Karol Nawrocki, Poland's new president; narrow victory with major impact on the country's future

The second round of the presidential election in Poland ended with a major surprise. Nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki obtained 50.89% of the vote, narrowly beating liberal Rafa³ Trzaskowski, who was credited with 49.11%, informs Politico. The official result published by the Electoral Commission contradicts exit polls broadcast immediately after the end of the election, which indicated Trzaskowski in the lead, with 50.3%, compared to 49.7% for Nawrocki. The extremely small difference fueled tensions and uncertainty, and both candidates initially declared themselves confident of victory.

Trzaskowski interpreted the exit poll as a success: "The expression "with a mustache' will now enter the Polish language,” he told his enthusiastic supporters. Nawrocki, on the other hand, retorted firmly: "We will win tonight. We will win and we will save Poland!”

• A new conflict between the presidency and the pro-European government

Nawrocki's victory represents a major setback for the government led by Donald Tusk, which had hoped for close cooperation with a centrist president. Trzaskowski would have allowed many legislative initiatives blocked by the current president Andrzej Duda, who is close to PiS (Law and Justice). "Nawrocki's presidency means a high-level conflict between the president and Tusk. It will be difficult for the government to implement key reforms, because the president can block most of them,” commented analyst Joanna Sawicka of Polityka Insight. Among the issues potentially affected are the liberalization of abortion and reform of the judicial system - sensitive topics in Polish society, Reuters points out. Unlike other Eurosceptics in Central Europe, such as Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico or Viktor Orban of Hungary, Nawrocki supports providing military aid to Ukraine.

• Domestic and foreign support

Karol Nawrocki, 42, is supported by the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party at home and by the group around US President Donald Trump, abroad. His campaign has been marked by populist rhetoric and a tough speech against migration, especially of Ukrainian refugees. Although he says he supports Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, Nawrocki opposed its accession to NATO and criticized Kiev's lack of gratitude towards Poland. In a viral video, Nawrocki declared: "Social benefits are primarily for Poles. In hospitals and at the doctor's, Poles must have priority.” To secure victory in the second round, Nawrocki signed a deal with the leader of the Polish far-right, Slawomir Mentzen, thereby attracting crucial votes. He was also supported in the campaign by the leader of the AUR, George Simion, a sign that his conservative agenda has echoes beyond Poland's borders. He has advocated for German reparations for World War II and for border controls with Germany to limit migration. Nawrocki's victory is being watched closely not only in Poland but also in European capitals, in Brussels, Kiev and Washington. Relations between Poland and the EU could become strained again, and Poland's influence on regional policies - including support for Ukraine - remains a point of uncertainty.

• A campaign full of controversy and scandal

Nawrocki was the target of several accusations during the campaign: from dubious transactions with a pensioner to involvement in bringing prostitutes to a hotel in Sopot, while working as a security guard. He also admitted to participating in organized fights in his youth as a football hooligan. Another controversial episode involved Nawrocki under the pseudonym "Tadeusz Batyr”. In 2018, he published a book about a famous communist-era gangster and appeared on public television in a mask, claiming that "Batyr” was inspired by Karol Nawrocki's research. It later turned out that the two were one and the same person.

• Historian specializing in organized crime, with a sporting background

Karol Nawrocki was born in the port city of Gdañsk. He practiced boxing and football before becoming a historian. He holds a PhD and an MBA and was the director of the Museum of the Second World War in Gdañsk. Since 2021, he has been the director of the National Institute of Remembrance (IPN), focusing on research into communist crimes and the history of sports. He is married and has two children. In his free time, he continues to box.

• Poland Divided

The elections once again reflected the deep divide in Polish society: between big cities and rural areas, between pro-European liberalism and conservative nationalism, between supporters of the EU and supporters of a strong sovereignty. The turnout was record-breaking: 71.31% in the second round, compared to 67.31% in the first round, a sign of massive mobilization from both camps, Reuters reports. Incumbent President Andrzej Duda congratulated Poles for their participation: "Thank you! For fulfilling your civic duty. Congratulations to the winner! Stay strong, Poles!", he posted on social media.

Karol Nawrocki won the election, but the most difficult political battles are just beginning. Will he succeed in imposing his conservative agenda in a polarized country with a liberal government? Or will he intensify the political conflict and isolate Poland on the European stage? It remains to be seen. What is certain is that Poland's future will be shaped by an unpredictable president with a tumultuous past and a staunch nationalist agenda.