Masa Rotundă - România și Rusia în căutare de noi formate de cooperare
BURSA 08.01.2013
Patrick Young: 2012, a lost year for Romania
     Reporter: Mr. Young, how was, in your opinion, the year 2012, from economic and financial point of view, globally, regionally (Europe) and locally (Romania).
     This has been a tough year for many economies and while the world limped along (with a few areas of eager consumer expansion such as Russia), the situation in the EU was precarious at best and little short of dire in the worst places.
     In terms of Romania, it felt to me like another year that was largely lost to growth which is such a pity when we see the wealth of talent and resources in this wonderful country.
     The problem for every government in 2012 has been the need to realize (not achieved by any major government so far) that the old era of the delusional European "third way" of a quasi-socialist government spending to control vast swathes of the economy is simply unaffordable. Now some nations are suffering appalling shocks because the money has run out, e.g. Greece, while others such as Spain have horrific problems with youth unemployment and overall joblessness. Then again, investors are not very motivated to invest in countries where they don't see much potential for reform and here governments have been cowardly in "biting the bullet. Put simply: the era of spendthrift government is over.
     Patrick Young: How do you think the things will evolve in 2013, from the same perspective of financial and economic issues at global, regional and local level?
     Well here we are chatting away with the USA dangling precariously on the precipice of the fiscal cliff. The USA exemplifies the "spend like a footballer's wife' approach to government. In just 30 years "pork barrel' politics have multiplied the US balance sheet from a total debt of 908 billion dollars thirty years ago to now borrowing 100 billion dollars per month. No, don't even think of translating those numbers into Lei, they are grim enough in US dollars! The US government spending limit was increased from 14.3 trillion to 16.4 trillion dollars as recently as 2011. In terms of spending what you cannot afford, it is difficult to tell who is worse when comparing western Europe with the USA! ...and don't get me started about Japan with debt well in excess of 200% to GDP. That is an ugly ratio for any nation!
     Even if the US government manages to turn around its addiction to spending, US consumers may simply stay away from the shops. In Western Europe, there is a total vacuum in economic leadership and governments such as France live in a Shangri-la world where economic gravity can apparently be defied.
     In summary, I am deeply concerned as, unfortunately, many of the chapters in "The Gathering Storm" which I edited a few years back are becoming reality.
     At a regional level, the "New Europe" is going to suffer the tail winds of any storm battering either the West or the Far East. Moreover, the region's economic powerhouse Poland is already encountering difficulties sustaining growth. Only in Russia does there seem to be sustainable consumer demand currently and even that may yet shut down if a sudden western recession hurts demand for oil and gas.
     Overall, I see a challenging year ahead although as a natural optimist I also must stress that there are great opportunities to be found, particularly in the New Europe and especially in Romania. However, funding acquisitions is tough and that will keep a lot of investors on the sidelines.
     Reporter: What do you think about Romanian Capital Market evolution in 2012? Please give some perspectives for 2013.
     Patrick Young: I really don't want to sound overly cynical here but the truth is the Romanian capital market is in crisis.
     Brokers and bankers have been fleeing Romanian investment markets. BVB and SIBEX are both seen as utterly peripheral (at best) to investors and it is difficult to justify maintaining capital markets teams in the face of markets which simply don't even begin to fulfill their potential.
     Adjusting prices may help create a blip but the difficult is that Romania's exchanges are like a pair of corner shops when what we need is a supermarket.
     From what I can see, there is no coherent plan or thinking to actually create a tangible Romanian capital market. As I understand it, there are less than 85,000 customer accounts in Romanian exchanges. Even during a bruising year for stocks, the Warsaw SE added more than 25,000 accounts in one month.
     Put simply: nobody trusts or sees the benefit of the Romanian capital market and there is no leadership to define it going forward. That is a tragedy for the many good people employed in the industry who are being held back by a complete lack of understanding how to go about providing capital markets services to the Romanian and regional economy. It is a very frustrating affair but confidence is a very precious thing and alas, as a whole, Romanian markets do not engender confidence in investors either at home or abroad. The images of Romanian investing in the minds of foreign investors currently is one of liars, fraudsters and cheats...and let's face it that was the one big story which emanated from the Romanian marketplace last year.
     One positive, albeit complex, step will be the creation of a new unitary regulator. I say this not to criticise CNVM but rather that a new unitary regulator can hopefully help mark a new beginning for Romania's markets in every sense. It will be hard work to create this new body but it can do a lot of good and I wish it every success.
     Reporter: We know that you are an active entrepreneur. Would you invest in Romania in the future or advise somebody to do it, in the capital market or any other domain?
     Patrick Young: I have been investing in Romania recently along with other nations in the New Europe and maintain staff in Sibiu. Then again I am willing to be a contrarian investor. Romania's many incredible fundamentals (an amazing qualified, diligent, and enthusiastic, talent pool, low costs of operation and good internet connectivity to name just three core facets) are often over-shadowed by the utterly sclerotic bureaucracy and the perception of corruption.
     At present, I continue to look for investments and am interested both in private and publicly held businesses in capital markets and elsewhere. I see a vast amount of untapped opportunity in Romania. Then again, the problem is that the same can be said of Poland, Serbia & the former Yugoslavia, Slovakia and a dozen other countries in the "New Europe." It's a competitive market for investment and to succeed, a nation needs to give investors confidence.
     Reporter: As a shareholder of Sibex, what do you expect from the new Board? Are you satisfied with the results?
     Patrick Young: I had hoped to see immediate action after the EGM to restore confidence in the marketplace but in fact there seems to be total inaction so far. The market has made no attempt to atone for its scandalous past and the board of directors collectively has yet to demonstrate that they understand the core failings of the exchange.
     Ultimately, there is little confidence in using SIBEX. It has not got a sensible product mix for the markets we are in. The management is not credible and the only plan from what I can see is to attempt a little granular tinkering around the edges of existing products when what the exchange needs is a total revolution and restoration from the ground up. True, Rome wasn't burnt in a day and alas SIBEX continues to fester.
     SIBEX is not so much an exchange, more a discredited entity missing a rich seam of opportunity.
     The current plan for SIBEX is reminiscent of buying a man in a coma a pair of running shoes in the anticipation it will make him fit and healthy again.
     Yet with exchange platforms remaining an exciting arena for development, in the right hands there is still a great opportunity to create a regional marketplace even from the current mess which can within a few years be worth 30-50 million Euros and more.
     Naturally, I am a very disappointed small shareholder. I invested in an exchange with a future, found myself soon owning a glorified ponzi scheme and now we have a very sick enterprise with no clear direction. This is another tragedy of the Romanian capital market...
     I sincerely hope 2013 will be better than 2012 but right now I am not very confident. 
 

