.000 de angajați din sistemul sanitar sunt așteptați, astăzi, la un miting în Piața Victoriei din Capitală organizat de federația Sanitas, care spune că există două categorii de angajați, medici și asistenți, ale căror salarii au crescut, însă există cel puțin alte șapte categorii care în urma aplicării legii salarizării pierd lunar din venit sume care ajung până la 1.300 de lei.  click să citești tot articolul
Politică, 16:19
     Senatorul PNL Alina Gorghiu a afirmat astăzi, după ce Comisia de Monitorizare a Adunării Parlamentare a Consiliului Europei (APCE) a aprobat solicitarea PNL de sesizare a Comisiei de la Veneția privind modificarea legilor justiției, că declarația lui Florin Iordache potrivit căreia Comisia de la veneția nu poate fi mai presus de Curtea Constituțională este greșită și îi cere demisia acestuia, se arată într-un comunicat remis Redacției.  click să citești tot articolul
Bănci-Asigurări, 16:11
     ASIROM Vienna Insurance Group, parte a grupului Vienna Insurance Group din 2007, anunță încheierea mandatului domnului Juraj Lelkes în calitate de Președinte al Directoratului ASIROM, începând cu data de 30 iunie 2018, se arată într-un comunicat al companiei, remis Redacției.  click să citești tot articolul
Companii-Afaceri, 16:10
PRIMUL TRIMESTRU 2018:
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Companii-Afaceri, 15:47
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24.04.2018
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24.04.2018
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English Section
25.04.2018
DEPUTY PRIME-MINISTER VIOREL ȘTEFAN:
     * Bogdan Chirițoiu: "The European Commission will force the future buyer of Sidex Galați to increase the output of steel"
     ArcelorMittal may only sell the Galați metallurgic plant with the explicit agreement of the Romanian state, and the European Commission will ensure that the output of the plant will increase after the transaction, deputy prime-minister Viorel Ștefan said yesterday, in a conference on the issue of major industrial energy consumers.  click here to read the entire article
20.04.2018
     * "Iliescu on trial for all the bloodshed!" was one of the powerful slogans of the University Square, as well as "Iliescu - KGB, go back to the USSR!".
     We, who had organized the marathon protest of the century, knew who Ion Iliescu was, as the rest of the Romanian people took a long time to catch on, even Brucan was wrong in his estimate that the much maligned "stupid people" would take two decades to "awake".  click here to read the entire article
16.04.2018
     * - The Syrian gas attack did not exist, the American missiles were brought down, then where are the dead coming from?!
     * - It is enough to tell Syrians that they are attacked and killing each other?
     Friday, Syria was attacked by war attacks, in which a warship of the United Nations which operate in the Red Sea (according to the American officials), American B-1 bombers, four British Royal Tornado GR4 aircraft (which fired Storm Shadow missiles) and French Rafale jets.  click here to read the entire article
12.04.2018
     New Delhi, March 4th, 2017 - I am in the garden of the Royal Plaza hotel, sitting next to the table of a group of Indians, probably Hindus, two women in colorful saris and two men, all of them in their fifties. They are checking me out, I catch them doing it a few times. A Romanian manea, with heavy Indian influences starts playing from the speakers, I am surprised, I start laughing.  click here to read the entire article
02.04.2018
FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER THE LOSS OF 2.6 BILLION LEI OF 2014
     The Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR) has proposed to shareholders the distribution of dividends of 228.12 million lei, out of the profit of 570 million lei, for last year, this being the first year with such an item on the agenda of the General Shareholder Meeting, after the huge loss of 2014, of 2.6 billion lei, caused by the high provisions and the sale of non-performing loans.  click here to read the entire article
30.03.2018
     The website of the National Bank of Romania still includes the statement that its monetary policy strategy is the direct targeting of inflation.  click here to read the entire article
28.03.2018
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27.03.2018
ALEXANDRU BOTEZ, ELECTRICA SHAREHOLDER:
     * The Ministry of Energy has requested the election of a new Board of Directors, even though the current management was elected in October, for a four-year term
     * The company's directors are entitled to compensation in the event of their unjustified dismissal
     * Challenges in court concerning the prior elections would remain groundless
