Von der Leyen, the CDU's secret playbook for the German presidency in 2027?

In political Germany, discussions about who will succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier as federal president in 2027 have taken a surprising turn with the emergence of Ursula von der Leyen among the possible replacements, according to the German daily Der Spiegel and the daily Il Giornale D'Italia. Although von der Leyen's mandate as president of the European Commission was recently renewed, after the rejection of the motion of censure initiated by MEP Gheorghe Piperea (AUR/ECR), sources close to the CDU suggest that conservative leaders, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, are considering the scenario in which the current head of Brussels would leave the position early to become the first female federal president in German history.

The shortlist of potential candidates includes well-known figures such as Julia Klockner - President of the Bundestag (Federal Parliament), Karin Prien - Minister of Family Affairs in the Merz Cabinet or Ilse Aigner - President of the Bavarian Parliament, but none of them manages to arouse real enthusiasm among the party or secure the necessary consensus for nomination as a candidate for the position of federal president.

The sources cited claim that, unlike the names circulated above, Ursula von der Leyen would bring undeniable image capital, based on a career marked by historic awards: the first female Minister of Defense, the first woman at the helm of the European Commission and, possibly, the first female federal president of Germany. For her, the position of President of Germany would represent the crowning of a remarkable political career, without being interpreted as a retreat, but rather as a symbolic ascension to the highest dignity of the German state.

For the CDU, such a move would be strategic: the party would take credit for having brought not only the first female chancellor, but also the first female federal president, thus consolidating its image as a political force open to modernity and gender balance. In addition, Merz would avoid a scenario he considers the most dangerous: that the Greens come up with a surprise and really tough candidacy, like Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor. However, there are also shadows hanging over von der Leyen. The Italian and German press do not forget the criticism related to her silence on the war in Gaza, the difficulties of managing the pandemic and the scandal of contracts with Pfizer, elements that could weaken her political aura. There are also questions about the advisability of such a premature departure from the head of the European Commission: would Germany lose the most influential position it holds in Brussels for a largely symbolic position? That is why the German daily Bild notes that, at least officially, Ursula von der Leyen is focused on the European mandate, already tested by tensions in the European Parliament and the motion of censure that the President of the European Commission recently faced.

The situation is complicated, especially since the regional elections in Germany that will be held by the beginning of 2027 will change the composition of the Federal Assembly, responsible for the presidential vote. Negotiations between parties usually take place behind closed doors, and surprises are not lacking, as German political history has repeatedly demonstrated. In this context, Ursula von der Leyen's candidacy is more of a political projection than a certainty, but the fact that her name has been seriously added to the shortlist shows both the lack of solid alternatives and the CDU's desire to make a spectacular move.

Thus, while some see her as the natural choice, with authority and dignity for the role of Bundespräsident (federal president), others warn that it would be a choice with major risks, both for Germany and for the European Union. The question now hanging over Berlin is not whether Ursula von der Leyen could become federal president, but whether Germany and Europe can afford such a transfer of power in 2027.