European tourism caught in the grip of climate change: the summer of 2026 redraws the holiday map

By the summer of 2026, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires had evolved from mere environmental issues into economic variables for the European tourism industry. While the south of the continent continues to attract millions of visitors and generate record revenues, extreme temperatures are beginning to alter tourist behavior, travel seasonality, and costs. At the same time, Europe is compelled to invest increasingly in infrastructure, fire protection, insurance, and the adaptation of cities and tourist attractions.

This summer presented a contradictory picture of European tourism. On one hand, demand for holidays remained strong, with tourist numbers and spending continuing to rise in many key destinations. On the other hand, right at the peak of the season, parts of the continent became so hot and dry that the traditional summer holiday model-beaches, historic cities, outdoor excursions, and cultural tourism-came under strain. Data from the European Travel Commission (ETC) in July showed that international arrivals in Europe had risen by 5% in the first few months of the year, with overnight stays increasing by 4.8%. Nearly 80% of monitored destinations reported growth in the second quarter. Simultaneously, tourists were becoming more conscious of price, safety, destination proximity, and the choice of travel periods outside the peak season. Eurostat confirms these figures. In the first half of 2026, tourist accommodation establishments in the European Union recorded approximately 1.3 billion nights spent-the highest level ever observed for the first two quarters of a year and 1.7% above the same period in 2025. The issue is that these aggregate figures mask a transformation taking place within the market.

• A summer where climate became an economic factor

In Western Europe, the months of June and July were exceptional. According to the European Copernicus service, the average temperature in Western Europe during June and July 2026 reached 21.62 degrees Celsius-2.79 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average-marking the highest value in the data series dating back to 1979. France, Spain, Belgium, Switzerland, England, and Wales recorded, in many regions, the highest temperatures for this period in the entire series. The situation was particularly severe in France. Meteo-France classified the summer of 2026 as the hottest in the country since records began in 1900. The average temperature was 24 degrees Celsius-3.6 degrees Celsius above the reference period average-and the country experienced 53 days of heatwaves across three distinct episodes. Approximately 90% of the territory recorded temperatures of at least 35 degrees Celsius at some point, while 45% of the territory exceeded 40 degrees Celsius. It was not merely a matter of tourist discomfort; the heatwave affected transport, agriculture, energy consumption, infrastructure, and outdoor activities. The drought has parched vegetation and heightened the risk of wildfires, while low river levels have disrupted inland shipping, water supplies, and energy production. In August, the European Commission warned that the drought, which had taken hold across Europe in the spring, had intensified during the summer months. The Loire, Po, Rhine, and Danube rivers dropped to extremely low levels, while wildfire activity surged. By August 5, the total area burned in the European Union had reached 505,683 hectares, compared to 379,392 hectares on the same date in 2025. Data from the European Commission's EFFIS indicates that, by September 16, 2026, approximately 668,000 hectares had been affected by wildfires in the EU-nearly double the 20-year average of 346,567 hectares for the same period. However, this figure remained below that of 2025, which-for the time being-stands as the worst year on record for Europe, with over one million hectares burned by that same date. For the tourism sector, such events can result in road closures, the evacuation of tourist sites, cancelled excursions, affected hotels, inaccessible beaches or trails, and additional costs for authorities and operators.

• The Mediterranean isn't losing tourists, but it is beginning to lose its climate comfort

It is too early to conclude that tourists are abandoning southern Europe en masse. In fact, data from 2026 shows the exact opposite in several markets. In the summer, Spain estimated that approximately 43 million international tourists would visit the country between June and September-6% more than in the same period of 2025-and that spending would reach around euro64 billion, 10% higher than the previous year. Actual data for July shows that international tourists spent euro18.2 billion in Spain, 10.9% more than in July 2025. In the first seven months of the year, spending reached euro82.05 billion, an increase of 7.8%. Portugal also saw positive trends. In July, accommodation establishments recorded 3.4 million tourists and 9.6 million overnight stays-increases of 1% and 2.1%, respectively. Tourism revenue reached euro3.65 billion that month, while the total for the first seven months of the year stood at euro16.53 billion-3.6% higher than in the same period of the previous year.

Greece also remains a major European tourist destination. In 2024, tourism directly accounted for 7.3% of the Greek economy's gross value added and 14.4% of employment, according to the OECD. Tourism receipts totaled euro21.6 billion, following 27.4 million international arrivals at accommodation establishments. However, these figures do not mean that climate change is not affecting tourism; its impact is often visible in tourist behavior before it shows up in statistics regarding total visitor numbers.

