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Preliminarii la cursa electorală 2019-2020

Cornel Codiţă
Ziarul BURSA #Editorial /

Cornel Codiţă

Încălziţi sau neîncălziţi prea bine, pregătiţi sau mai deloc, încrezători sau mai puţin încrezători în şansele lor de victorie, ţanţoşi sau abătuţi, bătăioşi sau mai degrabă împăciuitorişti, moderaţi în limbaj sau dînd din prima în istericale şi note pe falset, actorii politici ai României stau deja să rupă gardul arenei în care vor evolua electoral începînd cu vara lui 2019. Cursa este una de viteză-anduranţă, ceva de genul 400 metri garduri. Nu este loc pentru amatori, doar profesioniştii au cu adevărat şanse. Iar ele nu sunt deloc egal împărţite între concurenţi. Dar, să nu anticipăm! Ce este remarcabil în des-făşurarea acestei curse în care, la fiecare şase luni, vom avea de pus în urne alte buletine de vot? Alte nume, altă miză! Care sunt variabilele de care depinde în cea mai mare măsură rezultatul lor final, al fiecărei competiţii în parte şi al tuturor, luate ca un tot?

De departe, verificat de întreaga istorie electorală post-decembristă, variabila pivot rămîne "gradul de mobilizare la vot". Cîţi oameni se vor duce pînă la secţia electorală arondată pentru a pune în urnă un buletin cu vot valabil. Aceeaşi istorie electorală post-decembristă a fixat şi modelul acestei prezenţe la vot: europarlamentare şi alegeri locale, minim; prezidenţiale şi legislative prezenţă medie sau peste medie. În România, prezenţa redusă la vot combinată cu prevederile legilor electorale privind redis-tribuirea voturilor favorizează net PSD-ul; mai general, partidele cu nuclee electorale dure fixe şi militante. După acest model, chiar şi cu un nucleu electoral dur de numai 20-25%, în condiţiile unei prezenţe reduse, 30% sau mai puţin, PSD-ul cîştigă atît alegerile europarlamentare, cât şi pe cele locale. Prezenţa la vot va fi, de asemenea, criteriul cel mai tare pentru departajarea candidaţilor la alegerile prezidenţiale. În acest caz, prezenţa la vot obişnuită este de peste 50%. S-ar putea ca în competiţia electorală din acest an să avem prezenţe la vot "neaşteptat" de mari, iar eu nu m-aş mira nici dacă aş vedea valori de 65-70%. Cît priveşte parlamentarele, pentru mandatul care va începe efectiv în 2021, prezenţa la vot va fi decisivă atît în balanţa PSD-PNL, cît şi pentru soarta reprezentării parlamentare a partidelor de nişă.

A doua variabilă care va marca rezultatele finale ale alegerilor este greutatea "votului de penalizare". Aceas-ta a hotărît cele mai multe şi mai importante alegeri din România post-decembristă şi nu există nici un motiv să credem că şi-a pierdut ceva din atracţie pentru majoritatea electoratului. Iar după cum arată deja terenul confruntării politice sunt încă şanse şi mai mari ca cel puţin trei dintre alegerile acestui turneu electoral să fie adjudecate pe schema votului de penalizare. Asemenea unui nor de furtună, electoratul României pare încărcat mai mult ca la ultimele confruntări electorale de intenţia/dorinţa de a pedepsi prin vot. Cine va avea mijloacele şi abilitatea de a precipita această tensiune asupra adversarului, poate conta, pentru sine, pe rezultate net superioare cotelor date de preferinţele prezentate de sondajele preelectorale... cele netrucate prea grosier, desigur.

A treia variabilă cu rol mare de departajare va fi balanţa dintre "efectul de contagiune" şi "efectul de anti-simetrie". Unul dintre motivele pentru care alegerile prezidenţiale au fost decalate faţă de cele legislative este tocmai izolarea lor de fenomenul contagiunii, considerat la noi foarte puternic (grade de coerenţă măsurate post-vot de peste 60%, mergînd pănă la 80%). Adevărul este că votul de coerenţă a fost măsurat în situaţia aceluiaşi moment de vot, nu cu voturi puse în urnă la şase luni distanţă. Dacă nu există contagiune sau dacă este neglijabilă la asemenea intervale de timp, atunci vom avea patru rînduri de alegeri, independente una faţă de cealală, fiecare cu logica şi bătălia ei electorală. Dacă nu, atunci presupoziţia destul de răspîndită în acest moment în cîmpul electoral din România, potrivit căreia rezultatele alegerilor europarlamentare sunt nu doar importante, ci pot fi decisive pentru şansele ulterioare ale partidelor în faţa celorlalte alegeri, trebuie luată în serios. Pe de altă parte, efectul de anti-simetrie poate anula valoarea unui prim succes electoral, declanşînd reacţia votului de echilibrare la următoarea sau următoarele prezenţe în faţa urnelor.

