The world today - "neutral" between La Nina and El Nino weather patterns

The world is meteorologically in a transitional phase. The probability that the La Nina weather pattern, characterized by low temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will develop between July and September is 65%, a US government weather agency announced. This transition from the current neutral phase between La Nina and El Nino weather patterns could persist into the 2024-2025 Northern Hemisphere winter, with an 85% probability between November and January, the Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly forecast ( CPC) from the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States. The cycle between El Nino, La Nina and a neutral phase usually lasts between two and seven years and can generate wildfires, tropical cyclones, floods and prolonged droughts, impacting farmers around the world. Crops concentrated in certain geographical areas are more susceptible to price increases during unfavorable weather conditions. This makes global wheat and corn prices less likely to be affected by La Nina or El Nino, said Bill Weatherburn, an economist at Capital Economics. El Nino brings a natural increase in surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while La Nina is characterized by cooler temperatures in the equatorial Pacific region. "La Nina correlates with hot and dry weather in North America (Midwest, USA), East Asia (China) and regions of South America (Argentina and parts of Brazil) during the growing season," said Chris Hyde, meteorologist at Maxar. However, for crops in South Africa (maize), South and Southeast Asia (Indian sugarcane and wheat) and Australia, La Nina is helpful due to higher amounts of rainfall, and as a result , may contribute to a better crop yield, except for the risk of flooding, said Isaac Hankes, weather analyst at the London Stock Exchange Group. Meteorological experts noted that these correlations are influenced by the timing and intensity of La Nina. Other agencies, such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Japan Meteorological Bureau, have also noted the end of the El Nino phenomenon, forecasting that a La Nina will form this year. For India, the transition from El Nino to La Nina is likely to bring a monsoon characterized by increased humidity, but another phenomenon, called the Indian Oscillating Dipole (IOD), can influence the intensity of rainfall, said Jason Nicholls, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather. Such a positive dipole leads to a wetter summer monsoon, while a negative IOD event leads to less moisture and drier conditions, Nicholls added.