BURSA 10.08.2015

Adina Ardeleanu (translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
mărește imaginea
     *  Interview with Mr. Patrick L Young, CEO DV Advisors
       Reporter: How do you see, so far, 2015 from a financial point of view, globally and in Europe?
     Patrick L Young: Globally I am worried. The Chinese bubble is bursting, the misguided extrapolation of Quantitative Easing is finally ending in much of the west and we are about to see a huge repricing of debt risk as interest rates rise. We already have a commodity price collapse, are on the verge of a bond bubble collapse and Chinese equities are sickly (albeit after significant Y/Y gains) despite the government essentially nationalising the stock exchange. This challenges the strongest vestiges of my sunny Reaganite optimism! A big dislocation may be imminent and that is a huge concern, as the world economy is not well placed to fight back this time around.
     Europe is a brilliant example of the mess the political classes will make when they believe they can somehow ignore the forces of, let's call it 'economic gravity.' The Euro is a political shambles, Greece is being beggared for a miasma of failures both within and beyond its borders. The single currency project is increasingly attempting to bind together multiple tectonic plates with duct tape which are all moving in opposite directions. No matter how strong the bandages, even carbon fibre composite bindings will break under enough strain!
     On a broader European level, essentially all governments have squandered the opportunity to make economic reforms, so they are now left to manage decline through a dismally unproductive socialist ethos, as opposed to growing which marks an interesting departure, as western Europe has lost its mojo.
     We live in interesting times...and I would wager very volatile ones in the interim period.
     Reporter: What is your view on the situation in Greece? What chances do you give to a Grexit?
     Patrick L Young: Greece is in a hideous situation. The only sane approach - presuming you do not endorse beggaring the population (which curiously it seems the current Marxist Prime Minister does...) - is Grexit.
     The whole affair is a disaster for Europe and Greece. The latter is impoverished, the former looks entirely incompetent and incapable. A third bailout merely renews the fuse of Grexit and the longer the fuse burns, the more likely the whole Eurozone will collapse. The political classes are incapable of evaluating the risks objectively (or are in denial about it). As an entrepreneur and investor, I cannot afford to avoid economic reality in the way the dysfunctional blob of Europe goes about conducting its (to put it mildly) rather disorganised affairs.
     Reporter: What investments do you consider to be most interesting at the moment? What estimations do you have for the next period? What events should investors pay attention to, this year?
     Patrick L Young: I happen to still like exchanges. We are working on several projects in this area, as the digital world perfectly fits with the benefits of exchanges. These network opportunities are enormous - everywhere.
     At the same time, I have a considerable involvement in startups per se and am closely involved in Poland (through a startup group I cofounded "Mission ToRun) and across the world.
     Technology is fundamentally interesting and there are huge opportunities for everybody at every age in the current environment. I am however worried about the overall macroeconomic picture and hence have been selling/pruning my portfolio of conventional assets in real estate, equities and so forth. I have no bond holdings right now - in fact I am more likely to be short of bonds/equities currently...awaiting much juicier yields in the near future (I like P2P / marketplace lending for this reason incidentally).
     The biggest issue to pay attention to is the state of the world economy. China is in difficulty, the US remains sluggish thanks to the leftward lurch of the Obama administration, yet the US expansion is surely closer to an end for this cycle. Europe is a basket case overall. Sorry I cannot be more optimistic on the short to medium term but look at it this way - we live in a world of opportunity and technology on the horizon is simply incredible.
     ...albeit we have to work hard to get government to move out of the analogue era and accept our exciting digital future, even at the cost of the upheaval it can create.
     Then again that could work hugely to Romania's advantage if we can break the remaining influence of corruption and empower a better, broader meritocratic society for the nation which thrives with a nimbler bureaucracy such as, say Estonia's wondrous digital government...
     Reporter: What are at the moment the favorite safe havens?