În sfîrşit, cea de-a patra variabilă cu rol masiv de departajare electorală va fi "evaluarea mizei electorale". Fiecare dintre cele patru momente electorale care se înşiră pe parcursul anilor 2019-2020 are o miză oficială, europarlamentare, prezidenţiale, locale, legislative, dar şi una sau mai multe mize subiacente, la care diferite categorii de electorat reacţionează diferit şi pe care le evaluează după modele diferite. În consecinţă, intenţia şi ulterior decizia de vot se formea-ză, la rîndul lor altfel pentru fiecare dintre categoriile electorale principale (vîrstă, mediu de rezidenţă, nivel de venituri, structuri familiale, structuri ocupaţionale etc.). Tot ceea ce se poate spune sigur acum, cu cîteva luni înainte de declanşarea propriu zisă a marii curse, aşezată călare pe doi ani, este că se va juca "la mize mari".

Opinia Cititorului ( 9 )

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  1. Aici se pot analiza expirați Ponta-Antonescu?

    De Antonescu să ne pară rău unde a ajuns? 

    Sa analizam puțin partidele: 

    PNL reprezintă oameni de afaceri 600 k firme x 4 membrii =2,4k maxim 20 la sută din electorat? 

    Udmr 7 la sută ? 

    Câteva sorcoveli de partide Plus, Ponta partid, Realitatea ... ,5 la sută toate? 

    PSD restul?

    Țară săracă e normal să voteze stânga? 

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    1. 4 membri

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    Alienation content

    Alienation is a state of deprivation whe rehuman needs and potentialities at basic and higher levels of meaning are frustrated and unrealized. Persons become alienated fr om their own true being, when the choices are determined by external forces rather than internal conscious direction. As personal sovereignty is lost, he is losing his identity. Some find their identity in their national citizenship. When citizens lose power over the central decisions that determines their lives, this national identity becoming increasingly shallow. The rising incidence of violence, crime, drug addiction, alcoholism, family breakdown, mental illness, suicides and other symptoms of dehumanization and alienation are critical signs of the growing severity of this problem. Aggregate goals of nation state competition have subordinated human persons to serve as anonymous pawns of national and international policy making. Alienation, defined as a powerlessness of individual human persons to participate in the shaping of their own destinies, is the dominant ch aracteristic of today national security societies. 

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    Sustainable development is an intuitively powerful concept that, as commonly understood, provides a useful guide for development practitioners. It involves trade-offs between biological, economic, and social systems and is found in the interactive zone between these systems. There are a number of international factors that may be necessary, but insufficient, conditions for sustainable development on a national level, including peace, debt reduction, more propitious terms of trade and non-declining foreign aid. There are also several dilemmas related to the concept, including the role of growth as the unquestioned objective of economic policy, techniques for measuring sustainable development, the trade-offs between conflicting environmental goals and the limited time and distance horizons of elected politicians. 1

    „The World Commission does not believe that a dismal scenario of mounting destruction of national global potential for development - indeed, of earth's capacity to support life - is an inescapable destiny. The problems are planetary - but they are not insoluble. I believe that history will record that in this crisis the two greatest resources, land and people, will redeem the promise of development. If we take care of nature, nature will take care of us. Conservation has truly of age when it acknowledges that if we want to save part of the system, we have to save the system itself. This is the essence of what we call sustainable development. There are many dimensions to sustainability. First it requires the elimination of poverty and deprivation. Second, it requires the conservation and enhancement of the resources base which alone can ensure that the elimination of poverty is permanent. Third, it requires a broadening of the concept of development so that it covers not only economic growth, but also social and cultural development. Forth, and most important, it requires unification of economics and ecology in decision-making at all levels.“2 

    „A major challenge of the coming decades is to learn how long-term large-scale interactions between environment and development can be better managed to increase the prospects for ecologically sustainable improvements in human well-being.“3 

    „Sustainabl e development: The ability of humanity to ensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.“4 

    „We take development to be a vector of desirable social objectives. Elements include:  

    increases in real income per capita;  

    improvements in health and nutritional status;  

    education achievement;  

    access to resources;  

    a "fairer" distribution of income;  

    increases in basic freedoms.  

    Sustainable development is then a situation in which the development vector increases monotonically over time. We summarize the necessary conditions for sustainable development as "constancy of the natural capital stock."5 

    „A sustainable society is one that can persist over generations, one that is far-seeing enough, flexible enough, and wise enough not to undermine either its physical or its social systems of support.“6

    „Sustainabilit y: A new way of life and approach to social and economic activities for all societies, rich and poor, which is compatible with the preservation of the environment.“ 

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    The Prospect for Humane Governance

    Our hopes must continue to rest on the democratic energies of the peoples of the world, acting in all their diversity, yet conscious both of the threats that confront them and of the historic necessity to adapt emergent geo-governance to the realization of human rights. 

    Can humane governance become a reality, or is it merely a cry in the wilderness that is partly sentimental, partly utopian? What is known is that some totally unexpected turns of realty recently confounded the "experts" whose conventional wisdom have been allowed to delimit the horizon of plausible hope. 

    Geopolitics is being subordinated to the globalizing requirements of the world economy.  

    Avoidance of war and civil strife, relief of poverty, protection of neighborhoods against crime, control of ethnic, and cultural relations, of the human-centered struggle for security in the world. War itself is a profound source of acute insecurity, as evidenced by the large and rising number of refugees and internally displaced that result, as well as by casualty figures. The human impact is underscored by the realization that 80 per cent of the refugee population of women and children. 

