Study: Global warming has accelerated since 2015

The pace of global warming has accelerated "statistically significantly” over the past decade, according to a study published by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The analysis, published in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggests that the planet is warming at a faster rate today than in recent decades, according to AFP. According to the study, the average global temperature has increased by about 0.35 degrees Celsius per decade in the past ten years, compared to just under 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade between 1970 and 2015. The lead author of the research, climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf, says that this represents the highest rate of warming observed since the beginning of modern meteorological measurements in 1880. For the analysis, the researchers used climate data sets from: NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Berkeley Earth.

American statistician Grant Foster, co-author of the study, explained that the analysis eliminated the main natural influences that can distort the long-term trend, such as the El Niño phenomenon, volcanic eruptions or variations in solar activity.

The goal was to reduce the "noise” in the data to highlight the signal of climate warming more clearly.

• 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold could be exceeded before 2030

If the current rate of temperature increase continues, researchers warn that the goal set by the Paris Agreement - limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels - could be sustainably exceeded before 2030. Recent records seem to confirm this trend. The years 2023, 2024 and 2025 were the warmest in the history of meteorological measurements, and 2024 set an absolute record. Even after eliminating the influence of the El Niño phenomenon and solar cycles, 2023 and 2024 remain the hottest years ever recorded.

• Debates in the scientific community

While the study indicates a clear acceleration of warming, not all specialists agree on the interpretation of the results. Climatologist Zeke Hausfather believes there is a growing consensus that a recent acceleration has been detected, but warns that the statistical methods used to eliminate natural variations are not perfect. Another study published in 2024 in the journal Communications Earth & Environment suggested that the available data do not yet robustly demonstrate a clear acceleration in warming, and that recent records may be consistent with a steady upward trend observed since the 1970s.

• Role of aerosols in temperature evolution

Another factor that researchers are analyzing is the decline in emissions of industrial aerosols, particles that reflect solar radiation and have a temporary cooling effect on the planet. Climatologist Robert Vautard, co-chair of a working group within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pointed out that the reduction of these particles could contribute to accelerating warming. According to the PIK study, the cooling effect of aerosols decreased by about 0.1-0.3 W/m² between 2000 and 2011, but the exact impact on global temperature remains uncertain.

• A wake-up call for climate policy

Overall, the research suggests that global warming could be accelerating faster than previously estimated, even though there are still uncertainties about the precise causes of the acceleration. For the scientific community and policymakers, these results represent a new wake-up call for the need to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the climate change already underway.