     Patrick L Young: I struggle to find any truly safe havens. Property and physical assets have generally been pushed up by QE. Stocks and bonds can look frothy (globally - I have not had much time to do incremental Romanian calculations of late). Right now I am mostly watching and playing from the short side. I hold a little Bitcoin and am broadly diversified but all investors will need to be nimbler not merely to profit but to protect their wealth in the months ahead, I fear.
     Reporter: What is the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the markets?
     Patrick L Young: Currently not much. A rush of geopolitical madness to the head of the stubborn EU has been matched by a stubborn defensive reaction from Moscow. The Ukrainians are left in a limbo of bankruptcy - a bit like the Greeks but more militarised. The affair has not been the finest hour for 21st century international politics.
     Reporter: How do you see the asian markets?
     Patrick L Young: Dominated by China. The panda has flu, Asia has a problem until it is cured.
     Reporter: How do you see the evolution on the Romanian stock exchanges?
     Patrick L Young: I am delighted to see how Ludwik Sobolewski has made such progress with Bucharest SE. For the first time in its history the institution is truly beginning to look like a cohesive business where international investors will be attracted. That said, in terms of maturity, Bucharest remains little more than an infant and the danger of backward steps are considerable, especially without government support. I hope Ludwik can continue to build cohesion in the exchange, he has done well so far.
     However given that the total number of investors in Romania would barely fill a large football stadium, let's not delude ourselves, this is still an embryonic business and there are huge mountains to climb.
     Expanding investor education is clearly just one component to an ongoing approach to build an investor culture.
     Reporter: Are you still an investor in Sibex? How do you see this market, from the perspective of the partnership with Athex Clear?
     Patrick L Young: I have held a few SIBEX shares and I dearly would love to see that market succeed. However it has no vision, no coherent understanding of the opportunities available to it and thus is adrift in an ocean where fewer and fewer brokers even connect to it - Indeed I think my shares are back in limbo at the CSD after yet another broker quit the market! Exchanges have enormous potential. That SIBEX has comprehensively failed to exploit any of this, is a terrible indictment of dismal management and a missed opportunity for Romania.
     Reporter: Would you invest in Romania? Why?
     Patrick L Young: Romania remains a people play: marvellous well educated polyglot technologically literate employees. I wish I could employ more of them!
     I maintain some investment in Romania, with highly capable staff helping produce my daily newsletter "Exchange Invest" read by the world's market infrastructure executives from the Chairman of the NYSE across the world... Hence I am sold on the potential of investing more in Romania...
     ...but the bureaucracy and the corruption factors remain wearing. President Iohannis has his work cut out to turn Romania from its current post-feudal approach to commerce into being a vibrant prosperous capitalist democracy. The Romanian bureaucracy is so dispiriting it makes Poland look like an excerpt from Ayn Rand's ideal world - and in reality Poland is pretty sclerotic too! However Romania is just dire to run a business in - expensive, ridiculously bureaucratic and a waste of time that can be used to profit elsewhere. Rampant deregulation is required to reduce the insanity of a system which appears convinced private entrepreneurship is still some sort of anti-social activity.
     However, despite that dysfunction and because of the huge talent pool, I would love to invest more in Romania. I am particularly interested in working with startups and we're investigating bringing my crowdfunding entity "HanzaTrade" to Romania too.
     Reporter: What is the chance of Romanian exchanges, in the perspective on the Capital Market Union?
     Patrick L Young: Capital Markets Union is at that stage where everybody loves it because they all perceive it in a different way. As I put it at the FESE (European Stock Exchange Federation) Convention in Oslo last month: 'CMU is that ravishing dream girl at the prom you have glimpsed from the distance on a perfect midsummer's evening...but once you get up close you may notice she is nether as pretty, interesting or accomplished as you had hoped at first sight.'
     CMU is a huge opportunity.
     Romania is a nation bursting with opportunity.
     The historical record clearly states that both have a severe lack of political ability/will to actually make things work.
     ...and the EU is coming off the back of financial legislation such as MIFID II which is, like so many "sequels,' a dismally pointless continuation of a once worthwhile theme.
