Study: Global warming will expose the elderly to greater risks than previously estimated

Elderly people will be exposed to higher levels of dangerous heat in the coming decades than previously anticipated, amid global warming and an aging population, according to a study published in the journal "The Lancet Planetary Health" and cited by AFP.

• Previous models would have underestimated the risks

Researchers at Stanford University in the United States have analyzed the extent to which climate warming could expose the elderly to intolerable temperature levels by the year 2100. The results of the simulations take on increased relevance in the context in which Europe and North America are experiencing an exceptionally hot summer. France was among the countries most affected by the abnormally high temperatures, recording several heat waves. One of these, which occurred at the end of June, was of unprecedented magnitude and was associated with an excess mortality of more than 6,000 deaths. According to the researchers, previous studies on the impact of high temperatures on the elderly may have significantly underestimated the risks, as they were based in part on knowledge that has since been outdated.

• Wet bulb temperature, a key indicator

One of the central elements of the research is the wet bulb temperature, an indicator that takes into account both air temperature and humidity. The same temperature can become considerably more dangerous when accompanied by high humidity. However, the risks associated with certain levels of wet bulb temperature have long been measured mainly in young and healthy people. More recent research, which included elderly people, indicates that the effects of heat on this category of population have been underestimated. The authors of the study integrated these newer results into models that also take into account the projected aging of the world population in the coming decades.

The researchers conclude: "unbearable heat will affect many more people than previously estimated, on a much larger scale and for longer periods of time." In a scenario in which global temperatures rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period by 2100, approximately 22% of people over the age of 60 would be exposed to dangerous temperatures for more than a month each year, according to the models analyzed. AFP states that the results depend on a series of methodological choices.

The researchers point out that the risk is higher in countries where significant segments of the population do not have the necessary means to protect themselves from extreme temperatures.

• Access to air conditioning and reducing emissions

The authors of the study support the need for measures to facilitate access to heat protection measures, including air conditioning devices, for the vulnerable population. At the same time, researchers emphasize that adaptation measures must be accompanied by reductions in carbon emissions, to limit global warming and future exposure to extreme temperatures.