WMO: Temperatures to remain at record levels in the coming years

The global average temperature risks exceeding the critical threshold of +1.5°C in the next five years, warns a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), carried out in collaboration with the Met Office in the United Kingdom. According to the updated forecasts, there is a 70% probability that the entire period 2025-2029 will exceed this key threshold of the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 to limit global warming, informs le Figaro.

• An increasingly unstable climate

The year 2024 was already the warmest on record, with a global average temperature of +1.55°C compared to the pre-industrial period. Experts warn that every fraction of a degree more means: more intense heat waves, extreme rainfall, more frequent droughts, melting Arctic ice and glaciers, warming oceans and rising sea levels. "This report shows no signs of slowing down the warming, which means the negative impacts on economies, lives and ecosystems will increase," said Ko Barrett, Assistant Secretary-General of the WMO.

• Heat records in the coming years

The report estimates: 80% chance that at least one of the years 2025-2029 will exceed the absolute record of 2024, 86% chance that one of these years will exceed the +1.5°C threshold, although this does not automatically mean that the Paris Agreement has been violated - the threshold is considered exceeded only when the 20-year average reaches this value.

• Arctic, at the forefront of warming

The increase in temperatures is much faster in the Arctic regions: in the next five winters, temperatures will be, on average, 2.4°C higher than in the period 1991-2020.

A massive reduction in sea ice is expected in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. In addition, precipitation will be above average in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and northern Siberia, while the Amazon will suffer a decrease in precipitation amounts, amplifying the risks of tropical forest degradation. For Davide Faranda, CNRS researcher in climatology, the report is "yet another alarm bell": "If we want to remain in a safe climate zone, we must immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions and accelerate the energy transition. Postponement is no longer an option."

The Paris Agreement aims to keep global temperature increases below +2°C and, ideally, below +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Exceeding these limits increases the risk of irreversible climate change.