CONFERINȚA Viitorul bursier al SIF-urilor și FP - Ediția a III-a
BURSA 26.01.2017

CĂLIN RECHEA (translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
 
mărește imaginea
     Investment bank Lehman Brothers announced its default on September 15th 2008, and has forced the global authorities to acknowledge the beginning of an unprecedented crisis.
     Two months later, the Romanian National Forecast Commission (CNP) published the long term autumn prognosis, wherein it estimated the evolution of the main macroeconomic indicators until 2020.
     Thus, the nominal GDP was supposed to increase 14.6% in 2009, compared to the previous year, and in 2015 it was supposed to increase to 1089 billion, after increasing 115.7% compared to 2008 (see chart 1).
     By 2020, the nominal GDP was supposed to increase three times, to 1590 billion lei. Unfortunately, reality had other plans and proved to the Romanian Authorities, including to the National Bank, that it is not enough to ignore a global crisis for it not to touch you.
     According to data from the National Statistics Institute (INS), calculated according to the new European account system (SEC 2010), the nominal value of goods and services in the economy decreased 2.6% in 2009 over the previous year, to 510.5 billion lei, and the discrepancy from the CNP forecasts increased continuously until 2015, even if the European regulations allow including in the GDP estimates concerning the grey market and black market sections of the economy.
     No one demands and expects forecasts that would match reality perfectly, because "making forecasts is extremely difficult, especially for the future", like renowned physician Niels Bohr once said.
     But radically different forecasts in a period of approximately two months?
     It would seem that is possible too. Between November 2016 and January 2017, CNP found new "engines" for the economic growth in the next four years. The nominal GDP will not be 977.2 billion lei in 2020, but 1,014 billion, while this year's amount will be 7.8 billion higher than the initial forecast, of 807.4 billion (see chart 2).
     But the miracle doesn't stop there. Through a simple "adjustment", probably, the real economic growth will not slow down to 4.3% in 2017, down from 4.8% in the previous year, and will instead speed up to 5.2% and will match perfectly the hypotheses used in building the budget.
     Then comes a new acceleration, to 5.5% in 2018, and the annual "growth" will stabilize at 5.7% in the last two years of the forecast period.
     To presidential advisor Cosmin Marinescu, the forecast of a growth rate of 5.2% in 2017 is unrealistic, according to an interview he recently granted news.ro: "It is unclear why the forecast has been revised upwards, after just two months, de from 4.3% to 5.2%", the presidential advisor said.
     In "The report concerning the macroeconomic situation in 2017 and its projection for the 2018-2020 period" it is stated that the basic principles of the draft budget are "transparency, effectiveness, predictability, prudency and performance", and the estimates "have been made using the common methodology and agreed upon by the 28 member states".
     If the same methodology has been used for the autumn and winter forecasts of the National Prognosis Commission, where do those major differences come from, especially when it comes to the real economic growth?
     Liberal senator Florin Cîțu later challenged the "construction" of the budget on his blog, where he said that "the budget is not built based on the autumn forecast of the CNP, as provided by the law, but based on the winter forecast", as it "has been published approximately two months earlier than was normal". Cîțu also accuses the CNP of having "revised" its forecasts in order to match "the vision" of PSD leader Liviu Dragnea, and says that "I will be asking my colleagues in the PNL to bring a criminal lawsuit against the executives of the CNP". "If it is right, we will all get burned", the PNL senator concluded.
     But the extremely optimistic estimate of the evolution of the economy in the next four years is not the only weak spot of the budget. Even if we overlook "transparency" easily, what about prudency? Hasn't the CNP learned anything, and more so our authorities, from the lesson of the crisis that began in 2008? Where does this optimism concerning the evolution of the economy over the next four years come from, when the global trade "landscape" is precisely in the process of undergoing a transformation following the victory of the Trump administration, and the problems of the EU are going through a new phase of worsening?
     The report also states that the "potential GDP will increase at an annual growth rate of 5.1%", whereas "the gap between the GDP and the potential GDP levels expressed as a percentage of the potential GDP will be closed in 2018". But don't we have the opinion of some NBR officials, that the output gap was closed as early as 2013 or Q2 2016?
     Aside from "faith", we must not forget that the methods for estimating the difference between the potential GDP and the real GDP are more or less mechanical, as they are heavily influenced by the growth of lending. Does the new government believe that we are back to the period of "growth" based on cheap loans and ultra-lax lending norms?
