126 billion euros, losses caused by heat, drought and floods in the summer season

The recently concluded summer season accounted for an estimated 126 billion euros in economic losses in the budgets of the European Union member states, according to a study carried out by a team formed by Sehrisch Usman, an economist at the University of Mannheim, and two researchers from the European Central Bank, a study cited by the German publication Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in an article published yesterday.

The experts analyzed, based on meteorological and economic data, the effects of heat waves, droughts and floods produced between June and August, as well as the medium-term consequences until 2029. The figure advanced includes both direct damage - 43 billion euros - and indirect costs, such as reduced productivity, loss of labor and the cessation of economic activities in the affected areas, which increase the bill in the following years.

According to the cited source, the greatest losses were recorded in southern Europe, where the impact amounted to up to 35 billion euros in the three months analyzed, without taking into account the devastating fires that ravaged the area. Germany, by comparison, suffered smaller losses, of around 2.5 billion euros. The study took into account 1,160 European regions and over 32,000 sets of climatological and macroeconomic data collected between 1995 and 2022. The researchers defined heat waves as periods of several consecutive days with temperatures at least two degrees Celsius above the multi-year average, and for drought they used extreme deviations from normal precipitation values. The data show that in the summer of 2025 there were 53 floods, 31 regions affected by heat waves, 130 areas marked by severe droughts and 65 regions hit simultaneously by extreme heat and lack of precipitation. The 31 regions affected by heat waves have recorded direct damages of euro6.8 billion and total costs of over euro30 billion by 2029, with France, Spain, Italy and Bulgaria among the worst affected. Drought in the southern EU has caused immediate losses of almost euro29 billion, and in the medium term losses could reach euro75 billion. Floods caused by extreme rainfall have caused direct damages of euro6.5 billion across Europe, and their total costs, estimated by 2029, exceed euro20 billion.

The study cited highlights that Spain, France and Italy suffered the largest losses in absolute terms, while, in terms of the size of the economy, Greece, Cyprus, Malta and Bulgaria were the most affected, each losing over 1% of gross value added registered in 2024. "These are significant losses for many European economies,” said Sehrisch Usman, adding that the estimates are "clearly conservative” and that, in reality, the impact could be much higher. The researchers point out that, in the absence of complete data, the combined effects of drought and heatwave were only partially accounted for, and the damage caused by wildfires in southern Europe was not included at all in the analysis.

Thus, the balance of 126 billion euros, although impressive, does not reflect the full extent of the economic disaster caused by the extreme phenomena of the summer of 2025. The real costs will be felt for years and will weigh heavily on national economies, affecting infrastructure, agriculture, productivity and social stability.