Kenya's coral reefs, a ray of hope in a warming ocean

A new study presented in Mombasa shows that a significant part of the world's coral reefs could withstand climate change, partially contradicting the most pessimistic scenarios of climate experts. In the clear waters off the coast of Kenya, coral reefs continue to thrive, offering a signal of optimism in a global context marked by warming oceans, informs AFP. A study presented at the "Our Oceans" conference in Mombasa shows that about 166,000 km² of coral reefs - almost a third of the global total - could be resilient to climate change. The research, carried out by the Wildlife Conservation Society and Macquarie University, is still undergoing scientific evaluation, but raises questions about the more pessimistic estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

• Contrasts with IPCC scenarios

According to the IPCC, between 70% and 90% of coral reefs could disappear at 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming, and up to 99% at +2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. But the new study suggests that the reality may be more nuanced. "Our models point to a more promising future for some coral reefs,” said Stacy Jupiter, a representative of the Wildlife Conservation Society. Researchers say that coral resilience varies depending on temperature, biological adaptation and regeneration capacity.

• Kenya, an example of a fragile balance

South of Mombasa, on Wasini-Mkwiro Island, local communities depend directly on the marine ecosystem. Fishermen monitor their catches, and local teams patrol marine areas to prevent overfishing. In parallel, activities are being carried out to replant algae and mangroves. "We want to preserve this ecosystem as much as possible because we know its value,” explained a representative of the Kenyan environmental authorities.

• Coral bleaching and the effects of warming

Bleaching occurs when water temperatures increase by even 1-2 degrees Celsius, causing the symbiotic algae that feed the corals to be expelled. Although bleaching events have intensified, researchers have also observed faster recovery capacities than previously thought in some areas. In Kenya, for example, coral cover temporarily decreased from 44% to 27% after a severe episode in 2024, but returned to about 40% in less than a year.

• "Living banks” for the future of the oceans

The study suggests that these resilient ecosystems could function as "living seed banks,” essential for restoring degraded reefs on a global scale. "We have a more complex picture than before of how corals respond to thermal stress,” explained one of the authors of the study. More than half of the reefs considered resilient are located in Australia, the Bahamas, Cuba, Indonesia and the Philippines. Although the conclusions are considered encouraging by some specialists, the researchers emphasize that global warming remains the main threat to coral reefs. "Reducing carbon emissions remains essential if we want to preserve these ecosystems in the long term,” warn the experts cited in the study.