       The proposal of the Ministry of Energy that the shareholders of Electrica (EL) decide, in the General Shareholder Meeting of April 27th, the election of the members of the Board of Directors, through the cumulative vote method, for a term of four years, even though the current directors were elected in October 2017, also for four years, has caused discontent among some shareholders.  click here to read the entire article
22.03.2018
     "The markets are turning into the markets' greatest enemy", wrote an analyst of Goldman Sachs in a note addressed to its customers, according to an article by Bloomberg, and the jump in the VIX volatility index last month "is a symptom of the financial fragility".  click here to read the entire article
19.03.2018
AS SHAREHOLDER,
     * The president of the Association of Brokers has taken the matter to the County Court of Cluj, to address the capital reduction of 2014 and the subsequent decisions of the company
     * Liviu Stoleru, CEO of Cemacon, told us on Thursday, that "no notification has been received from the company concerning such a topic"
     * The case was recorded on Friday, with the County Court of Cluj
     * BCR sold to BOF for 2 Euros the non-performing loans of 16.5 million Euros of "Cemacon" and "Ambient"
       * UPDATE 15.45 "Cemacon" confirms the lawsuit brought by Dan Paul
     "Cemacon" today sent the Bucharest Stock Exchange, a report whereby it confirms the existence of the lawsuit brought by Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers. However, the officials of the company wrote that they have no details about the case.
     -------
     Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers, has sued "Cemacon" (CEON), acting as shareholder, seeking the annulment of the shareholders' decision of March 24th, 2014, concerning the reduction of the share capital and of the subsequent acts, according to a notification seen by "BURSA".  click here to read the entire article
15.03.2018
THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA ISN'T COMMENTING, EVEN THOUGH BOTH COMMERCIAL BANKS ARE LISTED ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
     The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has blocked the acquisition of Banca Românească by OTP Bank România, according to information which appeared yesterday in the Romanian press, as well as on some foreign websites. Thus, the NBR hasn't issued an opinion on the transaction, even though the time by which it should have done so expired since back in autumn last year.  click here to read the entire article
14.03.2018
RAINER SEELE, OMV:
     * OMV has a budget of 10 billion Euros for takeovers, until 2025 and it is targeting the markets in the Middle East and Asia Pacific
     * Manfred Leitner: "It is unknown how the BRUA pipeline will be implemented, but I don't think that all the gas volumes of the Black Sea that get exported will only go to the West"
       OMV wants to reduce its dependence on the European market, between 2020-2025, and will focus on acquisitions in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, according to CEO Rainer Seele.  click here to read the entire article
07.03.2018
ACCORDING TO AN EUROPEAN COMMISSION DOCUMENT, SEEN BY BLOOMBERG
     The European Union (EU) intends to apply tariffs for imports of 2.8 billion Euros (3.5 billion dollars) in the US, from T-shirts and bourbon, to motorbikes, if American president Donald Trump continues its plan to impose 25% tariffs for foreign steel acquisitions, according to Bloomberg.  click here to read the entire article
06.03.2018
     * The EU, which is preparing retaliatory tariffs of its own against the US, is carrying out talks with the countries that will be affected by the taxes proposed by the Americans: Japan, Canada, Brazil and Turkey
     * German economy minister: "President Trump wants to play a game that no one can win"
       One of the top advisors to US president Donald Trump has recently announced that the US will not make any exception from the application of tariffs set on imported steel and aluminum, even if the EU is preparing reprisals, according to ft.com.  click here to read the entire article
05.03.2018
LAST WEEK, ROMANIA HAD THE BIGGEST IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS
     * In Europe, the cold weather has led to a significant rise in the price of natural gas
       Last week, Romania imported about one third of the daily natural gas consumption to get it through the cold winter period, these being the biggest daily imports of natural gas in the last five years, according to some sources from the energy sector, quoted by Agerpres.  click here to read the entire article
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