Conferința BURSA - Dezvoltarea Romaniei 2018
BURSA 29.08.2018

Andrei Iacomi (translated by Cosmin Ghidovean)
 
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     *  Claudiu Cazacu, XTB România: "United States companies have posted results that even exceeded the analysts' expectations, which were already for 2-figure profit increases"
     *  Liviu Moldovan, financial analyst: "Currently, investors have a «blind» faith in the stock markets, in general, and in that of the US, in particular"
     For the first time in the history of the American markets, Nasdaq has surpassed the psychological level of 8,000 points.
     In the August 27 session, the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index also reached an all time high, ending the trading session at almost 2,897 points.
     The fiscal reform implemented by American president Donald Trump at the end of last year, whereby the taxes on profits made in the US was cut to from 35% to 21%, represents one of the most important factors that have led to the recent rise of the American stock markets to all-time highs, according to statements from the financial analysts consulted by the BURSA newspaper, concerning the recent evolution of the Wall Street indices.
     Other elements mentioned by the analysts include the recent deal between the US and Mexico, as well as the monetary policy practiced by the Federal Reserve.
     Claudiu Cazacu, chief analyst at XTB România, told us that in his opinion, there is a complex of factors that are favorable for the recent rise of the Nasdaq Composite, as well as of the overall US market.
     "First of all, the market has benefited from the very good financial results of the second quarter, in the technology sector, as well as others, that even exceeded the analysts' expectations, which were already for 2-figure profit increases. Essentially, with small exceptions, companies have reported a notable increase in profits, especially following the tax reform (ed. note: implemented by Donald Trump).
     Second of all, the American market was helped by yesterday's announcement (ed. note: the day before yesterday) that a trade agreement was made between the US and Mexico, which was seen as a sign of strength in the negotiation between the US and other partners.
     This has also created hopes among investors that in the end there is a way to reach a deal when it comes to the trade relations between the US and other countries".
     The XTB Romania analyst further said: "Thirdly, the stock market has also been influenced by the relatively balanced statements made by Jerome Powell, the head of the Board of the Federal Reserve (Fed), that the policy rate will increase gradually, thus eliminating the concerns some investors had that there could be quicker increases, given a potential overheating of the economy.
     Essentially the Fed isn't that concerned with the overheating of the economy, which means that the interest rates will not be rising too quickly, with a positive effect on the stock market".
     Financial analyst Liviu Moldovan said: "In the very short term, meaning in yesterday's stock exchange session (ed. note: the day before yesterday), the Nasdaq Composite index, as well as other indices in the US, have received a positive impulse from the fact that the US and Mexico have agreed to sign a new trade agreement, which will probably be discussed with Canada as well.
     This was a favorable piece of news, because the market did not look well upon the attacks by president Trump on free trade, with his sanctions imposed on Europe and China etc..
     But, despite the fact that these events have led to trading sessions with significant drops, the market easily got past that and most likely it would be even higher had this pressure not existed".
     From then on, Mr. Moldovan stated that in the medium and long term, we are witnessing a very long cycle of stock market rise, without a major correction of the American market.
     "From my point of view this is the result of the policies of the Federal Reserve, of quantitative easing and stimulation of the economy.
     The Obama administration has supported the economy, and so far at least, the measures imposed by the Trump administration, to cut corporate taxes from 35% to approximately 20%, favor economic growth.
     Thus, in the latest report, a GDP increase of 4.1% for the US is announced, which is significant for a developed economy. Thus, companies have performed well, with growing sales and profit rates.
     I think that these are the factors which have contributed to the fact that Wall Street indices are seeing record highs, with the Nasdaq Composite passing the psychological threshold of 8,000 points", the financial analyst said.
     *  Claudiu Cazacu: "From a technical point of view, the upwards trend of the Nasdaq Composite index is showing no signs of a reversal"
     Concerning the sustainability index of the Nasdaq Composite, Claudiu Cazacu of XTB România told us: "Currently, from a technical point of view, the upwards trend of the index is still valid, without producing any signals of a turnaround.
     Still in my opinion, there are far more risks which could materialize.
     First of all, politically, there is the risk of a turbulent situation or even of impeachment, (even though there is talk about it only as a possibility, it is just a hypothetical scenario so far, as it takes a majority in Congress in order for that to pass, and the Republicans hold the majority).
     The second aspect concerns the negotiation in the trade relations with China, which, even though it seems to have gone away from being the focus of investors' attention, remains a rather serious problem.
     And the third risk I think concerns Europe and specifically Italy, which needs to vote the European Union budget, which could cause concern among investors in the sovereign debt market".
     According to the analyst of XTB România, there are also other risks, but they are a bit more distant, concerning the situation in Turkey and the Brexit.
     *  Liviu Moldovan: "The American market will probably see a strong correction when the first signs of economic recession show up, which could happen a few years from now"
     On the other hand, Liviu Moldovan told us: "As far as the sustainability of the rises of the American stock market is concerned, we need to take into account that the US market has ignored, for the most part, the negative foreign factors, even surprisingly. For example, the tense situation in the relationship with North Korea or China have only caused short term corrections.
     Even the main fears, which were present a few years ago, according to which the Federal Reserve would quickly raise the rates, thus slowing down the economic growth, proved to be completely unjustified.
     Currently, investors have a «blind» faith in the stock markets, in general, and in that of the US, in particular, which is currently setting the tone for the rest of the markets in the world.
     The market will definitely see a correction eventually, or even enter a «bear» market, but that scenario will probably appear when the first signs of economic recession show up, which could only manifest in a few years".
     Yesterday, around 18:30, the Nasdaq Composite index stood at 8,019 points, whereas S&P 500 was traded at 2,896 points, very close to the previous session.
     The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA 30) index was at 26.064 points, below the maximum of 26,616.71 points recorded at the end of January this year.
     Note:
     The information presented by the analysts is just opinion and should not be construed as trading recommendations. 
 

 
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