The impact of Trump's tariffs: Japan invests, Mexico and China retaliate, Europe negotiates

The trade agreement reached by the US and Japan, as announced by President Donald Trump, represents a radical new economic decision aimed at reaffirming the United States' position in global trade. In a move with significant geopolitical impact, the Trump administration succeeded in imposing a 15% tariff on imports from Japan, marking a partial end to tense negotiations between the two economic powers. Although the level of this tariff is below the 25% that the US president had previously spoken about, it signals a harsh reconfiguration of trade relations between the US and its traditional allies.

The government in Tokyo accepted this agreement, whose tariff was practically imposed on Japan, through the promise that Japanese officials made regarding the realization of $ 550 billion in investments in the American economy, although the concrete details of this plan remain ambiguous. This tax is seen as an example of Trump's aggressive economic strategy, which continues to condition access to the American market on major concessions, including investments or structural changes in partners' trade policies.

Also in this register, Trump canceled, according to CNN and NBC News, a 30-year agreement on tomato imports from Mexico, imposing a 17% tariff, a decision that deeply polarized the American agri-food industry. While producers in Florida welcomed the measure as vital for the survival of local farms, importers and growers in Texas and Arizona criticized it vehemently, warning of rising prices, the loss of tens of thousands of jobs and the blocking of innovation in the greenhouse sector. These side effects highlight the tensions between the desire to protect the domestic market and the realities of a globalized economy, in which supply chains are interdependent and difficult to decouple without direct economic consequences for consumers.

Internationally, the effects of Trump's tariff strategy are reverberating beyond the US borders. The trade war triggered by the former president has strained relations with both China and the European Union. Despite initial hopes that Beijing and Brussels could find common ground in the face of American pressure, the reality is proving to be much more complex. Deep differences over Chinese overproduction, support for Russia, and manipulation of rare earth supply chains have prevented rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. In fact, China seems to be adopting a strategy inspired by the Trump playbook, escalating trade responses and using its control over essential raw materials to negotiate from a position of strength. Moreover, Chinese officials are waiting to see how the high-level dialogue that begins tomorrow between Ursula von der Leyen - President of the European Commission, Antonio Costa - President of the European Council and Kaja Kallas - High Representative of the EU, on the one hand, and the central authorities in Beijing, on the other, will end, a dialogue that begins today in the Chinese capital.

The visit of the senior European officials seems to be a search for solutions or an economic refuge, in case they do not reach an agreement with Donald Trump by August 1, the date on which the increased customs tariffs announced by the American president for products manufactured in the European Union would come into force.

In this context, the US remains the central actor in the reconfiguration of global trade, and Trump's tariff policy continues to shape major economic decisions around the world. This reality makes any evolution in the positioning of the American president have the potential to destabilize and significantly recalibrate the global economy.