Gold Falls, System Breaks

The sharp decline in gold since the end of the past week (and which continues) is directly attributed to changes at the top of US monetary policy:

- Nomination of the new head of the Fed: President Donald Trump's decision to nominate Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) acted as a cold shower for the markets. Warsh is perceived by investors as an "inflation hawk", a supporter of high interest rates and a strong dollar.

- Dollar's Comeback: According to reference data provided by Bloomberg and Reuters, the dollar index (DXY) rose sharply, reducing the attractiveness of gold for investors who used the yellow metal as an "anti-dollar". This movement triggered a massive liquidation of speculative positions (profit-taking) after the historic rally in 2025.

• A systemic explanation

The divergent evolutions of gold and oil between January 2025 and February 2026 indicate a regime break in the world economy. The movements no longer show simple cyclical volatility, but a structural desynchronization between safe-haven assets and demand in the real economy, typical of a phase of heightened global fragmentation.

According to reports in the international financial press, gold exceeded the threshold of 5,000 dollars per ounce at the end of January 2026, marking a nominal historical maximum, followed by sudden corrections and wide oscillations. At the same time, Brent crude oil remained under pressure, with significant negative variations compared to 2025 levels.

According to Bloomberg and the Financial Times, this decorrelation between precious metals and energy has been accentuated against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions and the repositioning of capital flows.

• Gold and silver: refuge and systemic risk premium

The rise in gold and the explosive dynamics of silver indicate an investment demand oriented towards assets without counterparty risk. According to data published by the World Gold Council in its recent reports, central banks have remained net buyers of gold in recent years, as part of the process of diversifying reserves.

Analysts cited by Barron's and MarketWatch show that the rapid rallies were followed by severe corrections, amplified by profit-taking and the liquidation of speculative positions. The structure of these movements shows a nervous market, with uneven liquidity and exaggerated reactions to policy and geopolitical risk shocks.

This combination - high official demand and extreme speculative volatility - is characteristic of periods of monetary mistrust and fragmentation of global financial flows.

• Oil: weak industrial demand and a signal of desynchronization

In contrast to precious metals, oil has not confirmed a global expansion cycle. According to data published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in its periodic bulletins, the dynamics of stocks and production have indicated episodes of comfortable supply and uneven demand across regions.

The Financial Times notes that oil price variations have been influenced more by regional and geopolitical factors than by a globally synchronized industrial expansion. The relative weakness of energy, simultaneously with the strength of safe-haven metals, points to a fragmented world economy, with areas of stagnation and areas of financial stress.

This gold-oil polarization describes a rupture between:

- demand for financial protection,

- demand for fuel for industrial growth.

• Fragmentation and divergent economic cycles

Composite indicators of economic and financial globalization published in academia and frequently cited in market analyses show a downward trend from the highs of the 1995-2010 period. According to syntheses published by economic research centers and taken up by the financial press, trade and financial fragmentation produces less synchronized economic cycles.

The direct effect is the emergence of different monetary needs between economic blocs:

- economies with pressures on financial assets and monetary risk tend to maintain high interest rates;

- economies with weak industrial demand and growth pressures tend to relax monetary conditions.

Specialized publications in the area of capital markets show that the differences in trajectory between major central banks have increased, and the international correlation of interest rate cycles has decreased.

• Divergent interest rates and currency volatility

According to strategic analyses cited by Bloomberg Intelligence and the Anglo-Saxon financial press, markets are beginning to push for a regime of divergent interest rates between regions. This divergence is directly transmitted in:

- exchange rate volatility;

- differentiated risk premia;

- misaligned financing costs between economic blocs.

Central banks are increasingly reacting to domestic conditions and less to a global common cycle.

• Romania: defensive monetary positioning

According to the official press release of the National Bank of Romania from the first monetary policy meeting of 2026, the key interest rate was maintained at 6.50%. The institution motivates the decision by assessing inflationary risks and the volatile external context.

Interest rate differentials and dollar movements directly influence emerging markets through the exchange rate and the cost of external financing, according to regional analyses cited in the European financial press.

• New market regime

The polarization between gold and oil, the volatility of metals and the lack of a coherent global energy impulse describe a commodity market that no longer operates on the basis of a single global growth cycle. Investors treat monetary risk, geopolitical risk and regional risk separately.

Asset markets react in blocks, not unitarily.