Real estate market outlook in 2026: office sector returns in strength, residential remains under pressure

The Romanian real estate market enters a new phase in 2026, after several years of rapid growth and successive adjustments, a phase defined more by slowdown, recalibration and strategic repositioning than by accelerated relaunch, Colliers experts said yesterday at the press conference where they presented the report "Top 10 predictions for the Romanian real estate market in 2026".

According to them, 2026 is not a year of rapid recovery, but a year in which prudent decisions, careful selection of investments and the ability to adapt will matter more than the speed or volume of developments, in a context marked by fiscal pressures, geopolitical uncertainty and an economy that is going through a complex adjustment process. Colliers experts emphasize that the differences between well-calibrated and reactive strategies will become increasingly visible, and the market will function as a severe filter between solid, well-positioned projects and those vulnerable to changes in context. Even if the economy is put to the test, opportunities do not disappear, but move to areas and segments that benefit from infrastructure, structural demand or a clear supply deficit, which is why 2026 should be seen more as a year of stabilization and preparation for the next growth cycle, not as a year of rapid relaunch, with positive effects to appear gradually.

• Factors influencing the development of the real estate market

In this logic, infrastructure becomes one of the main pillars of the development of the real estate market in our country, especially since 2026 could be a very good year for transport infrastructure, with almost 350 kilometers of highways and expressways that could be put into use, if the current pace is maintained and the promises are fulfilled, investments supported mainly by European funds and dependent on political stability and the capacity of the authorities to implement reforms. Their impact goes beyond the direct economic effect, accelerating the reconfiguration of the investment map, offering more visibility to secondary and medium-sized cities, reducing pressure on Bucharest and opening access to new areas of real estate development that until recently were not considered viable, even if the risks of administrative delays or changes in political priorities remain present.

In parallel, the macroeconomic context will also decisively influence the dynamics of the real estate market, according to Colliers experts who estimate that our country's economy could grow by just over 1% in 2026, similar to the pace in 2025, but warn that the risks remain high and that a weaker result is very possible, the year being marked by the need for significant fiscal adjustments, a complicated internal decision-making process and an unstable external context.

The report prepared by them also reviews favorable factors, including European funds and a possible relaxation of monetary policy starting in the second quarter, but their impact will be limited and will be seen gradually, which means that the real estate market will not benefit from a sudden boost, but rather from a stabilization of sentiment.

In this context, inflation is expected to resume its decline in 2026, and the National Bank of Romania could consider a reduction in the key interest rate by approximately one percentage point, with the first interest rate cut coming at the earliest in the second quarter, but Colliers experts emphasize that this monetary easing will function more as a stabilizing factor than as a trigger for a rapid recovery in demand, including in real estate.

They also show that the budget deficit remains one of the greatest vulnerabilities, with direct effects on investor confidence, and after an estimated level of approximately 7.7% of GDP in 2025, bringing the deficit to approximately 6% in 2026 will be difficult, especially in a fragmented political context and with high social pressures, fiscal adjustments being inevitable and decisive for investor perception and for the state's financing costs, given that the clarity, coherence and predictability of fiscal policies are becoming key factors for economic stability and medium-term investments.

• Office sector on the rise

The report presented yesterday by Colliers experts mentions that, at the segment level, the office market will enter a favorable period for owners in 2026, amid a lack of new spaces and high development costs, after a 2025 without deliveries in Bucharest, a situation that Colliers describes as a first in at least 25-30 years. Even though the stock of new offices was zero last year, 150,000 square meters were leased in the first three quarters, and in the fourth quarter another 100,000 square meters were leased. For 2026, Colliers specialists estimate that the stock of new offices will be 45,000 square meters, and in 2027 90,000 square meters, insufficient supply given that the annual demand is between 90,000 and 110,000 square meters.

However, although new projects are starting to reappear, the pace is slow and insufficient to cover the shortage of quality modern buildings, which accentuates the pressure on rents and the differences between premium and older buildings, Colliers representatives show, who also claim that companies are becoming increasingly selective, focusing on energy-efficient buildings, well-located and adapted to the current way of working, while interest is focused on well-positioned projects, even in a context of relatively modest domestic rental demand.

