EnglishInterest is not merely the price of capital. Interest is the mechanism that orders economic space. This is the central thesis of the present work.
The Theory of Interest proposes a shift in perspective. Standard analysis treats interest as a dependent variable determined by time preference, inflation, and risk. The model presented here treats interest as an architectural variable. It selects feasible arbitrages, directs capital flows, and shapes the degree of economic integration or fragmentation.
This work applies exclusively to credit-based economies with interest. It does not describe all historical forms of economy, nor does it formulate a general theory of exchange. It describes the structural mechanism of credit civilization.
The model begins with a complete decomposition of interest that explicitly includes the arbitrage component - α. This component expresses the cost of crossing legal, institutional, and geopolitical barriers. It explains the persistence of financing differentials between seemingly convergent economic spaces. It explains the re-emergence of fragmentation after periods of advanced integration.
The operational thesis is straightforward: integration compresses exploitable differentials. The compression of differentials reduces the feasibility of arbitrage. The reduction in arbitrage feasibility fragilizes the credit system. Fragmentation recreates the differentials necessary for its functioning. Integration and disintegration are alternating phases of the same structural mechanism.
The theoretical text is strictly separated from empirical validation and measurement tools. This separation is deliberate. It protects the model from dependence on conjunctural data and allows independent testing.
The volume consists of three distinct layers.
The first layer is the theoretical document - The Theory of Interest. It formulates the model, definitions, and mechanisms. Its internal annexes belong exclusively to theory and develop the necessary formalizations.
The second layer is the empirical validation document. It maps economic blocs, operational barriers, payment infrastructures, and divergences in the cost of capital. Its role is probative. It does not modify the model - it confronts it with observable reality.
The third layer is the methodological document of the composite indicator - The BURSA Globalization Index. It transforms structural concepts into replicable metrics. The indicator enables measurement, comparison, and periodic updating. The methodology is explicit and based on public institutional sources.
The reader must treat these layers distinctly. The model can be analyzed without the indicator. The indicator can be calculated without full acceptance of the model. The validation can be contested without invalidating the theoretical construction. This methodological independence increases the robustness of the entire work.
The text does not promise point predictions. It offers no cyclical timelines. It proposes no historical determinism. It offers a structural interpretive framework. The framework explains why phases of integration tend to reach their internal limits. It explains why fragmentation reappears through institutional and geopolitical mechanisms.
The stake of this text is architectural. It moves the analysis of interest from the domain of parameters to the domain of structure. If this shift is correct, then interest becomes an indicator of the configuration of the economic world, not merely an instrument of monetary policy.
This volume is offered to a specialized public - investors, analysts, managers, and decision-makers. The text requires careful reading and critical verification. The model gains value through testing, not through adherence.
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