Weight-loss drug boom raises questions about the pharmaceutical industry

The spectacular increase in demand for obesity and diabetes drugs, especially those in the GLP-1 class, is starting to raise concerns about the emergence of a possible "bubble” in the pharmaceutical industry, according to a report by Deloitte and cited by CNBC. Products such as Wegovy and Zepbound have become growth engines for major companies in the field, contributing to a return on R&D investments of about 7%, for the third consecutive year. For the first time in the last 16 years, obesity treatments have surpassed oncology as the main source of value in drug portfolios in advanced stages of development, generating about 38% of estimated revenues from the industry's pipeline.

• Performance hides structural vulnerabilities

Despite these results, the report warns that reliance on a single class of drugs distorts the overall picture. If GLP-1 therapies are excluded from the calculation, the industry's yield drops significantly, to 2.9%, down from 3.8% previously. Moreover, revenue concentration is extremely high: around 9% of late-stage projects - the so-called "mega-blockbusters” - are estimated to generate almost 70% of the sector's future sales. This dependence amplifies systemic risks, as a potential failure or regulatory change could have knock-on effects across the industry.

• Market leaders and the obesity bet

Companies such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly dominate the GLP-1 drug segment, benefiting from the growing global demand for anti-obesity treatments. The success of these products reflects not only commercial interest but also their significant clinical impact. Studies show that they can reduce cardiovascular risks and improve various conditions associated with excess weight.

• Open questions about long-term effects

Despite the benefits, there are still uncertainties about the long-term effects of these treatments, including on the brain or on inflammatory processes in the body. This lack of comprehensive data represents an additional risk factor for an industry already exposed to volatility. The Deloitte report outlines a difficult choice for big pharma companies: continue massive investments in GLP-1 drugs, taking advantage of the current wave of demand;

or diversify research to identify the next major direction of innovation. The explosion of weight loss and diabetes drugs has redefined the pharmaceutical industry's priorities and generated significant gains. However, excessive focus on a limited number of products raises questions about the sustainability of this model. Without real diversification, the sector risks becoming vulnerable to specific shocks, and current success could turn, over time, into systemic fragility.