Billionaires' top fears in 2026: trade and geopolitics

Trade tensions, geopolitics and political uncertainty top the list of risks that worry billionaires in 2026, according to a survey conducted by Swiss bank UBS, cited by visualcapitalist.com. The aforementioned source, which highlights the factors with the greatest negative impact on the global market in the next 12 months, according to billionaires, notes that regional concerns vary, with trade tariffs dominating the ranking of fears in Asia-Pacific, and inflation and conflicts - in the Americas.

• Trade tariffs dominate the concerns

Trade tariffs rank first in the overall ranking, being mentioned by 66% of respondents. Immediately following them are major geopolitical conflicts as a key risk, with 63% of billionaires highlighting fears related to wars, regional instability and rivalry between great powers.

Political uncertainty is the third biggest concern, cited by 59% of respondents. Meanwhile, 44% of billionaires remain concerned about higher inflation, indicating that price stability is not yet a given after years of high inflation in major economies. This is followed by fears of a debt crisis (34%), higher taxes (28%), a global recession (27%), high interest rates (19%), supply chain disruptions (19%), and a financial market crisis (16%). Interestingly, technological disruptions (15%) and climate change (14%) appear lower on the list of fears, suggesting that billionaires may view them as longer-term challenges or more manageable compared to immediate political and economic shocks. Higher energy costs are only a major concern for 8% of respondents, while a global health crisis is a major concern for 6%.

• Regional differences reveal uneven risk exposure

While the global results show common themes, regional differences stand out, the source notes.

In Asia-Pacific, 75% of billionaires cite trade tariffs as their biggest concern, reflecting the region's significant integration into global supply chains and export-led growth models.

In contrast, in the Americas, 70% of respondents are very concerned about higher inflation or major geopolitical conflicts.

• Risk appetite remains strong among billionaires

However, the UBS survey shows that billionaires are entering 2026 with confidence, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, stagnant inflation in some regions and uneven global growth.

According to UBS, private equity stands out as the asset class of choice for billionaires this year. Almost half of billionaires (49%) plan to increase their exposure to direct private equity investments, while another 37% expect to increase their allocations through private equity funds. Private debt is also gaining ground, with a third of respondents planning to increase their exposure to it. Higher interest rates have made private credit more attractive, offering yield opportunities alongside tighter lending conditions in the traditional banking system. Listed equities remain essential to billionaire portfolios. Over 40% plan to increase their exposure to both developed and emerging market equities, while the vast majority expect to at least maintain their current allocations. Very few of those surveyed by UBS plan to reduce their exposure to emerging market equities, suggesting optimism about long-term growth in developing economies.

Hedge funds are another key beneficiary of this risk-on mindset, the source notes. With 43% planning to increase their exposure, billionaires appear to value hedge funds for their flexibility, diversification benefits and ability to navigate volatile or sideways markets.

More defensive asset classes are seeing less dramatic changes. Most billionaires plan to keep their allocations to infrastructure, real estate, gold and fixed income largely unchanged. Cash levels are also expected to remain stable, with just 19% planning to increase their exposure.