• One million square meters leased in the industrial and logistics sector last year

The cited document also specifies that the industrial and logistics sector remains solid in 2026, supported by the expansion of infrastructure and a more diverse demand.

Silviu Pop, Colliers Research Director, said: "2025 was a record year for the industrial space sector, with one million square meters leased (public transactions only) and, even if the total volume of leases could decrease slightly compared to last year, interest will balance between production and logistics, amid the need to secure production chains and geopolitical changes, with a growing interest in strategic industries, including defense, as well as a substantial increase in interest from Asian investors, especially from China. High construction and financing costs may slow down deliveries of new spaces, maintaining pressure on rents and favoring projects that are well positioned and adapted to medium-term demand.”

Another noteworthy fact is that retail remains stable in 2026, even if pressures on consumption remain visible due to inflation, higher taxes and a less dynamic labor market, with the mention that our country remains below the regional average in terms of modern retail per capita, which supports medium-term growth prospects, and the structural deficit of modern spaces offers this segment one of the best visibility. We note that last year 190,000 square meters of built space were received in the retail area and there was a tendency for real estate developers to focus on secondary and medium-sized cities, where retail park projects are attractive due to lower costs and flexibility. According to plans, in 2026, around 240,000 square meters of new commercial space would be inaugurated, the highest level since 2011, retail projects regarding areas between 5,000 square meters and 20,000 square meters.

On the investment market, Colliers estimates a gradual recovery in 2026, as yields begin to move favorably in Western Europe and risk appetite returns, after a 2025 dominated by caution and transaction postponement, with top assets potentially benefiting from a slight decrease in yields if the expected adjustments are confirmed, with positive signals already being observed at the end of 2025, even if investors will remain selective, and the differences between quality and secondary assets will increase. The estimates are optimistic even though last year investments only rose to 525 million euros, compared to 750 million euros in 2024, with Colliers experts expecting an investment value of 800 million euros by the end of 2026.

• Apartment prices are increasing due to increased construction costs

In parallel, the land market is expected to have a better year, amid the gradual return of interest in new developments, especially for residential, industrial and retail projects, an important signal being the return of new demand in the second half of last year, including investors who actively initiate acquisition processes, not just finalize deferred transactions, in a context in which flexible solutions, such as joint-venture partnerships, are increasingly preferred. We note that, according to the cited report, land transactions are influenced by the current uncertain context favorable to speculative buyers, by the high competition in peripheral areas and by the desire of investors to make installment payments or to create joint ventures in order to purchase these properties.

The residential market remains under pressure in 2026, due to an insufficient number of new homes, with direct effects on prices and accessibility, with demand continuing to far exceed supply in major cities, amid a costs of labor market are still relatively decent, while supplies are constrained by high construction costs, more difficult access to financing and administrative bottlenecks, and in early 2026, upward pressure on prices is stronger than downward pressure.

Laurenţiu Lazar, managing partner at Colliers International Romania, stated: "In the first part of the year, we expect fewer home sales, because we have a decrease in real wages and high interest rates. Only in the second half of the year, if the NBR decides to reduce the reference interest rate and bank interest rates decrease, do we expect home sales to increase. Real estate developers who have projects under construction are increasing prices, not decreasing them, because production costs have increased. For example, in the last five years, costs have increased by 50% with labor alone. This does not mean that the final price of real estate will increase by 50%, because there are developers who reduce their profit margin in order to be able to sell the respective homes. But it is certain that prices will not decrease by 20%, 30% or 40% as we have been hearing since the pandemic, but will increase. Prices for construction materials are increasing, demand is high and that is why we do not there are reasons for the final price to decrease”.

In this context, interest in PRS-type projects, housing for rent, is expected to increase, amid high demand for rentals and increasing difficulties in accessing property.

As for financing the sale of apartments, last year 58% of it was secured by bank loans, according to Colliers representatives, a percentage that is still too low compared to Western European countries, where bank financing amounts to over 90% in terms of the acquisition of residential real estate.

Overall, the real estate market at the end of 2025 and in the perspective of 2026, as presented by Colliers experts, is less about rapid expansion and more about discipline, selection and strategy, in a year in which stabilization, preparation for the next growth cycle and clear differentiation between quality projects and vulnerable ones will define the direction of the market.