BURSA 10.08.2015

Adina Ardeleanu (translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
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     *  Interview with Mr. Patrick L Young, CEO DV Advisors
       Reporter: How do you see, so far, 2015 from a financial point of view, globally and in Europe?
     Patrick L Young: Globally I am worried. The Chinese bubble is bursting, the misguided extrapolation of Quantitative Easing is finally ending in much of the west and we are about to see a huge repricing of debt risk as interest rates rise. We already have a commodity price collapse, are on the verge of a bond bubble collapse and Chinese equities are sickly (albeit after significant Y/Y gains) despite the government essentially nationalising the stock exchange. This challenges the strongest vestiges of my sunny Reaganite optimism! A big dislocation may be imminent and that is a huge concern, as the world economy is not well placed to fight back this time around.
     Europe is a brilliant example of the mess the political classes will make when they believe they can somehow ignore the forces of, let's call it 'economic gravity.' The Euro is a political shambles, Greece is being beggared for a miasma of failures both within and beyond its borders. The single currency project is increasingly attempting to bind together multiple tectonic plates with duct tape which are all moving in opposite directions. No matter how strong the bandages, even carbon fibre composite bindings will break under enough strain!
     On a broader European level, essentially all governments have squandered the opportunity to make economic reforms, so they are now left to manage decline through a dismally unproductive socialist ethos, as opposed to growing which marks an interesting departure, as western Europe has lost its mojo.
     We live in interesting times...and I would wager very volatile ones in the interim period.
     Reporter: What is your view on the situation in Greece? What chances do you give to a Grexit?
     Patrick L Young: Greece is in a hideous situation. The only sane approach - presuming you do not endorse beggaring the population (which curiously it seems the current Marxist Prime Minister does...) - is Grexit.
     The whole affair is a disaster for Europe and Greece. The latter is impoverished, the former looks entirely incompetent and incapable. A third bailout merely renews the fuse of Grexit and the longer the fuse burns, the more likely the whole Eurozone will collapse. The political classes are incapable of evaluating the risks objectively (or are in denial about it). As an entrepreneur and investor, I cannot afford to avoid economic reality in the way the dysfunctional blob of Europe goes about conducting its (to put it mildly) rather disorganised affairs.
     Reporter: What investments do you consider to be most interesting at the moment? What estimations do you have for the next period? What events should investors pay attention to, this year?
     Patrick L Young: I happen to still like exchanges. We are working on several projects in this area, as the digital world perfectly fits with the benefits of exchanges. These network opportunities are enormous - everywhere.
     At the same time, I have a considerable involvement in startups per se and am closely involved in Poland (through a startup group I cofounded "Mission ToRun) and across the world.
     Technology is fundamentally interesting and there are huge opportunities for everybody at every age in the current environment. I am however worried about the overall macroeconomic picture and hence have been selling/pruning my portfolio of conventional assets in real estate, equities and so forth. I have no bond holdings right now - in fact I am more likely to be short of bonds/equities currently...awaiting much juicier yields in the near future (I like P2P / marketplace lending for this reason incidentally).
     The biggest issue to pay attention to is the state of the world economy. China is in difficulty, the US remains sluggish thanks to the leftward lurch of the Obama administration, yet the US expansion is surely closer to an end for this cycle. Europe is a basket case overall. Sorry I cannot be more optimistic on the short to medium term but look at it this way - we live in a world of opportunity and technology on the horizon is simply incredible.
     ...albeit we have to work hard to get government to move out of the analogue era and accept our exciting digital future, even at the cost of the upheaval it can create.
     Then again that could work hugely to Romania's advantage if we can break the remaining influence of corruption and empower a better, broader meritocratic society for the nation which thrives with a nimbler bureaucracy such as, say Estonia's wondrous digital government...
     Reporter: What are at the moment the favorite safe havens?
     Patrick L Young: I struggle to find any truly safe havens. Property and physical assets have generally been pushed up by QE. Stocks and bonds can look frothy (globally - I have not had much time to do incremental Romanian calculations of late). Right now I am mostly watching and playing from the short side. I hold a little Bitcoin and am broadly diversified but all investors will need to be nimbler not merely to profit but to protect their wealth in the months ahead, I fear.
