El Nino reaches record level and could make 2027 the warmest year on record

This year's El Nino climate phenomenon could be the most intense ever recorded, with effects on temperatures and precipitation patterns worldwide and with the potential to turn 2027 into the warmest year ever recorded, according to experts cited by AFP. Specialists warn that the episode could also provide a picture of temperatures that could become common towards the end of the 2030s. El Nino is a natural phenomenon that causes temperatures to increase at the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, especially in the central and eastern area. The phenomenon occurs when easterly winds, which normally maintain warm waters in the western Pacific, temporarily weaken. Warm water thus returns to the surface and moves eastward. When ocean temperatures remain above normal for several months, more storms form in the region, with effects on atmospheric circulation globally. "Which has repercussions for the entire Earth's atmosphere," explained Emily Becker, a climatologist at the University of Miami, quoted by AFP. Depending on the region, El Nino can determine conditions for warmer and drier periods or, on the contrary, lead to cooler temperatures and heavier rainfall.

• Pacific indicates an unusually strong episode

Signs of the current episode are already visible. In Indonesia, for example, prolonged and intense drought has favored the spread of fires, which have affected hundreds of thousands of hectares. "With more intense iterations of El Nino, we can expect a multiplication of these consequences," Michelle L'Heureux, head of the Climate Prediction Center of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), told AFP. She specified, however, that such developments are not guaranteed. Sea surface temperatures in the "El Nino 3.4 Region,” the reference area used to monitor the phenomenon, are currently 2.6 degrees Celsius above the 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard, based on NOAA data. Forecasts compiled by Climate Brink indicate that the anomaly could reach 3.9 degrees Celsius in November. Such a value would significantly exceed the 3 degrees Celsius anomaly recorded in 2015, a record year.

• The warmest year

The impact of El Nino on global temperatures is felt mainly in the year following the phenomenon. In this context, climatologists Zeke Hausfather and Andrew Dessler estimate that the current episode could contribute to an average increase in global temperatures of 0.3 degrees Celsius in 2027. This development could make 2027 the warmest year ever recorded. "It's like a forecast of the future,” Andrew Dessler, a professor at Texas A&M University, told AFP. According to him, such an increase would normally be expected only around 2037.

However, Dessler said that the additional warming will be concentrated mainly in the equatorial Pacific. Mike McPhaden, a researcher at NOAA's Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory, presented similar estimates. He believes that it is not impossible that, in 2027, the global average temperature will reach 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

• NOAA estimates a 69% probability of a record

The intensity of the El Nino phenomenon is not measured by a single indicator. In February, NOAA introduced a new monitoring method, called the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI). It compares the temperature anomaly in the 3.4 region with temperatures in the rest of the tropical zones, being considered by the US agency a "clearer and more reliable" indicator. Based on this classification, NOAA estimated a 69% probability that this year's El Nino episode will be the strongest since records began in 1950.

• Global warming may amplify the effects

Scientists agree that climate change influences the effects of the El Nino phenomenon, even if there is still no consensus on the extent to which global warming causes the phenomenon itself to intensify. A warmer atmosphere, loaded with more moisture as a result of rising global temperatures, can amplify the rainfall associated with El Nino episodes. In regions where the phenomenon already causes drought, higher temperatures can contribute to further drying of soils.

According to Mike McPhaden, warming tropical seas make the winds that fuel El Nino more sensitive, which can accelerate the development of the phenomenon through convection processes. To this conclusion, the researcher analyzed natural climate indicators from the past, meteorological records dating back to the 19th century, and climate models. According to these data, the amplitude of the El episodes El Nino is said to have increased by about 10% over the past century. This year's evolution will test both the limits of the natural phenomenon and how it interacts with an already warmer global climate.