 
Readers' comments    [ add a comment ] 
Trimite părerea ta.
Nume (maxim 50 caractere)
E-mail (optional)
Titlu (maxim 50 caractere)
Mesaj
 
REGULAMENTUL MESAJELOR
Acord
Prin trimiterea opiniei ne confirmați că ați citit regulamentul de mai sus și că vă asumați prevederile sale !

1.  interesting...
    (mesaj trimis de eu****** în data de 08.01.2013, ora 12:54)  
 Well a lot of disappointing points regarding SIBEX, but very clear said.
 I love the sentence:"True, Rome wasn't burnt in a day and alas SIBEX continues to fester." that I may concluded for a subtitle for this article " SIBEX contnues to fester..."


 
Aceeasi sectiune (English Section)
THE ROMANIAN DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE STRATEGY / LÁSZLÓ BORBÉLY, STATE ADVISOR:
Ediții precedente
Newsletter Facebook Twitter YouTube LinkedIn RSS
175 milioane metrii cubi de apă
Jurnal Bursier
22.10.2018
     * Rulaj de 39,86 milioane de lei
     Șapte dintre cei nouă indici ai Bursei de Valori București (BVB) au terminat ultima ședință de tranzacționare a săptămânii ușor în teritoriul pozitiv, în contextul...  click să citești tot articolul
22.10.2018
     Acțiunile tranzacționate la bursele din Europa au urmat un curs negativ vineri, din cauza rezultatelor financiare dezamăgitoare raportate de unele companii din sectorul auto și cel al...  click să citești tot articolul
19.10.2018
BVB
     * BET-NG, singurul indice în creștere
       * BET-NG, singurul indice în creștere
     
     Piața principală a Bursei de Valori București (BVB) a înregistrat, în ședința de tranzacționare de joi, deprecieri pentru opt dintre cei nouă indici,...  click să citești tot articolul
19.10.2018
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Bursele din Europa au crescut ieri, în baza rezultatelor financiare anunțate de companii.  click să citești tot articolul
18.10.2018
BVB
     * Rulaj de numai 37 milioane de lei, în condițiile lipsei transferurilor de tip "deal"
       Lichiditatea înregistrată în ședința de tranzacționare de la mijlocul săptămânii a Bursei de Valori București (BVB) a fost de 37,16 milioane de lei, sub valoarea înregistrată în ședința anterioară,...  click să citești tot articolul
18.10.2018
BURSELE DIN LUME
     Bursele europene s-au înscris pe un curs negativ în a doua parte a zilei de ieri, din cauza evoluțiilor din sectorul auto, generate de apariția informației conform căreia vânzările de mașini s-au...  click să citești tot articolul
Cotații Internaționale

