Bitcoin on the Rise; What Do Analysts Expect?

Bitcoin, the world's most popular cryptocurrency, has seen rapid growth in the last two months, reaching a new all-time high of around $111,950 in May, amid a combination of factors such as the suspension of trade tariffs announced by the United States, massive capital inflows through Bitcoin spot ETFs, the weakening of the US dollar and a global context favorable to risky investments, according to international media.

The development has fueled the optimism of investors and analysts, who see new records on the horizon, with the $200,000 threshold often mentioned as a plausible target for the cryptocurrency this year. On the other hand, leading economists consider cryptocurrencies worthless, likening them to pyramid schemes.

• Bitwise: "Bitcoin's rarity and robustness give it a unique position to benefit from both fiscal instability and improving market sentiment”

Bitcoin could surpass $200,000 by the end of 2025 and eventually reach its "fair” value of $230,000, Andre Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi, researchers at US crypto fund and ETF manager Bitwise, wrote in an article published last week for Cointelegraph.

In their opinion, the sharp increase in the United States' national debt and mandatory spending that exceeds revenues, aggravated by Trump's proposed tax cuts through the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” are the main factors that could support Bitcoin's rise.

The US Congressional Budget Office projects that the US will pay net interest payments will triple to $3 trillion by 2030, raising fears of a default, according to Cointelegraph.

"Bitcoin's rarity and robustness give it a unique position to benefit from both fiscal instability and improving market sentiment,” analysts at Bitwise said. In their view, if these trends continue, the world's leading cryptocurrency could exceed price expectations by the end of the year. Matt Hougan, Bitwise's chief investment officer, said last month that Bitcoin's price will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, amid growing institutional demand, Cointelegraph also notes.

• Bernstein: "There is a growing interest, at a general level, in the financial innovation generated by blockchain technology”

The analysis and brokerage team at Bernstein reaffirmed its optimistic outlook on Bitcoin, maintaining its estimate of a price of $ 200,000 in the current market cycle, which is expected to end by the end of 2025. However, analysts now consider this estimate "conservative”, according to the websites Investing.com and TradingView.

In the latest report called "Memorandum on Digital Assets”, the team at Bernstein argues that there is a growing interest, at a general level, in the financial innovation generated by blockchain technology, which goes beyond the use of Bitcoin as a "store of value”.

While many investors make a distinction between "blockchain (useful technology) and crypto ("useless')”, the distinction is becoming increasingly blurred. On the other hand, analysts point out that if real companies and institutional investors are starting to innovate using blockchain technology, doesn't this suggest that blockchain networks - and thus their associated assets, such as Ethereum - are gaining value?

According to the Bernstein report, the current crypto market cycle began with the institutionalization of Bitcoin, exemplified by the successful launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, whose assets currently amount to about $120 billion, while the more recent Ethereum ETFs have assets of $9 billion. In addition, blockchain finance is evolving from "retail memes” to blockchains that provide financial infrastructure for capital markets, payments and next-generation fintechs, Bernstein analysts also say, quoted by Investing.com.

• Standard Chartered Sees Bitcoin Price Reaching $500,000 in 2028

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank believe that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 in 2025, then continue to rise steadily to $300,000 in 2026, $400,000 in 2027 and $500,000 in 2028, according to an article published on Binance Square in late May.

There are several factors that the bank's analysts are basing their bullish forecast on Bitcoin:

- Institutional investment: Financial giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity already have Bitcoin-based ETFs. In these circumstances, the Standard Chartered team believes that as more institutions follow suit, the flow of capital into Bitcoin could increase significantly;

- Rarity and halving cycles: With the supply limited to 21 million coins and halving events reducing the number of new coins issued, will play a key role in driving up prices;

- Macroeconomic environment: Amid global economic uncertainty and inflation, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a safe haven-similar to digital gold.

However, analysts at Standard Chartered point out that the projected price trajectory assumes continued growth in cryptocurrency adoption and the absence of major regulatory hurdles. In their view, Bitcoin will mature and become a mainstream asset class by the end of the decade, according to Binance Square.

• Michael Saylor: "The Number of Companies Holding Bitcoin in Treasuries is Growing”

Michael Saylor, the former CEO of software firm Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, says that increasing institutional investment in the leading crypto asset should bring a supply-side shock and a significant price increase, The Daily Hodl writes in an article published on June 8.

"The number of companies holding Bitcoin in their treasury is growing. There are about a hundred or more public companies that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, and every week there is a new announcement. I think we used to focus on the "halvings' (miner reward awards). But right now, the entire natural supply of Bitcoin is only 450 coins available for sale every day. That's about $45 million to $50 million a day at this level. It's all being consumed by companies that have Bitcoin in their treasury. And Bitcoin ETFs are catching up fast. So I'm very optimistic,” said Michael Saylor, who is a fervent supporter of the cryptocurrency.

The former Strategy executive believes that Bitcoin will outperform major asset classes, such as real estate and the S&P 500 index of the US stock market.

"My prediction last July in Nashville was that Bitcoin would grow by an average of 29% per year over the next 21 years. That would take it from about $65,000 (at the time) to $13 million per coin by 2045. I'm even more optimistic about that estimate, but I feel comfortable predicting an average annual growth rate of 30% for Bitcoin over the next 20 years,” Saylor said.

Strategy is the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with a total of 580,955 BTC, worth more than $61.3 billion, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries, The Daily Hodl reports.

• Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama: "Cryptocurrencies have no stable real value; such a medium of exchange should not survive”

Beyond the enthusiasm in the crypto industry and optimistic predictions from major financial groups, Bitcoin has been criticized over time by prominent economists and investors.

Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman has labeled digital assets a "Ponzi scheme” with limited economic value, harshly criticizing Donald Trump, who was then on the campaign trail, for supporting cryptocurrencies, according to an article published by Yahoo Finance in late July of last year.

”The truth is that Bitcoin, introduced 15 years ago - an eternity in the world of technology - remains economically useless. The few exceptions to this uselessness are money laundering and extortion,” Krugman said.

Eugene Fama, a pioneer of efficient market theory and Nobel laureate in economics, is almost certain that Bitcoin will become worthless within the next decade, according to an article published in late January in ProMarket, a publication of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. "Cryptocurrencies are a conundrum because they break all the rules of a medium of exchange. They don't have a stable real value; they have a highly variable real value. And such a medium of exchange shouldn't survive,” Fama explained in an interview on the Capitalisn't podcast, hosted by Luigi Zingales and Bethany McLean.

On the other hand, Fama suggested that if Bitcoin is to maintain its value in the long term, a fundamental rethinking of how economists understand money and markets will be necessary, according to ProMarket.