     Hopefully it will work out for the best... However when it comes to anything involving the EU, once again my sunny Reaganite optimism is challenged... 

Readers' comments    [ add a comment ] 
Trimite părerea ta.
Nume (maxim 50 caractere)
E-mail (optional)
Titlu (maxim 50 caractere)
Prin trimiterea opiniei ne confirmați că ați citit regulamentul de mai sus și că vă asumați prevederile sale !
Aceeasi sectiune (English Section)
Actualitate - vezi toate știrile mai jos.
Sport, 10:41
     Prima bombă a explodat la Moscova în brațele campioanei mondiale. Este evident că Germania nu poate câștiga în Rusia, indiferent ce întreprinde. Fără motor, fără traseu și pe alocuri fără combustibil, tancul german a fost o simplă pinata, făcută zob de "copii" zvăpăiați ai Mexicului.  click să citești tot articolul
Sport, 10:40
     Serbia a reușit să își îndeplinească obiectivul, 3 puncte, fără să strălucească. Costa Rica a arătat ca o echipă care mai putea juca cel puțin două zile fără să fie în stare să înscrie. Acest meci a fost absolut necesar pentru a avea un reper atunci când vom urmări o partidă spectaculoasă. E prăpastia din fundul căreia putem privi piscurile.  click să citești tot articolul
Sport, 10:38
     Arbitrajul video, folosit la câteva faze controversate din primele meciuri de la turneul final (Franța - Australia, Danemarca - Peru...), a stârnit vii discuții. Unele decizii par cel puțin ciudate, cu penalty-uri acordate la secunde bune după ce a avut loc infracțiunea în careu sau cu jucători care tot desenează în aer, cu mâinile, televizoare în aer după fiecare fază care nu le cade lor bine. Este evident că arbitrajul video poate corecta multe erori, dar în același timp este evident că folosirea lui în exces ar duce la prelungirea meciurilor.  click să citești tot articolul
Sport, 10:36
     Mică, generoasă, ambițioasă, spectaculoasă, ghinionistă aceasta este echipa națională a statului Peru în general și în special la debutul la Campionatul Mondial. Danemarca a fost modestă, ermetică, cinică. A câștigat Danemarca, fără mult efort, fără posesie și fără prea multe ocazii.  click să citești tot articolul
Sport, 10:34
     Argentina - Islanda 1-1, am spus poanta înainte să relatăm bancul! Așa măcar suntem siguri că se râde până la final și nu doar la final.  click să citești tot articolul
Calendarul BURSA 2018
Ediții precedente
Newsletter Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn RSS
Jurnal Bursier
     * Creșteri pe linie pentru toți indicii bursei
     Volumul consemant în ședința de tranzacționare de vineri a Bursei de Valori București (BVB) a fost de numai 17,7 milioane de lei (3,8 milioane de...  click să citești tot articolul
     Bursele din Europa au scăzut vineri, oprindu-se din avansul generat joi de anunțul Băncii Centrale Europene (BCE) privind încheierea, anul acesta, a programului de achiziții de obligațiuni. Cele...  click să citești tot articolul
     Bursele din Europa au urmat un curs ascendent ieri, după ce Banca Centrală Europeană (BCE) a anunțat că va menține dobânzile la un nivel scăzut încă un an.  click să citești tot articolul
     * Salt de 12,44% pentru SIF Moldova, ca urmare a aprobării programului de răscumpărare de acțiuni la un preț cu mult peste cel din piață
     Volumul consemnat în ședința de tranzacționare de la...  click să citești tot articolul
     Bursele din Europa s-au înscris pe un curs pozitiv ieri, investitorii așteptând decizia de după reuniunea de politică monetară a Federal Reserve din SUA (Fed), care a avut loc în zilele de 12-13...  click să citești tot articolul
     * Volum de doar 27 milioane de lei, jumătate din valoarea medie a anului
     Piața principală a Bursei de Valori București (BVB) a încheiat cea de-a doua zi de tranzacționare a săptămânii în...  click să citești tot articolul
Cotații Internaționale

Curs Valutar