Curs Valutar

Curs valabil din data de 19 octombrie 2018
1 Dolar australian...
1 Leva bulgărească...
1 Dolar canadian....
1 Franc elvețian...
1 Coroană cehă...
1 Coroană daneză...
1 Liră egipteană...
1 Euro...
1 Liră sterlină...
100 Forinți maghiari...
100 Yeni japonezi...
1 Leu moldovenesc...
1 Coroană norvegiană...
1 Zlot polonez...
1 Rublă rusească...
1 Coroană suedeză...
1 Liră turcească...
1 Dolar S.U.A...
1 Rand sud-african...
1 Real brazilian...
1 Renminbi chinezesc...
1 Rupie indiană...
100 Woni sud-coreeni...
1 Peso mexican...
1 Dolar neo-zeelandez...
1 Dinar sârbesc...
1 Hryvna ucraineană...
1 Dirham emirate arabe...
1 Kuna croată...
1 Bahtul thailandez...
1 Gram aur...
1 DST...
AUD
BGN
CAD
CHF
CZK
DKK
EGP
EUR
GBP
HUF
JPY
MDL
NOK
PLN
RUB
SEK
TRY
USD
ZAR
BRL
CNY
INR
KRW
MXN
NZD
RSD
UAH
AED
HRK
THB
XAU
XDR
2.9000
2.3862
3.1229
4.0936
0.1803
0.6256
0.2275
4.6669
5.3090
1.4425
3.6267
0.2387
0.4937
1.0844
0.0620
0.4512
0.7209
4.0761
0.2832
1.0953
0.5880
0.0555
0.3598
0.2131
2.6831
0.0394
0.1447
1.1097
0.6282
0.1249
160.9953
5.6653
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
..Lei
click aici pentru cursurile pieței valutare - istoric
English Section
15.10.2018
     Italian finance minister, Giovanni Tria, recently said that the yield of government bonds is not justified by the fundamental aspects of the budget and it is expecting a drop in them, in order for "the negative effects on the banking system to be avoided".  click here to read the entire article
12.10.2018
     * American president criticized the central bank for raising the interest rates
     * Bloomberg: The richest people in the world have lost 99 billion dollars following the drops in the stock market
     * Liviu Moldovan, financial analyst: "There is no real danger of us being faced with a stock market crash"
     
     The stock markets of the world saw major drops yesterday, especially those in Asia and Europe, following the Wednesday evolutions of the American markets. Yesterday, on the markets, panic came as a result of American president Donald Trump against the central bank (Federal Reserve - Fed), concerning the interest rate hikes.  click here to read the entire article
01.10.2018
REPORT FROM ROME
     Some people mistake direct democracy with "the popular democracy regime" of communism. No, it is called direct democracy, because the decision is not mediated by representatives.  click here to read the entire article
26.09.2018
THE ROMANIAN DEVELOPMENT CONFERENCE STRATEGY / LÁSZLÓ BORBÉLY, STATE ADVISOR:
     * "We should more seriously concern ourselves with the durable development concept"
     
