Iran versus Israel - the lesson of a conflict in which every loss was called a success

After twelve days of intense confrontations between Iran and Israel, in which each camp clung to its own narrative and sent firm messages to its own public opinion, a ceasefire was announced yesterday by US President Donald Trump. He announced on Truth Social, his own online social platform, that Israel and Iran had agreed on a "Complete and Total Ceasefire", a formulation that abounds more in intention than in guarantees. The agreement was to be implemented in stages over a 24-hour period, that is, by this morning when we should see that the guns are silent between the two Middle Eastern states in conflict. Both Tehran and Tel Aviv have agreed to the ceasefire, even though Iran fired two more rockets at the Israeli capital and a nearby city yesterday morning. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, according to the Jerusalem Post and The Times of Israel, that his country can conclude the ceasefire because it has achieved all the objectives it had when launching Operation Rising Lion on June 13, 2025.

However, the balance of the conflict is not easy to swallow, neither by public opinion nor by regional investors. Israel said that it had hit "well-defined targets" in central Tehran, including the Revolutionary Guards command center and Evin prison - a symbol of Iranian political repression, but also a high-risk building, considering that foreign citizens are among the detainees. Iran was no slouch and retaliated before and immediately after Donald Trump announced the ceasefire. Iranian authorities claimed that the last-minute missiles successfully hit Haifa and Tel Aviv. The fact that these missiles fell in populated areas was treated with familiar rhetoric by both sides: "proportionate action”, "legitimate response”, "advance warning”. In reality, Israel suffered material damage and a general state of alert, while Iran suffered power outages in the capital, an explosion in Ahvaz, damage to energy infrastructure and a largely evacuated urban population. Tehran's ten million inhabitants were not necessarily the target, but they behaved exactly like a population under siege: a significant part of the citizens left the Iranian capital.

Before Donald Trump announced the ceasefire, there was an Iranian attack on the US Al Udeid base in Qatar, an attack that did not cause any casualties, but which brought with it a discreet irritation among the emirate, which declared itself "surprised”. However, in a note of rare diplomatic sincerity, Trump thanked Tehran for its "early announcement”, adding that the retaliation was weak. How weak? Enough not to cause any real damage, but enough to justify an enthusiastic tweet. On the international stage, the statements followed a predictable course. Russia condemned the "unprovoked attacks” on Iran, China questioned the credibility of the United States, and the European Union expressed concern about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which everyone sees as a geopolitical powder keg. NATO reiterated that Iran should not develop nuclear weapons, and Germany, with its well-known sobriety, said that the alternative to an American attack was "not an option.”

• The toll of destruction in Israel after 12 days of conflict

But what is the toll of the 12 days of conflict between the two Middle Eastern powers? We searched for data in the Israeli press, the American press, the Arab press and the official news agencies in Tehran and made a brief assessment of the destruction and losses suffered by each camp during this period of open conflict, an assessment made from both the Israeli and Iranian perspectives.

Regarding the perspective of the Tel Aviv authorities regarding the destruction and losses recorded by Israel, according to information presented by the JerusalemPost, Times of Israel, based on IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) communiques, between June 13 and 24, Iran launched over 520 missiles and drones into Israeli territory, in successive waves. The IDF said that the peak of the launches was reached on June 21, with 150 rockets sent by Tehran, in two waves, towards Israel.

Following the attack on Israel, 28 people were killed by explosions caused by Iranian missiles and drones, but the IDF estimated that the losses could have been much higher, if the Iron Dome shield had given way to the airstrike. In addition to the deaths, Israel also recorded several hundred wounded, as well 2,500 people were left homeless.

Airstrikes on the cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Beersheba, Holon, BeitShe'an led to the destruction of several apartment buildings and other residential buildings, and damage to civilian facilities and public institutions. A significant Iranian attack took place on the Soroka Medical Center in Beersheba, where an upper floor was completely destroyed and 40 people were injured. Damage was also reported to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange building.

In response to the above Israeli information, the AlJazeera daily, citing Iranian sources, reports at least 25 deaths in Israel as a result of the Iranian attacks and approximately 430 injuries. The Iranian news agencies (Tasnim and IRNA) state that missiles and drones fired by Tehran's forces hit "several targets” in Israel, including Haifa and Tel Aviv, with "panic and mass evacuations.” The Iranians also claim to have caused significant civilian and structural damage, using "waves" of ballistic and drone attacks.

• Destruction balance in Iran

Regarding the damage recorded by Iran in the 12 days of open air conflict, the Tel Aviv authorities claim to have hit several "nuclear sites", including the plants at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, where they caused "extremely severe damage", which was complemented by massive destruction caused by American bunker-buster bombs, launched by the US Air Force. The Pentagon stated that it launched "Operation Midnight Hammer" on June 21 targeting the same three nuclear complexes, using bunker-buster bombs sent from B-2 and Tomahawks. The Pentagon confirms "severe damage" at Fordow, but not complete destruction. The joint US-Israeli attack "dismantled the Iranian nuclear program" and generated significant damage to underground infrastructure. According to the NGO Human Rights Activists, the Israeli strikes in the first part of the conflict caused over 500 deaths in Iran, including several hundred civilians, and over 3,500 injuries.

Iranian news agencies (IRNA, Mehr, Tasnim) report "fundamental damage” to nuclear infrastructure, and the US and Israel are accused of violating the NPT treaty. Al Jazeera (quoting Iranian sources and the International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA) reports over 400 deaths in Iran, most of them civilians, as a result of Israeli attacks, and the destruction of several infrastructures in urban areas of Iran. Regarding the bombing of nuclear sites, the IAEA states that the damage to nuclear facilities, namely the huge craters at Fordow, represents a "very significant impact”.

• Civilians, the first victims of the conflict

"Operation Rising Lion" launched by Israel on June 13 aimed to destroy the nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Arak, destroy military bases, IRGC command centers and kill high-ranking Iranian leaders. At least 6 high-ranking Iranian generals - including IRGC chiefs and commanders of the air force and defense - were killed. Another 9 Iranian nuclear researchers were killed in the bombings. Regarding the total number of Iranian victims between June 13 and 24, reports prepared by regional authorities in Iran indicate over 800 deaths and over 3,000 injuries, including the 585 confirmed by NGOs. In contrast, according to information presented by the AlJazeera news group, 450 civilians died during the conflict in Iran and over 2,500 were injured. In Israel, however, 28 people were killed and 800 civilians were injured, according to Iranian and international reports, cited by Tehran news agencies and the Al Jazeera website.

The American television channel Fox News reported that in a recent Iranian attack, about 10 missiles penetrated the Iron Dome defenses, hitting populated areas, where they destroyed several buildings.

In other words, despite the deep strikes, the bombing of nuclear infrastructure and the millions of civilians directly or indirectly affected, everything seems to end with an informal truce, transmitted via social networks and confirmed by the lack of explosions, not by signatures. It is a ceasefire that does not imply peace, but only a pause between episodes. Instead of a real reconciliation, we are witnessing a temporary reconfiguration of positions, with a dose of regional pragmatism and, inevitably, the same old mutual suspicion.

So, after twelve days of fire, dust and propaganda, the Middle East returns to a slightly modified form of the status quo. All sides claim to have won, but all have lost something, and the silence after the conflict is not a sign of calm, but of exhaustion.