Analysis: China's Objectives and Global Fragmentation - Strategic Advantage Through Coincidence

The global fragmentation accelerated by U.S. policies coincides, paradoxically, with the strategic objectives promoted by China over the last decade. This convergence does not result from direct coordination but from the overlap between the American retreat from multilateralism and Beijing's vision of a multipolar world.

Chaos as Strategic Opportunity

In the official documents and speeches of the Chinese leadership, the concept of a "Great Change Unseen in a Century” appears constantly, describing the inevitable transition from a global order dominated by a single center to a multipolar world. From this perspective, the U.S. withdrawal from international agreements and institutions is not interpreted as an anomaly but as a predictable historical stage.

(Sources: speeches by President Xi Jinping at the CCP Congress; foreign policy documents of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China)

Analyses by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) show that Beijing is capitalizing on the increasingly widespread perception of the United States as an unpredictable partner-affected by tariffs, institutional withdrawals, and abrupt policy shifts. In this context, China positions itself rhetorically as a supporter of global stability and continuity, without frontally challenging the existing order, but emphasizing its erosion from within.

(Source: CSIS - analyses on China's positioning in a multipolar world, 2023-2025)

Sanctions and the Acceleration of Financial Fragmentation

The use of the international financial system as a tool of geopolitical coercion has become a major catalyst for fragmentation. The freezing of Russian foreign reserves in 2022 served as an alarm signal for many states, demonstrating that access to global financial infrastructure can be unilaterally restricted.

(Sources: official G7 communications; BIS and IMF assessments on geopolitical risks to the financial system)

The International Monetary Fund, in its report on geofinancial fragmentation, warns that the frequent invocation of national security in the financial domain favors the emergence of competing monetary blocs. This evolution overlaps with China's strategy of promoting alternative payment infrastructures and reducing dependence on the dollar in regional trade, including through the expansion of its own settlement systems.

(Source: International Monetary Fund - "Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of the International Monetary System”)

China's Structural Dilemma

Although the current fragmentation benefits China positionally, Beijing does not seek a total rupture of the global economy. Analyses by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) highlight that China's strategy can be defined as "selective multipolarity”: increased technological and financial autonomy combined with maintaining access to developed markets.

(Source: European Council on Foreign Relations - reports on China's global strategy)

The Chinese economy remains dependent on demand from G7 states, and a too-rapid fragmentation or a full decoupling process would generate major internal risks. For this reason, Beijing avoids deliberately accelerating global disorder and prefers a controlled transition that allows continuity in trade and investment.

(Sources: ECFR; OECD; IMF analyses on China's exposure to external demand)

Institutional Confirmation of Fragmentation

International institutions confirm this evolution. The Bank for International Settlements and the World Trade Organization observe the emergence of increasingly clearly defined economic and trade blocs. The WTO's "World Trade Report” shows that global trade is being reorganized increasingly based on political and security criteria-through friend-shoring mechanisms-rather than pure economic efficiency.

(Sources: WTO - World Trade Report 2023 and 2024; BIS - Annual Economic Report)

This trend confirms the dissolution of an order based on a single center of power and the emergence of a polycentric structure characterized by different rules, parallel networks, and higher coordination costs.

(Sources: BIS; WTO; OECD analyses of global supply chain fragmentation)

Convergence in Fact, Not Coordination

The fragmentation observed today is not orchestrated by China and does not follow a single blueprint. The overall direction, however, aligns with the model promoted by Beijing for a simple reason: U.S. policies accelerate precisely the processes considered inevitable by Chinese strategy.

(Sources: CSIS; ECFR; Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs strategy reports)

Through institutional withdrawals, tariffs, sanctions, and the politicization of financial infrastructure, Washington validates the thesis of dangerous dependencies and pushes third-party actors to seek redundancy and operational autonomy. In this context, reality functions as the main persuasion mechanism, not Chinese rhetoric.

(Sources: IMF; BIS; Brookings Institution analyses)

Critical Difference: Alternative Order vs. Disorder

China has promoted a world less centered on the U.S., but one that remains governable: controlled fragmentation, predictable networks, and sufficient stability for trade and investment. The American withdrawal, however, produces an abrupt fragmentation with institutional ruptures and governance grey zones, increasing costs and risks for all actors.

(Sources: ECFR; BIS; World Economic Forum - reports on geopolitical risks)

The result benefits China relatively, but it is not Beijing's ideal scenario. The resulting world is more volatile, more expensive, and harder to manage-even for major powers.

(Sources: IMF; OECD; Financial Stability Board analyses)

Why China Gains Positionally

Even in this imperfect context, China enters the new phase with structural advantages: experience in bilateral and regional agreements, control over critical industrial nodes, the capacity to operate in fragmented systems, and greater political tolerance for transition costs.

(Sources: ECFR; CSIS; OECD reports on industrial supply chains)

In a world building bypass routes around the U.S., China does not automatically become the system's hegemon, but it strengthens itself as an alternative pivot. The current fragmentation is not a Chinese project, but it confirms Chinese strategy. The United States is not building a new order; it is accelerating the disintegration of the old one. China does not control the process, but it is the most prepared actor for the emerging world.

(Sources: CSIS; ECFR; IMF; BIS)