Apanova
BURSA 10.08.2015

Adina Ardeleanu (translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
 
mărește imaginea
     *  Interview with Mr. Patrick L Young, CEO DV Advisors
       Reporter: How do you see, so far, 2015 from a financial point of view, globally and in Europe?
     Patrick L Young: Globally I am worried. The Chinese bubble is bursting, the misguided extrapolation of Quantitative Easing is finally ending in much of the west and we are about to see a huge repricing of debt risk as interest rates rise. We already have a commodity price collapse, are on the verge of a bond bubble collapse and Chinese equities are sickly (albeit after significant Y/Y gains) despite the government essentially nationalising the stock exchange. This challenges the strongest vestiges of my sunny Reaganite optimism! A big dislocation may be imminent and that is a huge concern, as the world economy is not well placed to fight back this time around.
     Europe is a brilliant example of the mess the political classes will make when they believe they can somehow ignore the forces of, let's call it 'economic gravity.' The Euro is a political shambles, Greece is being beggared for a miasma of failures both within and beyond its borders. The single currency project is increasingly attempting to bind together multiple tectonic plates with duct tape which are all moving in opposite directions. No matter how strong the bandages, even carbon fibre composite bindings will break under enough strain!
     On a broader European level, essentially all governments have squandered the opportunity to make economic reforms, so they are now left to manage decline through a dismally unproductive socialist ethos, as opposed to growing which marks an interesting departure, as western Europe has lost its mojo.
     We live in interesting times...and I would wager very volatile ones in the interim period.
     Reporter: What is your view on the situation in Greece? What chances do you give to a Grexit?
     Patrick L Young: Greece is in a hideous situation. The only sane approach - presuming you do not endorse beggaring the population (which curiously it seems the current Marxist Prime Minister does...) - is Grexit.
     The whole affair is a disaster for Europe and Greece. The latter is impoverished, the former looks entirely incompetent and incapable. A third bailout merely renews the fuse of Grexit and the longer the fuse burns, the more likely the whole Eurozone will collapse. The political classes are incapable of evaluating the risks objectively (or are in denial about it). As an entrepreneur and investor, I cannot afford to avoid economic reality in the way the dysfunctional blob of Europe goes about conducting its (to put it mildly) rather disorganised affairs.
     Reporter: What investments do you consider to be most interesting at the moment? What estimations do you have for the next period? What events should investors pay attention to, this year?
     Patrick L Young: I happen to still like exchanges. We are working on several projects in this area, as the digital world perfectly fits with the benefits of exchanges. These network opportunities are enormous - everywhere.
     At the same time, I have a considerable involvement in startups per se and am closely involved in Poland (through a startup group I cofounded "Mission ToRun) and across the world.
     Technology is fundamentally interesting and there are huge opportunities for everybody at every age in the current environment. I am however worried about the overall macroeconomic picture and hence have been selling/pruning my portfolio of conventional assets in real estate, equities and so forth. I have no bond holdings right now - in fact I am more likely to be short of bonds/equities currently...awaiting much juicier yields in the near future (I like P2P / marketplace lending for this reason incidentally).
     The biggest issue to pay attention to is the state of the world economy. China is in difficulty, the US remains sluggish thanks to the leftward lurch of the Obama administration, yet the US expansion is surely closer to an end for this cycle. Europe is a basket case overall. Sorry I cannot be more optimistic on the short to medium term but look at it this way - we live in a world of opportunity and technology on the horizon is simply incredible.
     ...albeit we have to work hard to get government to move out of the analogue era and accept our exciting digital future, even at the cost of the upheaval it can create.
     Then again that could work hugely to Romania's advantage if we can break the remaining influence of corruption and empower a better, broader meritocratic society for the nation which thrives with a nimbler bureaucracy such as, say Estonia's wondrous digital government...
     Reporter: What are at the moment the favorite safe havens?