    The perspectives of humane governance stress the accountability of elites and the participation by the peoples of the world and their directly elected representatives. It is necessary to explore the meaning of humane governance in a series of conceptual and policy settings, as well as some implications of conterprojects to shape geogovernance in more beneficial ways than those resulting fr om global market forces.  

    PARAGON’s mission is to promote an integrated, holistic policy framework that facilitates humane governance for human security and sustainable human development.  

    Human security reduces risks. PARAGON sees human security as composed of elements and analytical tools. The elements are freedom fr om fear, want and humiliation through safety, well-being and dignity. All of these elements are supported by rights, justice, services and sustainable human development. The analytical tools of human security include psycho-social analysis to measure the subjective elements (fear, want, humiliation, etc) and developmental indicators to measure the objective ones (rights, justice, etc). 

    Sustainable human development increases choice. Sustainable human development is the means and the process and end of expanding human capabilities for empowerment, inclusion in social processes and benefits through equal access to rights and services, and protecting future generations through sustainable resource and responsible debt management. This leads to poverty reduction. 

    Humane governance incorporates the concepts of governance, good governance and democratic governance. Thus, it is ‘the social capacity to set and achieve objectives’ [governance] with values of rule of law, legitimacy, efficacy and efficiency [good governance] and added values of representation, majority rule, minority rights and equality before the law [democratic governance]. Humane governance incorporates all these and adds the further values of being rights-based, pro-poor, pro-women’s equality, and pro-inclusion in general.

    In sum, humane governance can be advanced through culture, policies and institutions that form an enabling environment for human security that reduces risk and sustainable human development that increases choice within an integrated, holistic policy framework” 

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    Variabilele alegerilor ar trebui intregite cu adevarate mize care sa avantajeze pe toata lumea, nu doar pe cei care vor castiga alegerile!

    Daca as candida as promova aceste valori capabile sa materializeze primul drept al omului, dreptul la demnitate si as completa, dreptul la viata demna! 

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    POLITICAL PILLAR

    Moving to the Future as One nation 

    Vision 2030 envisions a country with a democratic system reflecting the aspirations and expectations of its people. Kenya will be a state in which equality is entrenched, irrespective of one’s race, ethnicity, religion, gender or socio-economic status; a nation that not only respects but also harnesses the diversity of its peoples’ values, traditions and aspirations for the benefit of all. The Vision aims to move all Kenyans to the future as one nation. 

    The political pillar of Vision 2030 is 

    a democratic political system that is issue-based, people-centred, result-oriented and accountable to the public 

    An issue-based system is one that meets the widest public interest. “People-centred” refers to responsiveness to the needs and rights of citizens, whose participation in all public policies and resource allocation processes is both fully appreciated and enabled. A result-oriented system is stable, predictable and based on measurable outcomes (including performance). An accountable system is open, transparent and permits the free flow of information, and is one in which the leaders are accountable to citizens. Such a vision will guarantee Kenya’s attainment of specific goals, strategies and flagship projects outlined under Vision 2030’s economic and social pillars. 

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    1. Valori comune de aparat la nivel european!

      Importante sunt cele spirituale, baza pentru toate celelalte. 

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      The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

      The EU made a positive and constructive contribution to the development of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. 

      The Millennium Declaration and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which expired at the end of 2015, have made an enormous contribution in raising public awareness, increasing political will and mobilising resources for the fight to end poverty. 

      Indeed some of greatest progress in recent years has been in precisely those whe rethe MDGs have helped to focus attention. For example:  

      global poverty has been halved five years ahead of the 2015 timeframe; 

      90% of children in developing regions now enjoy primary education, 

      and disparities between boys and girls in enrolment have narrowed. 

      The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (link is external) builds on this experience. At the core of the Agenda are the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), but there are also important elements on the Means of Implementation and Follow-Up and Review. The concerns of the MDGs are part of the new framework, but it also goes further. The 2030 Agenda incorporates follow up fr om the Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development (link is external). It addresses both poverty eradication and the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development in a balanced and integrated manner. 

      The 2030 Agenda also addresses issues which were reflected in Millennium Declaration but not the MDGs; including issues such as effective institutions, good governance, the rule of law and peaceful societies. 

      A new departure is the universality of the 2030 Agenda – meaning that it applies to all countries at all levels of development, taking into account their different capacities and circumstances. Implementation will be driven by a new Global Partnership ch aracterised by shared responsibility, mutual accountability, and engagement by all. The Means of Implementation for the new Agenda are outlined in the SDGS and the Addis Ababa Action Agenda (link is external). 

      The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (link is external)includes a stronger follow-up and review framework than existed for the MDGs to help ensure the Agenda is implemented for all, leaving no-one behind. 

      The EU has played an important role in shaping the 2030 Agenda, through public consultations, dialogue with our partners and in-depth research. The EU will continue to play a leading role as we move into the implementation of this ambitious, transformative and universal Agenda that delivers poverty eradication and sustainable development for all. 

       

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