ANALYSIS: The remarkable speculations generated by the war in Iran. Today

At this very moment, major speculative opportunities generated by the war in Iran are emerging. A businessperson normally understands that disruptions in energy, the choking of hydrocarbon transport, and geopolitical risk bring both losses and gains. Anyone interested in business must choose a side.

Economic literature and energy‑market analyses observe that, in general, geopolitical crises generate exceptional profits for certain market segments.

I am not claiming that wars are created for profit (although that would not be entirely wrong), but only that certain market structures are prepared to immediately exploit the financial opportunities generated by crises. That is exactly the situation today in the case of the war in Iran.

The market is currently in an intermediate phase: opportunities already exist, but logistical and institutional mechanisms are blocking their exploitation.

I will analyze the three types of opportunities:

1. Energy prices

2. Transport costs

3. Geopolitical risks

• 1. Energy prices

The conflict quickly generated a geopolitical premium in oil prices.

- Brent prices rose above 85 USD/barrel after the escalation of the conflict, according to The Economic Times.

- Natural gas prices in Europe increased by about 50-54%, according to Bloomberg.

These variations reflect the differential mechanism:

- markets closer to the conflict (Europe, Asia) incorporate higher risk;

- more energy‑isolated markets (the United States) are less affected.

In commodity‑market theory, this difference appears through the "geopolitical risk premium,” which is immediately integrated into futures contracts.

Financial arbitrage

Financial arbitrage already exists through:

- trading Brent / WTI futures;

- spread trading between regional benchmarks.

This is the fastest arbitrage mechanism.

Commercial arbitrage

Physical oil arbitrage is much slower because it depends on transport and insurance.

For a more extensive explanation, read: "Energy price differentials generated by the Iran conflict.”

• 2. Transport costs

The conflict produced a major logistical shock.

Confirmed data:

- traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by 94%, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center.

- more than 700 oil tankers are blocked in the Gulf according to Anadolu Agency, although figures vary depending on the source (itv.com mentions about 150 tankers).

- the charter cost of a supertanker exceeded 424,000 USD/day (Bloomberg).

At the same time:

- maritime insurers are withdrawing war‑risk coverage for the Persian Gulf (Insurance Journal).

Economic consequence

Transport costs rise sharply and create regional price differentials.

For example:

- oil delivered to Asia becomes much more expensive;

- Atlantic oil remains relatively cheaper.

Commercial arbitrage

Under normal conditions, traders would redirect cargoes to higher‑priced markets.

However, this arbitrage is currently blocked.

A concrete example:

- the Asia-Europe diesel spread has reached the highest level in the last three years,

- but no arbitrage cargoes have been observed on that route because transport is too risky.

• 3. Geopolitical risks

The conflict introduces a new variable: the geopolitical risk premium.

Observed effects:

- rising maritime insurance costs;

- withdrawal of shipping companies;

- suspension of LNG exports from Qatar (Al Jazeera).

These developments create differences between:

- secure energy markets;

- energy markets exposed to the conflict.

Financial arbitrage

Speculative funds react quickly through:

- long positions in oil;

- regional spread trades;

- hedging in transport and energy.

This type of arbitrage is already active.

Commercial arbitrage

Physical arbitrage remains limited because:

- transport is blocked;

- insurance is withdrawn;

- military risk is too high.

There is no documented evidence that major powers start conflicts in order to create energy arbitrage.

International institutions treat these profits as a side effect of crises, not as their purpose.

However, economic literature recognizes that:

- markets are structured to rapidly exploit price differentials;

- financial actors react immediately to geopolitical shocks.

Practical recommendations for speculators

The conflict in Iran has generated a massive geopolitical premium on energy markets, creating real but extremely risky speculative opportunities. The market is in an intermediate phase: prices and shipping rates have exploded, but physical arbitrage remains blocked by military risks, the withdrawal of war‑risk coverage, and threats from the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps).

• Speculators should monitor daily:

JMIC/UKMTO (Hormuz traffic), statements from Trump/Netanyahu/IRGC/QatarEnergy, Baltic TD3C rates, and the diesel EFS spread (Reuters/LSEG).

Warning: Opportunities are massive on the financial side, but most retail traders lose during geopolitical shocks.

If you do not have solid experience in commodities and tolerance for drawdowns (temporary losses) of 50%+, stay aside or limit yourself to hedging.

Trade with maximum discipline.

• Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent investment advice. Speculation in energy markets in a geopolitical context involves extreme risks, including the complete loss of capital.