     Patrick L Young: I struggle to find any truly safe havens. Property and physical assets have generally been pushed up by QE. Stocks and bonds can look frothy (globally - I have not had much time to do incremental Romanian calculations of late). Right now I am mostly watching and playing from the short side. I hold a little Bitcoin and am broadly diversified but all investors will need to be nimbler not merely to profit but to protect their wealth in the months ahead, I fear.
     Reporter: What is the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the markets?
     Patrick L Young: Currently not much. A rush of geopolitical madness to the head of the stubborn EU has been matched by a stubborn defensive reaction from Moscow. The Ukrainians are left in a limbo of bankruptcy - a bit like the Greeks but more militarised. The affair has not been the finest hour for 21st century international politics.
     Reporter: How do you see the asian markets?
     Patrick L Young: Dominated by China. The panda has flu, Asia has a problem until it is cured.
     Reporter: How do you see the evolution on the Romanian stock exchanges?
     Patrick L Young: I am delighted to see how Ludwik Sobolewski has made such progress with Bucharest SE. For the first time in its history the institution is truly beginning to look like a cohesive business where international investors will be attracted. That said, in terms of maturity, Bucharest remains little more than an infant and the danger of backward steps are considerable, especially without government support. I hope Ludwik can continue to build cohesion in the exchange, he has done well so far.
     However given that the total number of investors in Romania would barely fill a large football stadium, let's not delude ourselves, this is still an embryonic business and there are huge mountains to climb.
     Expanding investor education is clearly just one component to an ongoing approach to build an investor culture.
     Reporter: Are you still an investor in Sibex? How do you see this market, from the perspective of the partnership with Athex Clear?
     Patrick L Young: I have held a few SIBEX shares and I dearly would love to see that market succeed. However it has no vision, no coherent understanding of the opportunities available to it and thus is adrift in an ocean where fewer and fewer brokers even connect to it - Indeed I think my shares are back in limbo at the CSD after yet another broker quit the market! Exchanges have enormous potential. That SIBEX has comprehensively failed to exploit any of this, is a terrible indictment of dismal management and a missed opportunity for Romania.
     Reporter: Would you invest in Romania? Why?
     Patrick L Young: Romania remains a people play: marvellous well educated polyglot technologically literate employees. I wish I could employ more of them!
     I maintain some investment in Romania, with highly capable staff helping produce my daily newsletter "Exchange Invest" read by the world's market infrastructure executives from the Chairman of the NYSE across the world... Hence I am sold on the potential of investing more in Romania...
     ...but the bureaucracy and the corruption factors remain wearing. President Iohannis has his work cut out to turn Romania from its current post-feudal approach to commerce into being a vibrant prosperous capitalist democracy. The Romanian bureaucracy is so dispiriting it makes Poland look like an excerpt from Ayn Rand's ideal world - and in reality Poland is pretty sclerotic too! However Romania is just dire to run a business in - expensive, ridiculously bureaucratic and a waste of time that can be used to profit elsewhere. Rampant deregulation is required to reduce the insanity of a system which appears convinced private entrepreneurship is still some sort of anti-social activity.
     However, despite that dysfunction and because of the huge talent pool, I would love to invest more in Romania. I am particularly interested in working with startups and we're investigating bringing my crowdfunding entity "HanzaTrade" to Romania too.
     Reporter: What is the chance of Romanian exchanges, in the perspective on the Capital Market Union?
     Patrick L Young: Capital Markets Union is at that stage where everybody loves it because they all perceive it in a different way. As I put it at the FESE (European Stock Exchange Federation) Convention in Oslo last month: 'CMU is that ravishing dream girl at the prom you have glimpsed from the distance on a perfect midsummer's evening...but once you get up close you may notice she is nether as pretty, interesting or accomplished as you had hoped at first sight.'
     CMU is a huge opportunity.
     Romania is a nation bursting with opportunity.
     The historical record clearly states that both have a severe lack of political ability/will to actually make things work.
