Is the Deveselu base in danger?

Following the outbreak of the armed conflict in the Middle East, between the US and Israel, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other, which resulted in the killing of the first echelon of leaders in Tehran and the bombing, in retaliation, of American bases located in the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, there was discussion in the Romanian political space about a possible retaliation by the Iranians on the American bases in our country, from Mihail Kogălniceanu and from Deveselu.

The first reaction came from Radu Miruţă, the Minister of National Defense, who stated: "Following the analyses we have at this moment, in the context of security developments in Iran, there are no indications that point to a direct military threat to the territory of Romania. From the discussions held with the Chief of Defense Staff, I was informed about the adaptation of the defense device and additional precautionary measures, in order to strengthen the level of vigilance and to maintain at optimal parameters all the systems that support the rapid reaction forces. The Romanian Army constantly carries out monitoring and protection missions in all areas - air, maritime, land, information and cyber - having the capacity to quickly identify any risk and to intervene without delay. We maintain close and permanent coordination with our allies, at all levels, to guarantee Romania's security."

Later, in a press release, the Ministry of National Defense stated: "From the data we have at this time, given the evolution of the security situation in Iran, there is no military threat to the national territory. The Romanian Army has permanent forces on duty that ensure surveillance of the air, naval, land, information and cyber environments, as well as threat detection and immediate response. Military and civilian specialists are on duty daily, 24/7, in permanence and intervention services. The army has adjusted its posture and measures have been ordered to increase vigilance and prepare the systems that complement the immediate reaction forces. The United States naval facility at Deveselu, integrated into the NATO command and control system, ensures anti-ballistic protection against emerging threats from outside the Euro-Atlantic area. The Ministry of National Defense is in permanent contact with the allies and coordinates with them at all levels."

The assurances offered above are also shared by military analyst Aurel Cazacu, who believes that, at this moment, there is no risk of our country being drawn into the conflict in the Middle East.

"You have seen that they have now attacked American military bases in Arab countries: in Bahrain, in Qatar, in Kuwait, in Saudi Arabia, in the Emirates. They will attack the areas from where they can be attacked. We have seen that the American army has brought tanker planes to Bulgaria, so, for now, Romania has not exposed itself from this point of view. Romania is exposed from the control side through the radar systems that exist, and the radar systems in Romania can also see Iran. But the radar and support systems are not only from Romania. They have no reason to come to Romania because the attack and coordination part of the flights on Iran is not done from Romania. The coordination is done through the control systems in the Persian Gulf area, plus the ship part and the satellite part that the Americans and the Israelis have developed there", Aurel Cazacu specified for the BURSA newspaper.

Regarding the incident in Cyprus, where an Iranian drone was intercepted while heading towards a British military base, the military analyst claimed that it was an attempt at deterrence.

"Being a British base, Iran attacked it because Britain announced that it would join Israel and the US. It was an attack to divert attention; like any military man who does not want to give up power, you send the message that if you anger me, I will react, even if it is on the territory of a European state,” said Aurel Cazacu.

He added: "I believe that Romania will not be attacked, so it will not be part of a military war, a classic war. In the worst case, Romania will have economic effects, due to the increase in oil prices and due to problems that may have negative effects on the economic relations of Romanian companies with companies in the Gulf area, including Iran. (...) Here it depends on how quickly there will be an agreement: first of all, a ceasefire and then peace, which will take some time and is not simple. My opinion is that it depends on the two great leaders, the USA and, in its shadow, Europe, but it will also depend on China and Russia. The effects will be economic because there are companies and Romanians who work there, there are tourism problems and there are Romanians who have taken their financial reserves to the East, invested there, and such a conflict creates a state of tension and insecurity."

• Hybrid warfare, a risk for the EU

Asked whether we should still fear possible terrorist attacks that would be planned by Iranian networks in Europe, according to recent statements by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Aurel Cazacu told us that there is a risk in this regard, but it is managed by the law enforcement agencies in our country and the intelligence services.

Aurel Cazacu pointed out: "Hybrid and asymmetric warfare is dangerous. They can carry out attacks in Europe, because there are enough Iranians here who have been "on standby' until now. Leaders in Germany, France and the northern countries are taking preventive measures; mentioning a risk allows them to justify costs and take measures. I can tell you that in Romania, too, the embassies of NATO countries have doubled their security, which is visible. Given the large number of citizens of Arab origin (Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds) in Europe, control must be exercised. The bodies equivalent to the CSAT in those countries must issue measures that allow for expenses, so that, in the event of attacks, they are not reproached for not having acted." The military analyst also referred to the current state of waiting manifested by Russia and China, Iran's allies in the BRICS, stating that the Beijing authorities are not intervening because the attacks carried out by the US and Israel in Iran have not affected Chinese commercial interests.

Aurel Cazacu stated: "Israel bombed strategic points in Iran, but did not bomb the port areas where Chinese tankers load, because no one can afford to bother China. Even the US needs China to maintain the balance of the three great powers. It is impossible without China, and next to China is Russia. In my opinion, the Americans and Israel want to get their hands on Iran's resources, which, in addition to oil and gas, also has rare metals. If China's supply from Venezuela or Iran is cut off, it will receive oil from Russia, with which it shares a border; no one can stop Putin from delivering as much as China needs. It is also interesting to follow India's attitude; a week ago, Prime Minister Modi was in the United States and in Israel. The problems are very complex."

Mr. Cazacu claims that if the current conflict continues for four or five weeks, as US President Donald Trump said on Sunday, we will witness an economic disaster throughout the Middle East, an economic disaster that will have effects on the global economy.

Regarding our country, he mentioned that the authorities are making efforts to bring home the over 1,500 Romanians in the Gulf area and claims that political leaders in Bucharest must assure citizens that our country will not be involved in this new conflict around the world.