Euro seeks global power, but advances slowly

The direction is assumed politically, but the data show that the euro is not yet approaching the status of a rival to the dollar. Recent speeches by European Central Bank officials confirm the ambition to strengthen the international role of the single currency, but statistics indicate slow progress, limited by the internal fragmentation of the European Union and the structural advantages of the dollar.

• ECB speech: ambition without regime rupture

In her speeches in May and October 2025, Christine Lagarde stressed that the euro will not gain influence "by default”, but only through internal reforms: deepening capital markets, strengthening economic security and strengthening the institutional framework.

The same line appears in the speech given on January 9, 2026 by Philip Lane, The euro in a changing world, which points to opportunities created by geopolitical fragmentation, but recognizes the dominance of the dollar in the short and medium term. The common message is one of cautious optimism, not of rapid change.

• Foreign exchange reserves: stability at low levels

International Monetary Fund data for 2025 show that the dollar concentrates approximately 57-58% of global foreign exchange reserves, while the euro remains stuck around the 20% threshold.

The ECB report - The international role of the euro, June 2025 confirms that this share has not changed significantly even after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Although the dollar has lost ground compared to the early 2000s, the euro has not captured this decline, with diversification moving mainly towards gold and, marginally, towards other currencies.

The explanations are structural: the preference of central banks for assets associated with a consolidated military power, the lack of a common safe asset in the euro area and the fragmentation of European financial markets.

• International trade: the euro resists regionally

In invoicing global trade, the euro has a better position than in reserves, but remains geographically limited. Joint IMF-ECB studies (2025) indicate a share of around 40% in global goods exports, stable compared to the pre-pandemic period.

Within the European Union, the euro dominates extra-EU exports, but imports remain predominantly invoiced in dollars, reflecting the dependence on energy and raw materials quoted in the US currency. Outside Europe, the dollar remains the reference currency.

• Financial infrastructure: the dollar's advantage persists

The dollar's dominance is supported by the global payments and settlement infrastructure. The euro is slowly recovering through initiatives such as the ISO 20022 standard, euro liquidity lines and the digital euro project, but ECB assessments show that the effects are incremental, not transformative.

• The euro remains the second currency

The euro has direction but no speed. The political ambition to strengthen its global role is clear, but the data point to a slow, structurally conditioned transition. The global monetary order is fragmenting, but it is not yet reconfiguring in favor of the single currency. For the time being, the euro remains the second currency of the system, without the capacity to challenge the hegemony of the dollar in the medium term.