Curs valabil din data de 15 iunie 2018
1 Dolar australian...
1 Leva bulgărească...
1 Dolar canadian....
1 Franc elvețian...
1 Coroană cehă...
1 Coroană daneză...
1 Liră egipteană...
1 Euro...
1 Liră sterlină...
100 Forinți maghiari...
100 Yeni japonezi...
1 Leu moldovenesc...
1 Coroană norvegiană...
1 Zlot polonez...
1 Rublă rusească...
1 Coroană suedeză...
1 Liră turcească...
1 Dolar S.U.A...
1 Rand sud-african...
1 Real brazilian...
1 Renminbi chinezesc...
1 Rupie indiană...
100 Woni sud-coreeni...
1 Peso mexican...
1 Dolar neo-zeelandez...
1 Dinar sărbesc...
1 Hryvna ucraineană...
1 Dirham emirate arabe...
1 Kuna croată...
1 Bahtul thailandez...
1 Gram aur...
1 DST...
click aici pentru cursurile pieței valutare - istoric
English Section
     The reunion scheduled today between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un is taking place in Singapore due to the relative neutrality and the security this city-state provides. Singapore is one of the few countries that still hosts a North-Korean embassy, and many of the deals of the Kim regime were conducted here, according to the foreign press.  click here to read the entire article
     "It is a good thing that the public doesn't understand the functioning of our banking and monetary system, because otherwise I think there would be a revolution in the streets by dawn".
     HENRY FORD, founder of the American automotive industry

     Fed up with subsidizing the commercial banks with their own money, the Swiss, mobilized through the "Sovereign Money" initiative, have proposed the organization of a Referendum which will be held on Sunday, June 10th 2018 - is a historical referendum, revolutionary for the banking industry, of international resonance -, by which the initiators want to amend the Constitution, which would impose to the commercial banks to grant loans only within the limits of the bank's money, forbidding them to issue scrip money and ensuring the monopoly of the Confederation (of the Swiss state) on issuance of money free of debt.  click here to read the entire article
     The "pension apocalypse is coming"! The more or less qualified keep talking in the written press, TV and on the radio. The uncertainty is being preserved - deliberately by some, by the government members out of pure stupidity!  click here to read the entire article
     Where there are many entrepreneurs there is creation, where there are many women entrepreneurs there is divine creation, says Gabriela Mihaela Voicilă, state secretary in the Ministry for the Business Environment, Trade and Entrepreneurship (MMACA). In her opinion, entrepreneurship means joy, a better situation, but less time for the family: "Taken together, entrepreneurship means achievements (...) Every one of us needs validation, for having built, having created something".  click here to read the entire article
     * Piperea: "In the Andriciuc case, the EU Court of Justice has not limited its argumentation to the CHF, but expanded it to cover any currency for which the debtors weren't hedged"
     The courts in the country have begun ruling in favor of borrowers and freezing the value of the European currency at the exchange rate valid on the date the loans were originated, in the lawsuits brought against the banks.  click here to read the entire article
     The urge "Mircea, act like you're working!", back in the days of the so-called revolution of December 1989, was brought back recently by a new "director".
     We are talking of course, about the meeting between NBR governor Mugur Isărescu, and a government "delegation" led by chamber of deputies chairman Liviu Dragnea, together with PM Viorica Dăncilă.
     Sources from within the PSD, quoted by, have claimed that, "in the meeting with the NBR governor, Liviu Dragnea seemed to be looking for a way out, and he seems confused, as he didn't expect his decisions to lead to such effects in the economy".  click here to read the entire article
     Liviu Dragnea's insistence in moving the Romanian embassy from Tel Aviv, to Jerusalem, feeds an older, widespread confusion. Much older. Politically, Jerusalem has been divided from the first presence of the Judeans on the lands of the Palestinians, since back in the days of Abraham and Abimelec. "The indivisible Jerusalem" wanted by Benjamin Netanyahu is a spiritual creation.
