Warning: 2026 could bring one of the most severe bushfire seasons in recent history

Burnfires are set to reach an exceptionally high level globally this year, amid climate change and the possible return of the El Niño phenomenon, warn researchers from Imperial College London, cited by AFP. According to specialists, from the beginning of the year to May 6, approximately 163 million hectares have burned worldwide, 50% above the average recorded for the same period in the 2012-2025 period and 20% above the previous record recorded since global monitoring began in 2012. Theodore Keeping, a researcher at Imperial College London, says that the fire season has started "very strongly" and the current data points to a "particularly severe year". The information comes from the Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which centralizes data on the areas affected by fires worldwide. By comparison, the average area burned by the beginning of May between 2012 and 2025 was approximately 110 million hectares.

• Africa and the Sahel, among the most affected regions

The situation is particularly serious in Africa, especially in the states in the west of the continent and in the Sahel region. Researchers explain the phenomenon by the so-called "climate whiplash" - the rapid alternation between periods of abundant rainfall, which stimulate the growth of vegetation, and episodes of intense drought, which transform this vegetation into ideal fuel for fires.

• El Niño could amplify the risk worldwide

Meteorologists warn that the return of the El Niño phenomenon, anticipated for the period May-July, could further increase the risk of extreme fires.

The World Meteorological Organization has announced that the probability of this climate phenomenon is increasing, while the opposite influence of the La Niña phenomenon is decreasing. El Niño causes ocean temperatures in the Pacific to rise and influences weather patterns around the globe, favoring heat waves and drought in many regions. According to Theodore Keeping, a strong El Niño episode could generate the highest probability of extreme and dangerous fires in recent history.

• Australia, North America and the Amazon, at risk

Among the most vulnerable regions are: Australia; the northwestern United States; Canada; the Amazon Rainforest. In these areas, the combination of high temperatures and a lack of precipitation can create ideal conditions for large-scale fires.

• "Unprecedented climate extremes”

Friederike Otto, a climate scientist and researcher at Imperial College London, warns that the combination of human-induced global warming and a strong El Niño could lead to "unprecedented climate extremes.” The researchers' message is clear: 2026 has the potential to be one of the most challenging years for managing wildfires, and authorities around the world will need to be prepared for a season that could break all recent records.