     The National Strategy for Sustainable Development of Romania will be completed by October 1st, according to Laszlo Borbely, State Counselor, Head of the Department for Sustainable Development of the Government, who states:  click here to read the entire article
14.09.2018
MREPORT BY TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL
     Globalization has also brought with it an unpleasant effect: cross-border corruption. According to the intermediate report Exporting Corruption for the year 2018, a document drawn up by the organization Transparency International, there is a practice among powerful foreign companies of bribing the public servants of another country when they want to enter the local market.  click here to read the entire article
07.09.2018
DEPUTY VIRGIL POPESCU, VICEPRESIDENT OF THE COMMISSION FOR INDUSTRIES AND SERVICES
     The offshore law will once again reach the Commission, in one or two weeks, according to Mr. Virgil Popescu, the vice-president of the Commission for Industries and Services, the Chamber of Deputies.  click here to read the entire article
05.09.2018
MRS. FIREA'S VERBAL BOMBS
     * "There have been attempts for the prefect to be made a scapegoat"
     * "The support from the government wasn't much to talk about, so if it were withdrawn, there wouldn't be much of a difference"
     Bucharest's General Mayor was heard on Tuesday as a witness by the prosecutors of the General Prosecutor's Office in the case concerning the events which happened on August 10th in Victoriei Square. Before going into the Prosecutors' Department building, Gabriela Firea said she stood by her statements made immediately after the meeting of the National Executive Committee of the PSD and said: "I always speak based on facts, not just in this particular case, but in other areas as well, including politics. I will be answering to the questions of the prosecutor who contacted me and told me I was supposed to be heard in the case which is now being investigated concerning the intervention of the gendarmes on August 10th".  click here to read the entire article
31.08.2018
     The particularly hot weather and the conditions of extreme draught in Europe have brought to light terrible warnings from the past.
     Associated Press recently wrote that in the riverbed of the Elba in the Czech Republic have resurfaced the giant stones known as "the hunger stones", which have indicated over time, the coming of hard times.
     "When you see me, weep", is written on one of these stones, which seems to be considered the best hydrological benchmark in Europe. The inscription is in German and dates back to 1616.
     A detailed analysis of the stone inscriptions was published by the Czech researchers in the "Climate of the Past" magazine in 2013 (author's note: "Droughts in the Czech Lands, 1090-2012 AD", April 2013).  click here to read the entire article
29.08.2018
     * Claudiu Cazacu, XTB România: "United States companies have posted results that even exceeded the analysts' expectations, which were already for 2-figure profit increases"
     * Liviu Moldovan, financial analyst: "Currently, investors have a «blind» faith in the stock markets, in general, and in that of the US, in particular"
     For the first time in the history of the American markets, Nasdaq has surpassed the psychological level of 8,000 points.
     In the August 27 session, the Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) index also reached an all time high, ending the trading session at almost 2,897 points.  click here to read the entire article
27.08.2018
     The capital market was marked, last week, by a number of controversial statements tied to the listing of Digi Communications, starting from the statements made recently by Darius Vâlcov, state advisor on the team of the prime-minister, who wrote on his Facebook page that he has asked the Financial Oversight Authority (ASF) if it was true that the book value of the Digi shares was 1 leu and 8 bani, and pointed out that at the time of the IPO, the shares of Digi were listed at 40 lei and are currently priced at 28 lei (30% down) and keep going down.  click here to read the entire article
23.08.2018
     Angela Merkel inaugurated the highway in December 2005, less than a month after she became chancellor of Germany.
     The highway was built on the territory of the former East Germany, connects Lubeck and the Polish border, after the junction with A11, and goes through the electoral precinct of chancellor Merkel.  click here to read the entire article
20.08.2018
THE NATIONAL MINERAL RESOURCES AGENCY, IN A NOTIFICATION TO THE PRIME-MINISTER:
     The Romanian government has lost over 8 billion lei, between 2006-2018, following the failure to update the royalties paid by the oil and gas companies, says Gigi Dragomir, the president of the National Mineral Resources Agency (ANRM), in a report sent to the prime-minister.  click here to read the entire article
15.08.2018
      * (Interview with Radu Grațian Ghețea, President - CEO of CEC Bank)
     In banking there are many risks and that is why banks need to be flexible and have as diverse an exposure as possible, which take the market circumstances at the time into account, says Radu Grațian Ghețea, President and CEO of CEC Bank. He told us, in an interview: "We have to adapt to what is happening in the market and we need to do things in such a way that the economic activity and that of the bank both function properly. If we're going with the idea that we want to eliminate every risk, then we'll just stop doing anything. For instance, we have been and we are a bank which heavily funds agriculture, which also means animal husbandry. A few years ago, our exposure to the aviculture sector was rather significant, and when the avian flu came we had to cover some non-performing loans on that segment. Now that the avian flu is done, we are facing the swine flu. What should we do, stop lending?"
     Reporter: Lately, there have been opinions from some experts who are saying that there is a wave of non-performing loans of the ones taken out by the First Home Program. What is your comment on these statements?  click here to read the entire article
08.08.2018
     * (Interview with Laszlo Diosi, OTP Bank CEO)
     Reporter: How would you describe the banking market, at the present time?
     Laszlo Diosi: Even though there are plenty of challenges, there are also many opportunities for the Romanian banking system. The lessons of the financial-economic crisis have resulted in a better regulated framework, stable, transparent and predictable. The guiding line of the policies developed by the authorities that are qualified, but in particular by those with a regulatory and oversight role has been characterized by a balance between profitability and systemic safety.
     But there is no shortage of challenges. We are talking here about challenges which concern the digitalization of the banking system and the national and international legislation. The entire system needs to align with complex and sometimes confused regulations.
     Recorded by Emilia Olescu  click here to read the entire article
31.07.2018
     * (Interview with Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers)
     The management of the Bucharest Stock Exchange (BVB) needs to find out from brokers whether Romania truly needs a derivatives market, says Dan Paul, the president of the Association of Brokers, who was kind enough to grant BURSA an interview.  click here to read the entire article
.