Ukraine's grain harvest at risk of falling by 10%

Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest could fall by 10% to about 51 million tonnes, compared with 56.7 million tonnes in 2024, according to the most pessimistic estimates, Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval said yesterday, Reuters reports, according to Agerpres.

Ukraine is a major global producer of grains and oilseeds, but the harvest depends on favorable weather conditions in the autumn and spring months when sowing work is carried out. Military risks created by the ongoing Russian invasion are also reducing crop production because farmers are scared or unable to plant and harvest crops. Significant portions of Ukraine's territory have been conquered or are mined.

"A difficult season awaits us,” Koval told Reuters, noting: "An abnormally warm winter, at first there was no moisture, then prolonged rains postponed the sowing campaign in some regions for two weeks. Therefore, we expect a smaller harvest. The most pessimistic forecast points to a 10% decrease. According to our estimates, the grain harvest will be 10% lower and the oilseed harvest by 5%. This is certainly not a failure, but God willing, we will harvest everything.” Presenting the first detailed forecasts for 2025, Koval said that Ukraine could harvest about 26 million tons of corn, 4.5 million tons of barley, 1.6 million tons of small grains, 11.5 million tons of sunflower seeds and 11 million tons of sugar beet. As for wheat, Koval estimated that the harvest could be somewhere between 20 and 22 million tons, and the final figure will depend on weather developments and war-related factors.

The Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture also said that the 2025 oilseed harvest could drop to about 20.16 million tons, from 21.18 million tons in 2024, among other things due to a drop in rapeseed production by 600,000 tons.

Ukraine is the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil.

Koval declined to give an estimate for Ukraine's grain exports in the 2025/2026 season, given that final production figures are still unclear, but analysts say exports will total 40.9 million tonnes, including 15 to 15.5 million tonnes of wheat.

Last week, analysts at ASAP Agri estimated that Ukraine's wheat exports would decline in the 2025/2026 season due to possible changes to the EU's import policy, uncertain prospects for this year's harvest and better prospects for harvests in EU importing countries.