• Shifting the vacation calendar

One of the most significant effects of global warming is the shift in the tourism season. If temperatures in July and August become too high for city sightseeing, hiking, or excursions, tourists may keep the destination but change the timing of their trip. A holiday in Greece might be moved from August to May or October, while a tour of Italy could be scheduled for April or September. This shift is already being observed in the market. In the summer of 2026, the ETC indicated that European tourists were placing increasing importance on traveling outside the peak season. At the same time, some tourists began seeking cooler destinations. This phenomenon is increasingly referred to as a "coolcation"-a holiday in a destination with more moderate temperatures. Data cited by Euronews and AFP showed growing interest in southern Scandinavia, Finland, and Norway, as well as in the northern regions of traditionally popular tourist countries-such as Galicia in Spain, Trentino-Alto Adige in Italy, and Normandy and Alsace in France. However, it is important not to overstate the phenomenon. Climate is just one criterion when choosing a holiday; price, accessibility, infrastructure, air connectivity, culture, gastronomy, coastal areas, and a destination's reputation remain significant factors. Precisely for this reason, the Mediterranean did not experience a collapse in demand in 2026, but rather the first signs of a redistribution.

• Heatwaves impact tourist attractions

A relevant example comes from France. Heatwaves forced several cultural sites to alter their operating hours. The Louvre Museum temporarily reduced its opening hours in July, closing at 4:00 PM, as high temperatures and heat accumulation made both visiting and working conditions difficult for staff. The institution noted that some of its spaces were not sufficiently adapted to the current climate. At the Château d'Azay-le-Rideau, the schedule was shifted to allow visits during the cooler morning hours, and water-misting systems and air-conditioning equipment were installed. However, visitor numbers dropped by 10% in July and 15% in August. The "Centre des monuments nationaux" -the institution managing around 100 French monuments-refunded euro525,000 for tickets affected by closures. At Versailles, which saw 11 days of reduced operating hours, visitor numbers fell by 33% during the peak of the heatwave, with estimated losses of at least euro260,000. These figures demonstrate that economic loss does not occur solely when a tourist cancels a vacation.

It can also arise when a tourist visits but stays for a shorter time, visits fewer attractions, avoids outdoor activities, or simply does not return. A CaixaBank Research study on tourism in Spain found that unusually hot weather conditions reduce the likelihood of international tourists returning. During the extreme heat episodes analyzed, the probability of a return visit was approximately 15% lower compared to visitors who experienced near-normal weather conditions. For an industry heavily reliant on repeat visitors, this shift may be more significant than a fluctuation of a few percentage points in arrivals over a single season.

• Wildfires: from local risk to tourism issue

In the past, a wildfire might have been viewed as a local issue, confined to the forest and nearby properties. By 2026, wildfires had become a problem for the entire tourism ecosystem. In Spain, summer wildfires generated response costs estimated at up to euro3.275 billion. An analysis cited by Euronews shows that the economic effects extend to tourism and agriculture. Previously published research estimated that regions in southern Europe affected by major fires could experience reductions in growth. ...annual GDP by between 0.11% and 0.18%, while in the most severely affected years, the cumulative decline could reach 3.3%-4.8%. According to these estimates, sectors such as transport, accommodation, and food services experienced slower growth and the loss of thousands of jobs.

In Croatia, the issue directly impacted a tourist resort. In September, a fire on the island of Braè led to the evacuation of approximately 500 people, including nearly 200 British tourists. The affected resort was closed, and the tour operator TUI relocated its customers. In such situations, economic losses extend beyond the cost of firefighting operations and physical destruction; factors such as unoccupied rooms, cancelled bookings, transport disruptions, compensation payments, relocation costs, infrastructure damage, and-harder to quantify-damage to the destination's image must also be taken into account.

• Greece: Tourism sector begins investing in water and energy

Greece perhaps best illustrates the Mediterranean dilemma. The country relies on tourism, yet the very growth of the sector places strain on resources that are becoming increasingly vulnerable due to climate change. In August, Michael Arghyrou, the Greek Prime Minister's economic advisor, warned that wildfires and heatwaves pose a growing fiscal risk to Greece in the medium and long term. The government has begun ramping up investment in water and energy infrastructure within tourist areas and is considering measures to improve insurance coverage against losses caused by climate-related events.