     Reporter: What is the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the markets?
     Patrick L Young: Currently not much. A rush of geopolitical madness to the head of the stubborn EU has been matched by a stubborn defensive reaction from Moscow. The Ukrainians are left in a limbo of bankruptcy - a bit like the Greeks but more militarised. The affair has not been the finest hour for 21st century international politics.
     Reporter: How do you see the asian markets?
     Patrick L Young: Dominated by China. The panda has flu, Asia has a problem until it is cured.
     Reporter: How do you see the evolution on the Romanian stock exchanges?
     Patrick L Young: I am delighted to see how Ludwik Sobolewski has made such progress with Bucharest SE. For the first time in its history the institution is truly beginning to look like a cohesive business where international investors will be attracted. That said, in terms of maturity, Bucharest remains little more than an infant and the danger of backward steps are considerable, especially without government support. I hope Ludwik can continue to build cohesion in the exchange, he has done well so far.
     However given that the total number of investors in Romania would barely fill a large football stadium, let's not delude ourselves, this is still an embryonic business and there are huge mountains to climb.
     Expanding investor education is clearly just one component to an ongoing approach to build an investor culture.
     Reporter: Are you still an investor in Sibex? How do you see this market, from the perspective of the partnership with Athex Clear?
     Patrick L Young: I have held a few SIBEX shares and I dearly would love to see that market succeed. However it has no vision, no coherent understanding of the opportunities available to it and thus is adrift in an ocean where fewer and fewer brokers even connect to it - Indeed I think my shares are back in limbo at the CSD after yet another broker quit the market! Exchanges have enormous potential. That SIBEX has comprehensively failed to exploit any of this, is a terrible indictment of dismal management and a missed opportunity for Romania.
     Reporter: Would you invest in Romania? Why?
     Patrick L Young: Romania remains a people play: marvellous well educated polyglot technologically literate employees. I wish I could employ more of them!
     I maintain some investment in Romania, with highly capable staff helping produce my daily newsletter "Exchange Invest" read by the world's market infrastructure executives from the Chairman of the NYSE across the world... Hence I am sold on the potential of investing more in Romania...
     ...but the bureaucracy and the corruption factors remain wearing. President Iohannis has his work cut out to turn Romania from its current post-feudal approach to commerce into being a vibrant prosperous capitalist democracy. The Romanian bureaucracy is so dispiriting it makes Poland look like an excerpt from Ayn Rand's ideal world - and in reality Poland is pretty sclerotic too! However Romania is just dire to run a business in - expensive, ridiculously bureaucratic and a waste of time that can be used to profit elsewhere. Rampant deregulation is required to reduce the insanity of a system which appears convinced private entrepreneurship is still some sort of anti-social activity.
     However, despite that dysfunction and because of the huge talent pool, I would love to invest more in Romania. I am particularly interested in working with startups and we're investigating bringing my crowdfunding entity "HanzaTrade" to Romania too.
     Reporter: What is the chance of Romanian exchanges, in the perspective on the Capital Market Union?
     Patrick L Young: Capital Markets Union is at that stage where everybody loves it because they all perceive it in a different way. As I put it at the FESE (European Stock Exchange Federation) Convention in Oslo last month: 'CMU is that ravishing dream girl at the prom you have glimpsed from the distance on a perfect midsummer's evening...but once you get up close you may notice she is nether as pretty, interesting or accomplished as you had hoped at first sight.'
     CMU is a huge opportunity.
     Romania is a nation bursting with opportunity.
     The historical record clearly states that both have a severe lack of political ability/will to actually make things work.
     ...and the EU is coming off the back of financial legislation such as MIFID II which is, like so many "sequels,' a dismally pointless continuation of a once worthwhile theme.
     Hopefully it will work out for the best... However when it comes to anything involving the EU, once again my sunny Reaganite optimism is challenged... 

