Europe is vulnerable: Commissioner Andrius Kubilius calls for massive investment in defence

European armies only have 50% of the means we need today, according to NATO objectives, said European Commissioner for Defence, Andrius Kubilius, in an interview with Euractiv. That is why the European Commission official stresses the urgency of a deep strategic reconstruction, through massive investment in defence, reducing dependence on American weapons and reviving the European arms industry. Andrius Kubilius argues that Europe no longer has the luxury of postponements and must regain its capacity to defend itself with its own forces, in an increasingly unstable global context.

In this regard, the European Commission has launched the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) initiative, which aims to mobilise euro150 billion in joint loans to strengthen military procurement programmes. The aim is clear: to develop an autonomous and competitive defence industrial base. According to the cited source, currently about 40% of the European Union's defense budgets are spent on American equipment, totaling about 800 billion euros. Although this is a significant decrease compared to the 60% last year, the European Commissioner for Defense believes that this percentage must and can decrease even more. "I can't imagine that we will no longer buy anything from the US, but a reduction of 10% or 20% means that a considerable amount will remain in European industry," Andrius Kubilius told the cited source. To achieve this goal, the European Commission official proposes strategically directing defense spending towards EU companies: "If we manage to encourage member states to spend more on European products, this will gradually mean less for American products." In addition, Andrius Kubilius argues that stimulating joint military procurement between member states could have a direct impact on the economic efficiency of production: "If member states choose joint procurement, which means larger contracts, the average production price drops by 70%.

In parallel, merger processes are already underway in the European defense industry, and Kubilius believes that further consolidation will contribute to increasing the competitiveness of this sector at a global level. Beyond specific figures and strategies, his vision goes much further.

This fall, according to Commissioner Andrei Kubilius, the European Defense Union will be launched, a project that could also include countries outside the EU, such as Norway, Great Britain or Ukraine. It is an initiative that aims to prepare the continent in a real and coherent way for the possibility of an armed conflict. "We can draw inspiration from the experience of the European Energy Union to create a defense structure coordinated by the EU”, stated the European Defense Commissioner.

For the period 2028-2034, the European Commission is proposing a budget of 131 billion euros for defense and space. These funds would cover not only military purchases, but also raw materials and other key strategic areas. Andrius Kubilius avoided giving details to the cited source on how these resources would be distributed, citing the fact that discussions are ongoing, but he said: "We have our estimates of what we would ideally need, and 131 billion euros is the amount that can cover those needs. But we must understand that the bulk of defense funds come from the national level.”

According to Kubilius, Europe is at a point where it can no longer wait. Without a common strategy, without courageous investments and without real political will, the European Union risks remaining vulnerable in a world where security is earned, not assumed.

• UK awaits EU agreement to join SAFE

However, despite some open discussions in the spring, the Cabinet in London is still waiting for a formal proposal for the UK to join the EU's SAFE program. Although the talks seemed well underway in the spring, internal political disagreements within the EU have slowed progress.

We note that, as Euractiv reports, in May the British foreign secretary, David Lammy, declared himself optimistic, hoping to negotiate an agreement "within weeks". However, by the end of July it was already clear that no formal proposal would be formulated for at least a month, thus reducing the chances of negotiating advantageous conditions in time, which limits the period London has to obtain favorable conditions for its companies.

According to SAFE, EU member states must submit their public procurement wish lists by November 30, 2025. If London wants British companies to be considered, it must align itself with this timetable.

However, the he nature of the agreement to be proposed to London complicates the situation. The SAFE regulation stipulates that a "fair balance” must be found between the UK's contribution, both financial and industrial, and the benefits it will obtain from the programme. This "fair balance” is, for now, very vague. What this balance means in practice is left to the discretion of the European Commission and the member states, three European diplomats told Euractiv.

The Security and Defence Partnership signed in the spring between the EU and the UK already allows the latter to participate in public procurement financed through SAFE. However, for the time being, British companies are capped at 35% of the value of each project.

An additional agreement is therefore needed to clarify the eligibility criteria for British companies and suppliers, as well as the amount that London will have to inject into the fund. France is campaigning for strict application: it wants companies established in the European Union to benefit from European funds as a priority. Germany and the Netherlands, on the other hand, are arguing for a more pragmatic approach, arguing that Britain's integration could benefit everyone. The source cited points out that some companies, such as Rheinmetall, already have major production facilities in the UK, which strengthens the case for British access.

An internal Commission document seen by Euractiv, in which Brussels commits to keeping countries informed during the negotiations, underlines the considerable influence that member states will have in the process.

Placing the Council at the centre of the process gives EU governments the freedom to deal differently with third countries, such as the UK, Canada or Turkey. According to the internal document cited, the UK still has many obstacles to overcome. The first challenge is to obtain the agreement of the 27 EU member states. Then it will have to obtain the final agreement of the European Parliament on the agreement signed with the European Commission on the SAFE programme, before it is sent back to the EU Council, where another unanimous vote is likely to be required.

We recall that in the middle of last week, 18 European states officially requested funding through the European Union's SAFE program for defense procurement, according to a statement issued by the European Commission.

The countries wishing to benefit from the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) program, which has a budget of 150 billion euros, are Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Cyprus, Estonia, France, Greece, Italy, Hungary, Spain, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia and Finland.

The 18 countries requested funding for projects worth a total of 127 billion euros. The remaining 23 billion euros could be used by other countries that have not yet expressed interest in participating in the SAFE program. If no other state joins the program, the participating countries could launch new projects next year to use the remaining funds.

The states have until November 30, 2025, to send detailed proposals to Brussels on how they intend to use the loans.