     ...and the EU is coming off the back of financial legislation such as MIFID II which is, like so many "sequels,' a dismally pointless continuation of a once worthwhile theme.
     Hopefully it will work out for the best... However when it comes to anything involving the EU, once again my sunny Reaganite optimism is challenged... 
 

 
Readers' comments    [ add a comment ] 
Trimite părerea ta.
Nume (maxim 50 caractere)
E-mail (optional)
Titlu (maxim 50 caractere)
Mesaj
 
REGULAMENTUL MESAJELOR
Acord
Prin trimiterea opiniei ne confirmați că ați citit regulamentul de mai sus și că vă asumați prevederile sale !
Aceeasi sectiune (English Section)
FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER THE LOSS OF 2.6 BILLION LEI OF 2014
THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA ISN'T COMMENTING, EVEN THOUGH BOTH COMMERCIAL BANKS ARE LISTED ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
ACCORDING TO AN EUROPEAN COMMISSION DOCUMENT, SEEN BY BLOOMBERG
LAST WEEK, ROMANIA HAD THE BIGGEST IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS
Ediții precedente
Newsletter Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn RSS
Jurnal Bursier
25.04.2018
BVB
     * Dragoș Mesaroș, Goldring: "Dacă BET reușește să construiască un suport în zona nivelului de 9.000 de puncte, există șanse importante ca indicele să continue să urce"
     
     Piața...  click să citești tot articolul
25.04.2018
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Bursele din Europa au fluctuat ieri, investitorii din regiune fiind atenți la rezultatele financiare anunțate de companii.  click să citești tot articolul
24.04.2018
BVB
     Bursa de Valori București (BVB) a avut parte de un debut de săptămână pozitiv din punctul de vedere al cotațiilor, toți indicii încheind ședința de tranzacționare de ieri în creștere.  click să citești tot articolul
24.04.2018
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Acțiunile de pe piețele din Europa au urmat un curs pozitiv în a doua parte a zilei de ieri, pe fondul unor date mixte privind economia regiunii.  click să citești tot articolul
23.04.2018
BVB
     * Fondul Proprietatea - pe primul loc în topul lichidității
     
     Piața principală a Bursei de Valori București (BVB) a avut parte, în ședința de tranzacționare de vineri, de un rulaj de doar 32,23...  click să citești tot articolul
23.04.2018
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Bursele din Europa au scăzut ușor vineri, din cauza pierderilor de pe segmentul bunurilor de larg consum, generate de rezultatele anunțate de companiile din domeniu, precum "Reckitt Benckiser...  click să citești tot articolul
Cotații Internaționale

Curs Valutar

