40% of Romanians chose the radical path; What the state did not do after the cancellation of the 2024 elections

The first round of the presidential elections was won by George Simion, with 3,862,405 votes, according to data published by the Permanent Electoral Authority after centralizing the minutes from all polling stations in the country and in the Diaspora. Almost double the second place, occupied by Nicuşor Dan - 1,979,711 votes, which blew away the presence in the final of the candidate of the PSD-PNL-UDMR governing coalition, Crin Antonescu, by a difference of almost 87,000 votes. If after November 24, 2024, the state authorities were surprised by the 2.2 million votes received by Călin Georgescu, now the AEP, BEC, the Presidency, SIE, SRI and CCR remained "bouche-bee" at the almost 4 million votes received by George Simion. The AUR president managed not only to collect the votes received by him and Călin Georgescu on November 24, but also to add about 300,000 more votes above that total, which demonstrates that in the six months since the annulment of last year's presidential elections, the state authorities have failed to provide the necessary explanations regarding the decision taken by the Constitutional Court, nor to definitively hold those who would have wanted to defraud Romanian democracy criminally liable.

For those who were wondering, throughout this period, where the 2.2 million voters of Călin Georgescu and the 1.2 million voters of George Simion from November 24, 2024 are, because only 20,000-30,000 people at most participated in the protests organized by the two politicians and AUR, the answer is represented by the result of the first round of the presidential elections on May 4, 2025. The voters of the two chose to remain silent and make their presence felt when necessary: at the polls. And their number is not limited to the 3.8 million voters that Simion gathered last Sunday. Not at all. In the second round, George Simion may also receive part of the votes gathered by Victor Ponta - 1.23 million votes - an independent candidate who also had a speech on the sovereignist side. Then let's not forget that almost 50% of citizens with the right to vote did not show up at the polling stations last Sunday. Among the almost 9 million absentees in the first round, it is possible that there are another million nationalists or sovereignists. And of those present at Sunday's poll, let's not forget that some canceled their votes. These are the supporters of Diana Şoşoacă, who drew a box on the ballot, where they wrote the name of the SOS president and put the stamp in that box.

In other words, out of the 18 million people with the right to vote, we have in Romania, between 5.5 and 6.5 million sovereignists, which means approximately 36% of the total number of people with the right to vote, a percentage that is close to the 40% received by George Simion on Sunday.

• The result obtained by George Simion - a product of a failed state?

What caused the radicalization of 40% of Romanian voters? Is it just the lethargy caused by the endless compromises within the governing coalition, the candidates proposed by PSD, PNL and UDMR in both November 2024 and May 2025, the corruption scandals involving prominent members of PSD and PNL, the disastrous state of the state budget? Of course, the reasons above constituted the bulk of the dissatisfaction and radicalization of the respective voters, but in addition to these, there is the perception that the indecision of the state authorities, or rather the "failed state" that former president Klaus Iohannis mentioned, played and still plays an important role.

When the sovereignist candidate shows up at the polls accompanied by Călin Georgescu, indicted by DIICOT in a criminal case in which he is accused of instigating actions to change the constitutional order, of promoting controversial historical figures such as Corneliu Zelea Codreanu or who were convicted as war criminals - the case of Marshal Ion Antonescu, a promotion that is sanctioned by law with a prison sentence, it could be interpreted as the fault of the authorities.

Why? Because Georgescu and Simion were previously involved in scandals related to the Legionary Movement and the praise of Corneliu Zelea Codreanu and Ion Antonescu, and the prosecutors ordered not to initiate criminal prosecution. So Simion and Georgescu were able to run unhindered for any position they wanted. Until last year's elections, when, suddenly, the authorities decided that Georgescu should be removed from the electoral race, a decision maintained for May 2025. But Simion remained. Although he has a ban on entering Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova, although his violent actions over the years have been evident - see the case of the assault in Parliament of the former Minister of Energy, Virgil Popescu, see the assault on the president of SOS - Diana Iovanovici Şoşoacă, see the case of the harassment of the former president of the Chamber of Deputies, Alfred Simonis, and more recently the statement regarding the "skinning in the market" of the members of the Central Electoral Bureau who rejected Călin Georgescu's candidacy -, George Simion was not prevented by the state authorities from running for the position of president of the country.

What can be deduced from the above? That it is possible that, among the ranks of state officials, who tolerate the crimes committed by the president of AUR, there are sympathizers of him or of the sovereignist current and perhaps even people who voted for George Simion in last Sunday's elections. Therefore, we are not at all surprised by the percentage of 40% (i.e. the over 3.8 million votes received from the total of those expressed on May 4, 2025) reached by Simion and it is possible that on May 18, the leader of AUR will also pass this threshold.

• Scenarios for the second round

Under these conditions, Nicuşor Dan's mission seems impossible, even if in the meantime Elena Lasconi has resigned from the leadership of the USR and the respective party can use the financial resources to support the presidential campaign until May 18 for the one who is still the general mayor of the Capital. It is hard to believe that Nicuşor Dan will coagulate all the votes received by Crin Antonescu from PSD, PNL and UDMR and that he will also manage to take some of Victor Ponta's votes. But that does not mean that it is impossible, given that former president Traian Băsescu drew attention to the fact that in the first round of the 2004 presidential elections Adrian Năstase had 40.9% and in the first round of the 2014 presidential elections Victor Ponta had 40.4% and neither of them won the second round, the winners being Traian Băsescu and Klaus Iohannis. It is true, however, that neither Băsescu nor Iohannis were 20% away from first place in the first round, as is the case with Nicuşor Dan. In 2004, Traian Băsescu had to recover only 7% in two weeks, while Klaus Iohannis had to recover 10%. It is true that both Băsescu and Iohannis received over 20% more votes in the second round than they had received in the first round. This scenario could lead Nicuşor Dan to Cotroceni, as president of the country, provided that George Simion does not receive more than 3-5% more votes than the votes received on May 4, 2025. But for this to happen, a higher voter turnout is also needed.

According to an analysis made with the support of Open AI - ChatGPT, based on the results recorded on May 4, 2025, two scenarios emerge.

In the first ideal scenario, if Nicuşor Dan manages to attract 90% of the votes of CrinAntonescu, Ponta and Lasconi on May 18, 2025, he would win the elections by 51-52%.

In the realistic scenario, if Nicuşor Dan attracts 70% of Antonescu's voters, 60% of Ponta's and all of Elena Lasconi's voters, he would accumulate 44-46% of the votes. To win the second round, Nicuşor Dan must attract new voters or massively mobilize the diaspora and voters in urban areas. If the turnout in the diaspora were to increase by more than 300,000 votes and voters in large cities mobilized as in 2014, then the balance could be tipped in favor of Nicuşor Dan. Otherwise, George Simion would become the new president of Romania.

The situation depends very much on what the PSD, PNL and UDMR leaders will decide in these days. It remains to be seen whether the pro-European parties will put the national interest above their own, for the moment, and will continue to ensure political stability in the current geopolitical and strategic context.

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