S&P 500 Returns in the First 100 Days of Modern Presidents

Stock markets often react quickly, and sometimes dramatically, to the start of new U.S. presidential terms, as investors anticipate how leadership and policy changes will affect the economy, corporate growth, and regulatory environments.

A visualcapitalist.com analysis shows how the S&P 500 stock index has performed in the first 100 days of U.S. presidents since World War II. Data comes from TradingView and Bloomberg, via Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), and was updated on April 30, 2025. Data for President Gerald Ford (1974-1977) was not available at the source.

According to the cited source, the highest return of the S&P 500 was recorded in the first hundred days of Joe Biden's term (starting in 2021), respectively 10.9%. Next are John F. Kennedy (1961, 9.3%), H.W. Bush (1989, 7.9%), Donald Trump (first term, 2017, 5.3%), Barack Obama (2009, 2.8%); Lyndon B. Johnson (1965, 2.7%), Bill Clinton (1993, 0.9%), Richard Nixon (1969, 0.7%). Negative returns are found in the terms of Ronald Regan (1981, -1%), Harry S. Truman (1949, -4.7%), Dwight David Eisenhower (1953, -5.1%), Jimmy Carter (1977, -5.2%), G.W. Bush (2001, -6.7%), Trump (2nd term, 2025, -7.1%).

• Market crashes in early days of Trump's 2025 term

In the first 100 days of Donald Trump's inauguration, the US stock market had its worst performance since the start of any presidential term in modern history, with the S&P 500 index falling 7.1%. This was the steepest decline in the first 100 days of any presidency since Richard Nixon's second term. His terms ran from 1969 to 1974 (the second was not completed).

In the four trading sessions leading up to April 8, the S&P 500 suffered its biggest four-day loss since the index was created, following Trump's announcement of global tariffs, marking "Liberation Day," according to the source. Reaching its lowest point on April 8, the S&P 500 was down 16.9% from its level at Trump's inauguration.

The S&P 500 has been on a roller coaster ride since Trump's inauguration, going from an all-time high to a bear market in just a month and a half as markets reacted sharply to the tariff announcements and subsequent cuts. This market volatility has coincided with a notable slowdown in the U.S. economy. According to official estimates, US GDP fell by 0.3% in the first three months of 2025, the first contraction since early 2022.

• Gallup: Public support for Trump relatively low

Donald Trump began his second term as president of the United States of America (USA) with relatively low public support, and there are few signs of an increase in post-election support. A Gallup poll conducted in April shows the approval ratings enjoyed by US presidents in recent history, in their first hundred days in office. According to the cited source, the average approval rating in the first quarter for presidents elected between 1952 and 2020 is 60%, with John F. Kennedy (term 1961 - 1963) ranking first with 81%. Next are Dwight David Eisenhower (term 1953 - 1961; approval rating 74%), Ronald Reagan (1981 - 1989; 67%), Jimmy Carter (1977 - 1981; 64%), Barack Obama (2009 - 2017; 63%), Richard Nixon (1969 -1974; 62%), G.W. Bush (2001 - 2009; 61%), G.H.W. Bush (1989 - 1993; 58%), Joe Biden (2021 - 2025; 57%), Bill Clinton (1993 - 2001; 55%), Trump, second term (2025; 44%), Trump, first term (2017 - 2021; 40%). Ratings for Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969) and Gerald Ford (1974-1977) were not available.

Thus, Trump began his second term with a 47% approval rating in January 2025, which had fallen to 44% by April - marking one of the worst starts to a presidential term in modern history. The rating is only slightly higher than the 40% he had in the first 100 days of his previous term - the lowest ever recorded by a newly elected American president in modern history.

According to Gallup, most Americans have either "very little" (11%) or "almost no" (44%) confidence that Donald Trump will do the right thing for the US economy.