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Aceeasi sectiune (English Section)
     Sara Elena Gabriela Dragan, o fetiță în vârstă de 4 luni și jumătate, din localitatea Voluntari, județul Ilfov, a fost diagnosticată cu Renitoblastom Bilateral (cancer la ochi), o boală foarte gravă, care avansează destul de repede.  click să citești tot articolul
     * Dolarul a coborât cu 4,17 bani în fața monedei naționale.
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     Indicele ROBOR la 3 luni stagnează la 3,27%, valoarea înregistrată și în sedința precedentă, potrivit datelor publicate de Banca Națională a României (BNR).  click să citești tot articolul
Piaţa de Capital
     Indicii de pe Bursa de Valori București (BVB) au deschis în depreciere ședința de tranzacționare de astăzi.  click să citești tot articolul
Calendarul BURSA 2018
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Jurnal Bursier
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     * BET-FI, singurul indice care a închis ședința de tranzacționare în teritoriu negativ
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Cotații Internaționale

Prognoza Meteo
Vezi harta temperaturilor
harta temperaturilor
     Prognoza pentru România
     Vremea va fi în general frumoasă și călduroasă în cea mai mare parte a țării, iar indicele de confort termic, temperatură-umezeală (ITU), va atinge și depăși ușor pragul critic de 80 de unități, local în Câmpia de Vest și pe suprafețe mici în Câmpia Română. Cerul va fi variabil, însă după-amiaza și seara gradul de instabilitate atmosferică va fi în creștere și se va manifesta prin înnorări accentuate, averse, descărcări electrice și intensificări de scurtă durată ale vântului, local în zona de deal și munte, pe arii restrânse în sud-sud-vest și cu totul izolat în rest. Punctiform se pot înregistra cantități de apă mai însemnate. Temperaturile maxime vor fi cuprinse între 27 și 35 de grade, iar cele minime între 13 și 23 de grade. Dimineața și noaptea, în depresiunile din estul Transilvaniei, vor fi condiții de ceață.
     Prognoza pentru București
     Vremea va fi în general frumoasă și călduroasă, iar indicele de confort termic, temperatură umezeală (ITU), se va apropia și posibil va atinge pragul critic de 80 de unități. Cerul va fi variabil, cu unele înnorări după-amiaza și seara, când vor crește șansele pentru ploi de scurtă durată și descărcări electrice. Vântul va sufla slab și moderat. Temperatura maximă va fi în jur de 33 de grade, iar cea minimă de 18...20 de grade.
Curs Valutar

Curs valabil din data de 21 august 2018
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click aici pentru cursurile pieței valutare - istoric
English Section
     The Romanian government has lost over 8 billion lei, between 2006-2018, following the failure to update the royalties paid by the oil and gas companies, says Gigi Dragomir, the president of the National Mineral Resources Agency (ANRM), in a report sent to the prime-minister.  click here to read the entire article
      * (Interview with Radu Grațian Ghețea, President - CEO of CEC Bank)
     In banking there are many risks and that is why banks need to be flexible and have as diverse an exposure as possible, which take the market circumstances at the time into account, says Radu Grațian Ghețea, President and CEO of CEC Bank. He told us, in an interview: "We have to adapt to what is happening in the market and we need to do things in such a way that the economic activity and that of the bank both function properly. If we're going with the idea that we want to eliminate every risk, then we'll just stop doing anything. For instance, we have been and we are a bank which heavily funds agriculture, which also means animal husbandry. A few years ago, our exposure to the aviculture sector was rather significant, and when the avian flu came we had to cover some non-performing loans on that segment. Now that the avian flu is done, we are facing the swine flu. What should we do, stop lending?"
     Reporter: Lately, there have been opinions from some experts who are saying that there is a wave of non-performing loans of the ones taken out by the First Home Program. What is your comment on these statements?  click here to read the entire article
     * (Interview with Laszlo Diosi, OTP Bank CEO)
     Reporter: How would you describe the banking market, at the present time?
     Laszlo Diosi: Even though there are plenty of challenges, there are also many opportunities for the Romanian banking system. The lessons of the financial-economic crisis have resulted in a better regulated framework, stable, transparent and predictable. The guiding line of the policies developed by the authorities that are qualified, but in particular by those with a regulatory and oversight role has been characterized by a balance between profitability and systemic safety.