Curs valabil din data de 24 aprilie 2018
1 Dolar australian...
1 Leva bulgărească...
1 Dolar canadian....
1 Franc elvețian...
1 Coroană cehă...
1 Coroană daneză...
1 Liră egipteană...
1 Euro...
1 Liră sterlină...
100 Forinți maghiari...
100 Yeni japonezi...
1 Leu moldovenesc...
1 Coroană norvegiană...
1 Zlot polonez...
1 Rublă rusească...
1 Coroană suedeză...
1 Liră turcească...
1 Dolar S.U.A...
1 Rand sud-african...
1 Real brazilian...
1 Renminbi chinezesc...
1 Rupie indiană...
100 Woni sud-coreeni...
1 Peso mexican...
1 Dolar neo-zeelandez...
1 Dinar sărbesc...
1 Hryvna ucraineană...
1 Dirham emirate arabe...
1 Kuna croată...
1 Bahtul thailandez...
1 Gram aur...
1 DST...
AUD
BGN
CAD
CHF
CZK
DKK
EGP
EUR
GBP
HUF
JPY
MDL
NOK
PLN
RUB
SEK
TRY
USD
ZAR
BRL
CNY
INR
KRW
MXN
NZD
RSD
UAH
AED
HRK
THB
XAU
XDR
2.8997
2.3784
2.9689
3.8973
0.1829
0.6245
0.2153
4.6516
5.3161
1.4877
3.5027
0.2308
0.4835
1.1073
0.0618
0.4483
0.9320
3.8120
0.3101
1.1042
0.6045
0.0575
0.3538
0.2020
2.7148
0.0394
0.1457
1.0378
0.6272
0.1213
162.6060
5.5082
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
click aici pentru cursurile pieței valutare - istoric
English Section
20.04.2018
     * "Iliescu on trial for all the bloodshed!" was one of the powerful slogans of the University Square, as well as "Iliescu - KGB, go back to the USSR!".
     We, who had organized the marathon protest of the century, knew who Ion Iliescu was, as the rest of the Romanian people took a long time to catch on, even Brucan was wrong in his estimate that the much maligned "stupid people" would take two decades to "awake".  click here to read the entire article
16.04.2018
     * - The Syrian gas attack did not exist, the American missiles were brought down, then where are the dead coming from?!
     * - It is enough to tell Syrians that they are attacked and killing each other?
     Friday, Syria was attacked by war attacks, in which a warship of the United Nations which operate in the Red Sea (according to the American officials), American B-1 bombers, four British Royal Tornado GR4 aircraft (which fired Storm Shadow missiles) and French Rafale jets.  click here to read the entire article
12.04.2018
     New Delhi, March 4th, 2017 - I am in the garden of the Royal Plaza hotel, sitting next to the table of a group of Indians, probably Hindus, two women in colorful saris and two men, all of them in their fifties. They are checking me out, I catch them doing it a few times. A Romanian manea, with heavy Indian influences starts playing from the speakers, I am surprised, I start laughing.  click here to read the entire article
02.04.2018
FOR THE FIRST TIME AFTER THE LOSS OF 2.6 BILLION LEI OF 2014
     The Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR) has proposed to shareholders the distribution of dividends of 228.12 million lei, out of the profit of 570 million lei, for last year, this being the first year with such an item on the agenda of the General Shareholder Meeting, after the huge loss of 2014, of 2.6 billion lei, caused by the high provisions and the sale of non-performing loans.  click here to read the entire article
30.03.2018
     The website of the National Bank of Romania still includes the statement that its monetary policy strategy is the direct targeting of inflation.  click here to read the entire article
28.03.2018
     No investor has expressed interest in the privatization of the "Sanevit 2003" disposable syringes factory of Arad, as part of the last procedure initiated by the Ministry of the Economy, which took over the company in 2012 to save ut from bankruptcy, but since then, several attempts at privatization have failed, and since 2013 the plant hasn't manufactured anything, according to News.ro.  click here to read the entire article
27.03.2018
ALEXANDRU BOTEZ, ELECTRICA SHAREHOLDER:
     * The Ministry of Energy has requested the election of a new Board of Directors, even though the current management was elected in October, for a four-year term
     * The company's directors are entitled to compensation in the event of their unjustified dismissal
     * Challenges in court concerning the prior elections would remain groundless
       The proposal of the Ministry of Energy that the shareholders of Electrica (EL) decide, in the General Shareholder Meeting of April 27th, the election of the members of the Board of Directors, through the cumulative vote method, for a term of four years, even though the current directors were elected in October 2017, also for four years, has caused discontent among some shareholders.  click here to read the entire article
22.03.2018
     "The markets are turning into the markets' greatest enemy", wrote an analyst of Goldman Sachs in a note addressed to its customers, according to an article by Bloomberg, and the jump in the VIX volatility index last month "is a symptom of the financial fragility".  click here to read the entire article
19.03.2018
AS SHAREHOLDER,
     * The president of the Association of Brokers has taken the matter to the County Court of Cluj, to address the capital reduction of 2014 and the subsequent decisions of the company
     * Liviu Stoleru, CEO of Cemacon, told us on Thursday, that "no notification has been received from the company concerning such a topic"
     * The case was recorded on Friday, with the County Court of Cluj
     * BCR sold to BOF for 2 Euros the non-performing loans of 16.5 million Euros of "Cemacon" and "Ambient"
       * UPDATE 15.45 "Cemacon" confirms the lawsuit brought by Dan Paul
     "Cemacon" today sent the Bucharest Stock Exchange, a report whereby it confirms the existence of the lawsuit brought by Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers. However, the officials of the company wrote that they have no details about the case.