     Definitely, pilgrims and locals claim that Jerusalem has a geography, meaning that the city would be compatible with the cardinal points and that is why Palestinians, Israelis and people overall, including those of the UN, EU and the US, speak about Eastern Jerusalem and Western Jerusalem, without anybody being surprised that that is happening at the center of the world, where the god of the Judeans began his creation, starting from the very rock from which later Archangel Gabriel raised Mohammed to visit Heaven, the same place of origin where one of the seven angels "and showed me the Holy City, Jerusalem, coming down out of heaven from God." (Apocalypse, 21: 10), where God is one of the same.  click here to read the entire article
     Financial fair play is a concept that comes from the world of soccer. The notion is simple, don't spend more than you earn in a month, or in a year, regardless of what shareholder, mogul or investor enters the business.  click here to read the entire article
     President Klaus Iohannis has announced that he has decided to send to the Constitutional Court the laws on the judicial system, but also to the Venice Commission. The president has issued a call to the CCR not to hurry and to work with the European entity, saying that after the Constitutional Court gets to issue an opinion on the new laws, a new analysis of the laws will be conducted and it will be decided then if a new reexamination of the three laws in the Parliament will be needed.  click here to read the entire article
     The dystopia of 2169 seems to be 151 years away from us, if we were to watch the American sci-fi movie "In Time", in which New Zealand screenwriter, director and producer New Zealand Andrew M. Niccol has imagined a world in which money has been replaced by the lifespan left and each individual over 25 years old (when they stop aging), are wearing a counter on their arm, displaying how much they have left to live; the economic system relies on transactions paid in lifespan - banks, loans, interest rates - the rich are storing billions of years, while the poor only have hours, minutes or seconds left and when their time is up they die suddenly, as if struck by a mace.  click here to read the entire article
     * Bogdan Chirițoiu: "The European Commission will force the future buyer of Sidex Galați to increase the output of steel"
     ArcelorMittal may only sell the Galați metallurgic plant with the explicit agreement of the Romanian state, and the European Commission will ensure that the output of the plant will increase after the transaction, deputy prime-minister Viorel Ștefan said yesterday, in a conference on the issue of major industrial energy consumers.  click here to read the entire article
     * "Iliescu on trial for all the bloodshed!" was one of the powerful slogans of the University Square, as well as "Iliescu - KGB, go back to the USSR!".
     We, who had organized the marathon protest of the century, knew who Ion Iliescu was, as the rest of the Romanian people took a long time to catch on, even Brucan was wrong in his estimate that the much maligned "stupid people" would take two decades to "awake".  click here to read the entire article
     * - The Syrian gas attack did not exist, the American missiles were brought down, then where are the dead coming from?!
     * - It is enough to tell Syrians that they are attacked and killing each other?
     Friday, Syria was attacked by war attacks, in which a warship of the United Nations which operate in the Red Sea (according to the American officials), American B-1 bombers, four British Royal Tornado GR4 aircraft (which fired Storm Shadow missiles) and French Rafale jets.  click here to read the entire article
     New Delhi, March 4th, 2017 - I am in the garden of the Royal Plaza hotel, sitting next to the table of a group of Indians, probably Hindus, two women in colorful saris and two men, all of them in their fifties. They are checking me out, I catch them doing it a few times. A Romanian manea, with heavy Indian influences starts playing from the speakers, I am surprised, I start laughing.  click here to read the entire article
     The Romanian Commercial Bank (BCR) has proposed to shareholders the distribution of dividends of 228.12 million lei, out of the profit of 570 million lei, for last year, this being the first year with such an item on the agenda of the General Shareholder Meeting, after the huge loss of 2014, of 2.6 billion lei, caused by the high provisions and the sale of non-performing loans.  click here to read the entire article