     It would seem so, because the report concerning the macroeconomic situation in the next years reflects an unrealistic approach of the evolution of borrowing costs.
     The governmental report also shows that "the yields of government bonds have followed a downward trend in the first three quarters of 2016, and then rise was mostly due to a number of foreign events".
     Unfortunately, we are not given a forecast of borrowing costs until 2020. Even though the president of the PSD has participated in the festivities for the instatement of the new president of the United States, the "expertise" he gained from that has not included the transparency provided by institutions such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) or Government Accountability Office (GAO), even though their forecasts are unrealistic as well.
     On the other hand, there are some signals sent by "reality", even here in Europe. The yield of the 10-year German government bonds increased 141.6% from the beginning of the year, to 0.46%.
     Why would that happen to the strongest economy of the continent? Has investors' confidence disappeared or is the world getting ready for a rise in borrowing costs?
     Yes, the world is getting ready for that, because confidence in major central banks has pretty much disappeared and inflationary pressures are forcing them to raise the interest rates.
     In that context, the economic basis of the Romanian budget for 2017 and the subsequent years is being systematically eroded, just like the cold erodes the mortar of homes built during winter, just to avoid missing any second of the "opportunity" provided by the irresponsible extension of the First Home program.
     Wouldn't the national budget be more realistic if it were drawn up through divination, rather than being "built" based on official "forecasts"? 
 

 
Readers' comments    [ add a comment ] 
Aceeasi sectiune (English Section)
ON MARCH 29TH, JUSTICE MINISTER WILL BE CONDUCTING THE EVALUATION OF THE HEADS OF THE PROSECUTORS' OFFICE OF THE HIGH COURT OF CASSATION AND JUSTICE AND OF THE NATIONAL ANTI-CORRUPTION DEPARTMENT
FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEFAULTS ON FIRST HOME LOANS IS LOW:
Actualitate - vezi toate știrile mai jos.
Politică, 17:40
HOSSU:
     Bogdan Hossu a afirmat că premierul a garantat că se va întârzia înaintarea către Parlament a proiectului Legii salarizării unitare pentru a exista timp suficient "de discuție, dezbatere și sincronizare a disfuncționalităților pe care fiecare sector în parte le-a semnalat până acum", precizând că în următoarea perioadă se va finaliza discuția cu administrația publică centrală și locală, după care se va face o discuție intersectorială.  detalii
Internaţional, 17:27
SUA:
     Un suspect a încercat astăzi să intre cu mașina într-un vehicul al poliției din jurul Capitoliului din capitala Statelor Unite ale Americii, înainte de a fi arestat, transmite The Sun.  detalii
Internaţional, 17:05
     Trei dintre principalii indici bursieri de pe Wall Street, SUA, au deschis ședința de tranzacționare de astăzi în depreciere.  detalii
Politică, 16:28
     Reprezentantul celor mai puternice 12 companii americane i-a înmânat, în public, premierului o foaie de parcurs și o listă cu prioritățile pe care trebuie să le aibă în vedere, transmite Digi24.ro.  detalii
Politică, 15:57
PROIECT USR:
     USR a depus un proiect de lege care introduce obligativitatea etichetării produselor alimentare procesate care conțin acizi grași trans-nesaturați (AGTN) precum și reducerea acestor aditivi la maximum două grame la suta de grame de uleiuri sau grăsimi, motivând că acest lucru ar duce la reducerea mortalității cu 2.000 - 2.500 de persoane pe an.  detalii
Ediții precedente
Newsletter Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn RSS
Jurnal Bursier
29.03.2017
SIBEX
     După jumătate din ședința de marți, piața futures de la Sibiu se situa într-o poziție la fel de slabă ca în ședința anterioară, anunțându-se un nou rezultat modest.  detalii
29.03.2017
BVB
     * Piața, dominată de "deal-ul" de 27,3 milioane lei cu titluri "SIF Banat-Crișana"
       Piața principală a Bursei de Valori București (BVB) a fost dominată, în ședința de ieri, de încheierea unei tranzacții de tip "deal", de 27,3 milioane lei (5,99 milioane de euro), cu...  detalii
29.03.2017
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Acțiunile de pe piețele din Europa au fluctuat ieri, după două zile de declin, generat de temerile investitorilor cu privire la capacitatea președintelui american Donald Trump de a-și implementa...  detalii
28.03.2017
SIBEX
     După ce săptămâna trecută lichiditatea derivatelor a scăzut, așteptările pentru prima zi a săptămânii curente nu puteau fi foarte generoase.  detalii
28.03.2017
BVB
     * Titlurile "Fondul Proprietatea", cele mai lichide
       Toți indicii Bursei de Valori București (BVB) au încheiat ședința de tranzacționare de ieri în depreciere, în contextul în care a fost înregistrat un volum de tranzacționare de 17,5 milioane de lei...  detalii
28.03.2017
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Acțiunile tranzacționate pe piețele din Europa s-au înscris pe un curs negativ ieri, după ce, vineri, Congresul american nu a adoptat normele din sectorul îngrijirii sănătății, alimentând temerile...  detalii
Cotații Internaționale

Curs Valutar