     -------
     Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers, has sued "Cemacon" (CEON), acting as shareholder, seeking the annulment of the shareholders' decision of March 24th, 2014, concerning the reduction of the share capital and of the subsequent acts, according to a notification seen by "BURSA".  click here to read the entire article
15.03.2018
THE NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA ISN'T COMMENTING, EVEN THOUGH BOTH COMMERCIAL BANKS ARE LISTED ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
     The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has blocked the acquisition of Banca Românească by OTP Bank România, according to information which appeared yesterday in the Romanian press, as well as on some foreign websites. Thus, the NBR hasn't issued an opinion on the transaction, even though the time by which it should have done so expired since back in autumn last year.  click here to read the entire article
14.03.2018
RAINER SEELE, OMV:
     * OMV has a budget of 10 billion Euros for takeovers, until 2025 and it is targeting the markets in the Middle East and Asia Pacific
     * Manfred Leitner: "It is unknown how the BRUA pipeline will be implemented, but I don't think that all the gas volumes of the Black Sea that get exported will only go to the West"
       OMV wants to reduce its dependence on the European market, between 2020-2025, and will focus on acquisitions in the Middle East and Asia Pacific, according to CEO Rainer Seele.  click here to read the entire article
07.03.2018
ACCORDING TO AN EUROPEAN COMMISSION DOCUMENT, SEEN BY BLOOMBERG
     The European Union (EU) intends to apply tariffs for imports of 2.8 billion Euros (3.5 billion dollars) in the US, from T-shirts and bourbon, to motorbikes, if American president Donald Trump continues its plan to impose 25% tariffs for foreign steel acquisitions, according to Bloomberg.  click here to read the entire article
06.03.2018
     * The EU, which is preparing retaliatory tariffs of its own against the US, is carrying out talks with the countries that will be affected by the taxes proposed by the Americans: Japan, Canada, Brazil and Turkey
     * German economy minister: "President Trump wants to play a game that no one can win"
       One of the top advisors to US president Donald Trump has recently announced that the US will not make any exception from the application of tariffs set on imported steel and aluminum, even if the EU is preparing reprisals, according to ft.com.  click here to read the entire article
05.03.2018
LAST WEEK, ROMANIA HAD THE BIGGEST IMPORTS OF NATURAL GAS IN THE LAST FIVE YEARS
     * In Europe, the cold weather has led to a significant rise in the price of natural gas
       Last week, Romania imported about one third of the daily natural gas consumption to get it through the cold winter period, these being the biggest daily imports of natural gas in the last five years, according to some sources from the energy sector, quoted by Agerpres.  click here to read the entire article
02.03.2018
A POSSIBLE CONTRACT FOR THE SPARE PARTS NEEDED BY PATRIOT MISSILES
     * Aurel Cazacu: "The American partners are trying to cooperate, even if they do not have the obligation to offset, and Aerostar is the best plant in Romania"
     * A rise of over 40% for the Aerostar shares over the last year
       Shares of "Aerostar" Bacău (ARS) yesterday rose 6.5%, to 5.24 lei/share, taking the company's valuation to an all time high - 797.93 million lei, after American company Raytheon announced that it has requested a quote from ARS, to get more information about the parts that might be manufactured in Bacău for the Patriot radar, which is part of the Patriot missile system.  click here to read the entire article
.