Higher preference for euro-denominated bonds in the February Fidelis offering

Investors are showing a stronger preference for the euro-denominated Fidelis government bonds in the current offering launched by the Ministry of Finance, which, as of yesterday at 1:00 p.m., had accumulated total subscriptions of euro59.9 million, according to our calculations based on data extracted from a brokerage firm's platform.

The leu-denominated bonds, for which investors had placed purchase orders worth 113.6 million lei (euro22.3 million), comprise four tranches. The two-year maturity tranche, with an annual interest rate of 6.15%, had attracted subscriptions of 53.7 million lei, while the four-year maturity tranche, with an annual interest rate of 6.75%, recorded purchase orders of 76.6 million lei. The six-year maturity tranche, offering an annual interest rate of 7.25%, had accumulated subscriptions of 31.1 million lei.

For the blood donors' tranche, with a two-year maturity and an annual interest rate of 7.15%, the value of purchase orders stood at 21.1 million lei. This tranche is open to individuals who can provide proof of having donated blood during the period from September 1, 2025 to February 13, 2026.

The euro-denominated bonds consist of three tranches. The three-year maturity tranche, with an annual interest rate of 3.6%, had attracted subscriptions of euro6.8 million, while the five-year maturity tranche, offering an annual interest rate of 4.5%, recorded purchase orders of euro4.9 million. The ten-year maturity tranche, with an annual interest rate of 6%, had accumulated subscriptions of euro25.9 million-the highest amount among all tranches, regardless of currency.

Overall, around 60% of total subscriptions were made in euro as of yesterday at 1:00 p.m.

The offering is taking place in a period marked by high inflation, driven mainly by last year's removal of electricity price caps, the increase in VAT, and higher excise duties. However, estimates from the National Bank of Romania (NBR) point to a sharp decline in inflation in the second half of 2026, mainly due to the disappearance of the base effect. In December 2025, Romania's annual inflation rate-calculated on the basis of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-stood at 9.7%, down from 9.8% in November, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (NIS). The NBR estimates an annual inflation rate of 3.7% at the end of this year, which is expected to fall to 2.9% in the third quarter of next year.

For the euro area, according to the latest estimates, the European Central Bank anticipates inflation of 1.9% this year, declining to 1.8% in 2027, before rising to 2% in 2028.

As part of the Fidelis subscription process, intermediaries do not charge commissions. Income earned, both from interest and from capital gains, is tax-exempt, and through listing on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, scheduled for February 19, investors have the option to sell the bonds before maturity and receive the interest accrued for the holding period.

Through the first Fidelis government bond offering of this year, the Ministry of Finance raised 1.9 billion lei from investors, while last year the population lent the state 21 billion lei through this program, equivalent to 8% of Romania's financing needs in 2025.