Curs valabil din data de 29 martie 2017
1 Dolar australian...
1 Leva bulgărească...
1 Dolar canadian....
1 Franc elvețian...
1 Coroană cehă...
1 Coroană daneză...
1 Liră egipteană...
1 Euro...
1 Liră sterlină...
100 Forinți maghiari...
100 Yeni japonezi...
1 Leu moldovenesc...
1 Coroană norvegiană...
1 Zlot polonez...
1 Rublă rusească...
1 Coroană suedeză...
1 Liră turcească...
1 Dolar S.U.A...
1 Rand sud-african...
1 Real brazilian...
1 Renminbi chinezesc...
1 Rupie indiană...
100 Woni sud-coreeni...
1 Peso mexican...
1 Dolar neo-zeelandez...
1 Dinar sărbesc...
1 Hryvna ucraineană...
1 Dirham emirate arabe...
1 Kuna croată...
1 Gram aur...
1 DST...
AUD
BGN
CAD
CHF
CZK
DKK
EGP
EUR
GBP
HUF
JPY
MDL
NOK
PLN
RUB
SEK
TRL
USD
ZAR
BRL
CNY
INR
KRW
MXN
NZD
RSD
UAH
AED
HRK
XAU
XDR
3,2342
2,3302
3,1605
4,2496
0,1687
0,6125
0,2324
4,5575
5,2473
1,4687
3,8060
0,2151
0,4950
1,0760
0,0741
0,4763
1,1604
4,2232
0,3229
1,3450
0,6129
0,0651
0,3791
0,2227
2,9657
0,0368
0,1557
1,1498
0,6125
170,1325
5,7499
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
click aici pentru cursurile pieței valutare - istoric
English Section
28.03.2017
ON MARCH 29TH, JUSTICE MINISTER WILL BE CONDUCTING THE EVALUATION OF THE HEADS OF THE PROSECUTORS' OFFICE OF THE HIGH COURT OF CASSATION AND JUSTICE AND OF THE NATIONAL ANTI-CORRUPTION DEPARTMENT
     * Laura Codruța Kovesi: "I haven't been asked to resign, and I don't intend to"
     * Băsescu: "The criminal faction made up of Livia Stanciu, Laura Kovesi or Florian Coldea wanted to take over the Romanian state and has been supported by a barefaced guy like Hans Klemm"
       The chief prosecutor of the DNA, Laura Codruța Kovesi, yesterday had a meeting with Justice Minister Tudorel Toader, after which she stated that she wasn't going to resign as head of the DNA...  details
27.03.2017
     Greece's national motto is "Freedom or death", and the title of the state hymn is "Hymn to Freedom". On March 25th, the Greek republic celebrates its National Day, which marks...  details
23.03.2017
     The survival of empires, and even that of countries that do not harbor such ambitions, depends on the existence of at least two fundamental conditions: a functional economy, that ensures its...  details
22.03.2017
AS THE PROPRIETATEA FUND POSTED LOSSES UNDER THE IFRS SYSTEM,
     * The offer by which the Proprietatea Fund bought back 640 million of its own shares, at a price of 0.91 lei per share, oversubscribed almost tenfold
     * The Proprietatea Fund is waiting for the approval of the ASF for a new capital reduction
       An issue raised by lawyer Gheorghe Piperea, last year - the fact that the Proprietatea Fund has reduced its share capital, even though it was posting losses in 2015, a fact which is prohibited by...  details
21.03.2017
GABRIEL PURICE, BRM:
     * "Our opinion is that approximately 20-25% of the Romanian population really needs the price of natural gas to be subsidized, while the rest can bear its liberalization", according to the Romanian Commodities Exchange (BRM) CEO
      * Purice: "The BRM has never supported or agreed to making it mandatory to trade all the natural gas contracts on the exchange"
     * (Interview with Mr. Gabriel Purice, President And CEO of the Romanian Commodities Exchange)
       The recent debates on the Emergency Government Ordinance 64/2016 concerning the liberalization of the natural gas market starting with April 1st have caused arguments in the Industries Commission...  details
20.03.2017
     * Interview with H.E. Mr. Kisaburo Ishii, The Ambassador of Japan to Bucharest
     * "I don't think that Japanese banks would be interested in opening branches in Romania at the moment"
     * "At present, JICA does not have the right to offer financial aid to new projects in Romania any longer"
     * "Bucharest is missing the big picture in what regards urban planning"
       His Excellency, Kisaburo Ishii, the Ambassador of Japan to Bucharest, arrived in Romania in October 2015.  details
20.03.2017
