Climate Crisis Worsens, Global Warming Accelerates

A major new study by about 60 researchers from 17 countries warns that ten key climate indicators are in the red, signaling an accelerating worsening of the global climate crisis. Published in the journal Earth System Science Data, the report shows that human-caused warming has reached a record pace, with an average increase of 0.27°C per decade between 2015 and 2024.

• Emissions Rising, Budget Shrinking

Greenhouse gas emissions, mainly carbon dioxide from fossil fuels, hit a new record in 2024, averaging 53 billion tons annually over the past decade. At the same time, particulate matter in the atmosphere, which has a temporary cooling effect, has declined, contributing to the net warming of the planet. Global temperatures have already risen by 1.52°C above pre-industrial levels, of which 1.36°C is directly attributable to human activity, the authors say. This brings the planet dramatically closer to the 1.5°C threshold set in the Paris Agreement, considered the critical limit for avoiding the worst effects of climate change. "The remaining carbon budget - the amount of carbon dioxide we can still emit to have a 50% chance of keeping warming below 1.5°C - has shrunk to just 130 billion tonnes, or about 3 years at the current rate of emissions,” warns Pierre Friedlingstein (CNRS).

• Sea level rising at an accelerated rate

The report also introduces new indicators, such as sea level rise, which has accelerated dramatically. Between 2019 and 2024, the level rose by 26 mm, compared to an average of less than 2 mm/year at the beginning of the 20th century. In total, the ocean has risen by 22.8 cm since 1900 - enough to increase the risk of storms, coastal erosion and the disappearance of small island states. "This rise will continue even if we completely stopped emissions today, but the speed and magnitude can only be limited by urgently reducing emissions,” says climatologist Valerie Masson-Delmotte.

• Alarm signals ignored

The researchers insist that the current situation is not a surprise to the scientific community, but it is increasingly alarming. The El Niño phenomenon, which periodically warms the waters of the Pacific Ocean, contributed to the extreme values in 2024, but the overall trend is fueled by human activity. "Everything is going in the wrong direction,” said Piers Forster, the study's coordinator and a professor at the University of Leeds. However, he urges action, not resignation.

• Insufficient policy responses

The French Minister for the Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, commented on the study, insisting that "every ton of carbon counts” and that viable technological solutions exist, but that they are being slowed down by fossil fuel lobbies. She warns that the message of "it's too late” is dangerous and untrue.

• Global tensions ahead of COP30

The report comes less than six months before COP30, which will take place in Brazil. But political uncertainties, such as the possible withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement, already announced by former President Donald Trump, threaten the international cohesion needed to accelerate the energy transition.

The study confirms that exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is almost inevitable, but stresses that the future can still be influenced. Drastically reducing emissions remains humanity's most powerful tool to limit future damage and build a habitable world for future generations.