Football, petrodollars and geopolitics: how Middle Eastern tensions can influence the European market

World football has become, in the last two decades, a faithful mirror of the great geopolitical and economic transformations. From the massive entry of Gulf capital into European clubs after the 2008 financial crisis, to the spectacular rise of Middle Eastern leagues, the sport has been constantly influenced by the political and economic strategies of oil-rich states. In the context of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East - amplified by the confrontations between the USA, Israel and Iran - there are more and more signals that football in the Gulf area could become less attractive for players and investors. Paradoxically, this situation could represent an opportunity for European clubs, which in recent years have lost ground to financial offers that are impossible to match.

• Gulf Capital Saved European Clubs After the Financial Crisis

After the global financial crisis of 2008, many European clubs faced massive debts and difficulties in financing their current activities. In that context, capital from oil-rich Middle Eastern states became a lifeline for a significant part of European football. The process started gradually, but quickly gained momentum. Gulf investors entered the market in three main ways: buying clubs, major sponsorships and investments in infrastructure. A symbolic moment was the purchase of Manchester City in 2008 by Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Under the new ownership, the club became one of the most powerful teams in Europe, with investments in transfers and infrastructure exceeding billions of euros in the following years. A similar model was applied in France, where the sovereign wealth fund Qatar Sports Investments bought the Paris Saint-Germain club in 2011, transforming it into one of the richest clubs in the world. In parallel, sponsorships became an important strategy for penetrating the European market. Gulf companies came to sponsor top-tier clubs such as FC Barcelona or Arsenal FC, and the airline Emirates became one of the most visible sponsors in world football. For the states in the region, these investments had not only an economic dimension. They also represented an instrument of global influence, with sport being used to strengthen the international image.

• Development of Gulf leagues

In recent years, the strategy of the Gulf states has changed. Instead of investing exclusively in European clubs, they have begun to develop their own championships, transforming them into competitions capable of attracting top players. The most spectacular example is the Saudi Pro League. The Saudi league has quickly become one of the most active transfer markets in the world. According to data published by FIFA and the analysis platform Transfermarkt, clubs in Saudi Arabia spent approximately $957 million on transfers in 2023, surpassed only by the Premier League. The investments are largely supported by the sovereign wealth fund Public Investment Fund, which controls several major clubs in the championship. Among the players attracted by the extremely high salaries were top-notch stars: Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Neymar, Sadio Mane. Through these transfers, Saudi Arabia tried to transform the local league into a global product, capable of competing with the major European championships.

• Change of strategy in 2025

After the spectacular transfer period of 2023-2024, Saudi clubs began to adopt a more balanced strategy. Transfer spending fell in 2024 to around $465 million, but the league remains the most active in the Arab world in terms of investment. For the 2025-2026 season, the structure of the competition was relatively stable: 18 participating clubs, over 500 registered players, around 170 foreign players, average value of a player around 2.2 million euros, according to Transfermarkt data. In parallel, the clubs are trying to bring in coaches with an international reputation. The strategy aims to develop the championship in the long term, including through investments in academies and infrastructure.

• Geopolitical factor: regional tensions and the impact on sports

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, especially the rivalry between Iran and Israel, as well as the US involvement in the security of the region, may have indirect effects on the sports industry. Global football depends on three elements that are susceptible to instability: the flow of international investment, the mobility of players and coaches, and the commercial attractiveness for sponsors. If military tensions in the region increase, there is a risk that some sports projects in the Gulf will be disrupted. be postponed or reduced, and European players become more reluctant to transfer to the region.

• An opportunity for European clubs

For European football, this development could represent an opportunity. In recent years, clubs in the major championships have lost numerous important players to financial offers from Saudi Arabia. Salaries offered in the Gulf were often two to three times higher than those in Europe. If the attractiveness of the Gulf championships temporarily decreases, the transfer market could rebalance. European clubs could have more negotiating power and the pressure on salaries could decrease. However, analysts believe that the influence of Gulf capital in world sport will remain strong. Sovereign wealth funds in the region manage assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and sport continues to be a strategic tool for global projection.

Over the past two decades, world football has been deeply influenced by capital originating from the Middle East. Massive investments have changed the financial balance of the sport and created emerging competitions such as the Saudi league. However, geopolitical tensions in the region could temporarily slow this expansion and give European clubs some respite in a transfer market that has become extremely competitive.

In the long term, the relationship between football and geopolitics will remain close. Petrodollars will not disappear from world sport, but the direction in which they are invested may change.