Polls: Mircea Geoană is preparing for another unforgettable night

English Section / 3 octombrie 2023

Photo source: facebook / Mircea Geoană

Photo source: facebook / Mircea Geoană

Versiunea în limba română

Mircea Geoană is the favorite in the presidential elections, according to a public opinion poll. The former president of the PSD (Social Democratic Party) is getting ready for another memorable night. It should not be forgotten that, according to some polls conducted years ago, after the exit polls, he was briefly the president of the country, but Traian Băsescu secured the position after the votes were counted. Clearly, polls should be viewed for informational purposes, and the questions asked to the interviewed individuals are crucial. This can lead to some unusual situations where a candidate who is not among the favorites can win in a certain context in the second round.

The current Deputy Secretary-General of NATO, Mircea Geoană, is the top choice for the presidential elections as an independent candidate, with approximately a quarter of the voting intentions. He is followed in order by Marcel Ciolacu, George Simion, Nicolae Ciucă, Diana Şoşoacă, Cătălin Drulă, Dacian Cioloş, and Kelemen Hunor, according to a survey conducted by INSCOP Research commissioned by News.ro. The same survey indicates that 57.2% of those surveyed declare that they will definitely go out to vote. The survey also includes questions about potential scenarios for the second round of the presidential election. In a runoff against George Simion, Mircea Geoană would win by a score of 63.5% to 36.5%. A runoff between Marcel Ciolacu and George Simion would result in a score of 58.8% to 41.2% in favor of Marcel Ciolacu. The closest race would be if Nicolae Ciucă faced George Simion in the second round, with a score of 52.2% to 47.8% in favor of Nicolae Ciucă. Two other scenarios involve Emil Boc, one against Marcel Ciolacu with a very narrow margin of 50.4% to 49.6% in favor of Emil Boc, and another against Mircea Geoană, where Mircea Geoană would win with a score of 59.9% to 40.1%.

Remus Ştefureac, the general director of INSCOP Research, stated, "The poll conducted by INSCOP in partnership with News.ro presents the first figures regarding voting preferences for next year's presidential elections. For the first-round voting intention, we considered several names that have been speculated about in the public space as potential candidates, indicating their party, alliance, or independent status. Additionally, for the second-round scenarios, we tested multiple situations, measuring only the potential of each candidate without specifying a party or a party alliance that would support that candidate. In the sociological research in the coming months, we will test other potential presidential candidates based on the evolution of public discourse on this topic. The main conclusions that can be drawn from these data are: the preference for an independent candidate for the first time, which significantly affects the performance of other candidates supported by a party, the 70% support for candidates with a moderate democratic profile, and the 30% support for candidates with a radical profile. The configuration of the population's preferences for the first round leaves open any scenario of candidates who could reach the second round of the presidential elections. This is just the first snapshot of an electoral confrontation that will undergo many changes, dominate the 2024 electoral year, and decisively influence the performance of parties in other types of elections next year (European Parliament, local, and parliamentary elections)."

The opinion poll was conducted by INSCOP Research on behalf of News.ro. The data was collected between September 15th and September 22nd through telephone interviews (CATI method). The sample size was 1550 individuals, stratified to be representative of significant socio-demographic categories (gender, age, occupation) for the non-institutionalized population of Romania aged 18 and over. The maximum margin of error for the data is ±2.49%, with a confidence level of 95%.

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