     But there is no shortage of challenges. We are talking here about challenges which concern the digitalization of the banking system and the national and international legislation. The entire system needs to align with complex and sometimes confused regulations.
     Recorded by Emilia Olescu  click here to read the entire article
     * (Interview with Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers)
     The management of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) needs to find out from brokers whether Romania truly needs a derivatives market, says Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers, who was kind enough to grant BURSA an interview.  click here to read the entire article
     Now we know why prime-minister Dăncilă was in a hurry to announce the activity report for the first six months at the helm of the Romanian government: the nice tale of the hike of pensions and salaries wasn't supposed to be overshadowed by the evolution of budget expenses, whose increase has led the deficit of the consolidated general budget to 1.61% of the GDP, from 0.88% after the first five months of the year.  click here to read the entire article
     The public offer started by Vimetco and Conef for a stake of at most 53.77% of the shares of Alro Slatina (Alro) has been unsuccessful, as the issuer announced that due to the unfavorable market conditions, the shareholders, company and underwriters couldn't agree on a price for the volume of 383.79 million shares put up for sale.  click here to read the entire article
     * According to Eurostat, Romania has the biggest governmental deficit in the EU
     The hike of some taxes, in the near future, is unavoidable, according to economic analyst Aurelian Dochia.
     His statement comes as, in the first quarter, the government's deficit has seen an increase over the last quarter of 2017, according to data by the European Statistics Office (Eurostat).  click here to read the entire article
Russia World Cup
     The final tournament of the World Football Cup will end with a gala representation, the duel between Croatia and France. France, the with the most expensive players in the tournament, has met the expectations, Croatia is the biggest surprise the of the competition.  click here to read the entire article
     Cristiano Ronaldo (33 years old) had several hits over the last few days, even though in the final tournament of the World Championship he failed to exceed expectations, as Portugal was eliminated in the round of eight.  click here to read the entire article
     The world is intensely preparing for a water crisis, the most important resource for human life. The signs, on a continental and global level, that there is a water problem are increasingly clear.  click here to read the entire article
     The Bursa Construcțiilor magazine, published by the BURSA press group, has taken the first step in the third decade of existence and has awarded, in this year's Gala, no fewer than 20 awards of excellence, to some of the most important associations in the sector, as well as to companies that have stood out through their activity.  click here to read the entire article
     In the plenum joint meeting of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, which will be held today starting at 14:00, will be debated and put up for vote the vote of no-confidence against the government submitted by 152 members of the opposition.
     The document which incriminates the failures of the Dăncilă government has been read in the Parliament on Monday, June 25th.  click here to read the entire article
     Even without the court ruling rendered in first instance by the High Court of Cassation and Justice in the lawsuit of the fictitious hiring at the Child Protection Department of Teleorman the focus on getting all the institutional levers under the - informal, but all the more important - authority of Liviu Dragnea. But, after his conviction on June 21, this trend will speed up. But only through this kind of concentration of power can the president of the Chamber of Deputies hope to change not only the balance of power - which is already favorable to him, even though nothing is final in politics -, but the legislation based on which he has been sentenced, so that he gets exonerated of any legal responsibility. Or, when the powers of the state are concentrated in the hands of one man, democracy, even though it may be only a façade, moves aside to be replaced by autocracy. And in Romania, the temptation of autocracy, hidden under the veil of illiberalism, is more powerful than it has ever been, after the fall of communism. Could this be just an accident owed to the meteoric apparition of Liviu Dragnea?  click here to read the entire article
     The Romanian Constitution:
     Art. 80 - The role of the president
     (1) The Romanian president represents the Romanian government and is the guarantor of national independence, unity and territorial integrity.
     (2) The Romanian president must watch for the compliance with the Constitution and the good functioning of the public authorities. For that purpose, the president serves as a mediating entity between the powers of the state, as well as between the state and society.  click here to read the entire article
     The reunion scheduled today between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un is taking place in Singapore due to the relative neutrality and the security this city-state provides. Singapore is one of the few countries that still hosts a North-Korean embassy, and many of the deals of the Kim regime were conducted here, according to the foreign press.  click here to read the entire article