EU close to 2030 climate target, but future uncertain

The European Union is on track to meet its target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, the European Commission announced today, following a recent assessment of national energy and climate plans. The estimated reduction is 54% compared to 1990 levels, meaning the EU is very close to its medium-term climate target. "We now need to build on this momentum," said Wopke Hoekstra, European Commissioner for Climate Action. "This is a decisive moment: every sector, in every Member State, needs to play its part."

• Progress but also challenges

The EU has already achieved a 37% reduction in emissions, with an impressive 8% drop in 2023 alone. In addition, most member states are on track to reach the target of 42.5% of total consumption from renewable energy by 2030. However, the Commission draws attention to disparities between member states and difficulties in protecting forests, which are essential for absorbing carbon. "Our natural carbon reservoirs are weakened," warns centrist MEP Pascal Canfin, citing forest degradation as a major risk. France, while supporting the use of "decarbonized" nuclear energy, is criticized for delays in adopting renewable energy plans. In addition, Belgium, Estonia and Poland have not submitted their revised plans, which Brussels has insisted on.

• Doubts and delays for 2040

After progress for 2030, the 2040 target looks more difficult. The European Commission has recommended a 90% reduction in CO₂ emissions by 2040, but has not formalised the proposal to member states. Many governments are hesitant, citing concerns about industry competitiveness. In this context, Brussels could introduce flexibilities, such as the use of carbon certificates on international markets, to make it easier to reach the target. A formal proposal is expected by the end of the summer, in view of the UN COP30 conference in Brazil in November.

• A pro-business turn and an ecology under pressure

The EU seems to have changed direction recently, adopting a more business-friendly approach, under pressure from competition with China and the return of Donald Trump to the White House. Thus, the adoption of the law on combating deforestation, measures on the environmental responsibility of multinationals were postponed.

This change of tone has sparked criticism from environmental NGOs, which denounce a "systematic dissolution" of the ambitious European Green Pact ("Green Deal"). In addition, the rise of the far right in several member states has complicated the political consensus on climate issues. Spanish Commissioner Teresa Ribera, responsible for the energy transition, warned: "We must create the necessary conditions to reduce emissions by 90% by 2040. Europe has shown that clear, science-based targets work."

The EU aims to become climate neutral by 2050. The 2030 and 2040 targets are essential steps in this direction, but maintaining political and economic commitment is becoming increasingly difficult in a volatile geopolitical climate.