     * There are market rumors that the Banca Transilvania group, as well as Swiss Capital are the most important players in the elections
     * The ASF can use sanctions for acting in concert to tilt the scales in favor of one side or the other
       The elections for new elections at the SIF are causing tumult on the stock market. What's at stake are the assets of 1.69 billion Euros of the five companies.  details
17.03.2017
     * Bankruptcy trustee RTZ & PARTNERS SPRL has rejected their request of an addition to the agenda of the General Shareholder Meeting March 27th
       A group of "Romcab" (MCAB) shareholders, who together hold more than 5% of the company, has asked for an addition to the agenda of the General Shareholder Meeting of March 27th: the...  details
16.03.2017
AFTER IOHANNIS SENT THE LAW BACK TO THE PARLIAMENT
     The governor of the NBR will not have criminal and civil immunity for his position of president of the National Committee for Macroprudential Oversight, according to the new form of the law which...  details
15.03.2017
CRISTINA CHIRIAC:
     WTCB was created in 1994, as a joint Romanian-French company, in which the Romanian party held 55% of the shares. The World Trade Center București complex also includes the 4-star Pullman hotel,...  details
14.03.2017
     The signals on the domestic market, as well as the ones from the international markets, increasingly show us that the budget "fantasy" of the new government will be very costly for Romania,...  details
13.03.2017
FINANCE MINISTRY SAYS THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEFAULTS ON FIRST HOME LOANS IS LOW:
     * MFP: "The fact that the ANAF will foreclose on the debtors discourages them from defaulting on their First Home loan payments"
     * Piperea: "The ANAF not only forecloses on the debtors, but it also charges penalties of 18% per annum"
     * Ministry of Public Finance: "The program stipulates the total loan cost to be equal to the 3-month ROBOR plus a margin of a maximum of 2% a year"
     * Analysts estimate that the ROBOR will rise in the coming years
     * Ciprian Dascălu, chief-economist at ING Bank: "In the second half of the year we expect upwards adjustments of the interest rate, amid inflation growth forecasts"
       The amounts paid to banks by the National Fund for the Guarantee and Counterguarantee of Small and Medium Enterprises Loans (FNGCIMM) for the First Home Program get recouped from debtors, through...  details
10.03.2017
     * The four big international audit and consulting firms - Ernst&Young (EY), Deloitte, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) - have drawn up the most important bailout banking programs
       Nongovernmental organization Transnational Institute (TNI) of Holland recently published an analysis of the costs and losses borne by the European taxpayers for the rescue of some of the important...  details
08.03.2017
FOLLOWING THE POLISH MODEL
     * BVB: "We are confident that such non-refundable loans could represent a sufficient stimulus for Romanian businesspeople to consider using the Bucharest Stock Exchange for financing"
       The management of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE) wants the Romanian state to subsidize the listing costs for small and medium companies in Romania, following the Polish model, according to...  details
07.03.2017
SOURCES:
     * "Banks don't pay taxes unless they want to; between 2011-2015, out of the 46 banks, 19 paid a profit tax in some of those years, and the other banks never paid anything"
     * "The competent institutions should check whether banks with foreign companies are doing hostile takeovers of Romanian companies"
     * "Expenses with the sale of non-performing loans are fully deductible"
     * "Since 95% of the banking system is owned by foreign capital, banks could freeze the financing of Romania's economy"
       Romanian banks only pay taxes if they want to, as they have a very complicated profit reporting system, according to official, very reliable sources.  details
.