This represents a significant paradigm shift. Tourism can no longer be planned in isolation from water policy, energy systems, forest protection, road infrastructure, or public health. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) highlights precisely this interdependence in its 2026 tourism report: heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and storms directly affect infrastructure and operator activities, while also indirectly impacting destination reputations and tourists' travel decisions. Furthermore, high temperatures drive up cooling and refrigeration costs and can create water availability issues.

• Spain seeks to shift tourism patterns and cool down cities

Spain has begun addressing climate adaptation as a matter of tourism organization as well. The national adaptation program for the 2026-2030 period includes 176 measures, ranging from climate services and the adaptation of cities and infrastructure to water and coastal management and actions specifically targeting the tourism sector. The Spanish government has also announced a national network of climate shelters-backed by euro10 million in funding-along with another euro9 million to prepare local communities and the public for the green transition. In parallel, the tourism strategy aims to disperse visitor flows toward less crowded areas.

This solution offers two simultaneous benefits: it alleviates pressure on major coastal destinations and allows tourists to discover regions with more bearable climatic conditions. However, there is a limit: shifting tourists does not solve the problem of extreme temperatures; it merely redistributes demand.

• The climate bill is starting to hit European budgets

In September, the European Commission announced plans to create a European alliance for climate risk insurance. The reason is simple: currently, only about 25% of losses caused by catastrophes in Europe are covered by private insurance. The financial burden for the remainder ultimately falls on public budgets.

For the tourism industry, this is a critical issue. Hotels, restaurants, airports, ports, amusement parks, ski resorts, and cultural sites all require insurance; however, in areas where climate risk is rising, policies can become more expensive or harder to obtain. At the same time, authorities must fund protective infrastructure.

A study commissioned by the European Commission's Directorate-General for Climate Action estimates that the EU and its member states, together with the private sector, would need to invest approximately euro70 billion annually through 2050 to adapt to climate change. Roughly euro30 billion per year would be required for infrastructure, euro21 billion for ecosystems, and euro12 billion for food security. France, Italy, Germany, and Spain have the greatest investment needs, partly due to the size of their economies and their geographic exposure. Tourism is not the sole beneficiary of these investments, but it is one of the sectors that depends directly on them.

A hotel cannot operate without water. An island cannot host millions of tourists without energy and transport. A historic city cannot remain attractive if visiting it becomes unbearable for weeks on end. And a mountain resort cannot survive in the long term without taking into account. .changing snow conditions.

• Not all regions will lose out

One of the key findings of European studies is that climate change will not result in the same outcome everywhere. A study by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre shows that warming will redistribute tourism demand across the continent. Under scenarios involving 3°C or 4°C of warming, coastal regions in Southern Europe could lose nearly 10% of their summer tourists, while northern regions could see an increase in demand. Losses of over 5% are projected for some Southern European regions, whereas certain northern areas could experience growth exceeding 5%. In more severe climate scenarios, European studies even point to a potential 9.12% drop in tourism demand for the Ionian Islands in Greece and increases of up to 16% in areas such as West Wales. This does not mean Northern Europe will become the new Mediterranean; rather, it means that climatic differences between regions will gradually alter the comparative advantages of various destinations. A northern city currently considered too cold for a beach holiday might become more attractive during a summer when Southern Europe frequently sees temperatures exceeding 40°C.

• European tourism will need to offer more than just sunshine

The tourism model based almost exclusively on "sun and sea" is the most vulnerable. This is not because tourists will stop seeking out beaches, but because the beach experience alone is no longer enough to offset extreme temperatures, water shortages, or the risk of wildfires. Destinations will need to invest in shading, green spaces, building cooling systems, adapted public transport, warning systems, water and energy infrastructure, fire management, and evacuation plans. Tour operators, in turn, will need to adjust their offerings. Midday excursions might be shifted to the morning; museums could extend their evening hours; mountain trails might face restrictions on days of extreme risk; and hotels could offer indoor activities. Resorts might more aggressively promote the months of May and October. Adaptation can thus become not merely a cost, but a source of competitive advantage. The OECD indicates that early warning systems, risk assessments, adapted infrastructure, and improved inter-agency coordination can boost tourism resilience. However, the organization also highlights that regions heavily reliant on a single sector are more vulnerable to shocks.

The European Commission already recognizes tourism as a sector directly exposed to climate change-manifested through rising temperatures, droughts, wildfires, altered precipitation patterns, and dwindling water resources. For the European tourism industry, this represents perhaps one of the most significant shifts of the decade: climate is no longer merely the backdrop to a holiday; it has become an integral part of the tourism product itself.