We know who is gonna win the elections in the US

CORNEL CODIŢA (TRANSLATED BY COSMIN GHIDOVEANU)
English Section / 09 noiembrie 2020

The world is a complex place and full of uncertainties. That may be. But we are convinced it is rather simple. Simpler than it seems and more complicated than we believe. Here is also the illustration: the American presidential elections. Their outcome is easy to predict. It's either Biden or Trump. Tertium non datur! That is of course, if we live and see.

TRUMP

Jubilatio

The new Caesar and his new legions of loyalists have passed the Rubicon of American policy. They have dared the unthinkable: they have raised the sword against the ssytem to rescue the City, to push it away from its path to weakness, defeat and they have won. The winner's chariot can beneath the arches, the crowds can go wild, the Senate can prepare the laurel wreath that will be placed on the forehead of the major strategist and politician. If not for the official title, the status of imperator is a certainty. America's road to the Empire passed the critical stage, the inflection point, it is beyond "the tipping point". The history of the Republic ends here. The history of the first day of the empire has already been written.

The sources of victory

Trump's victory has had three deep roots, digging deeply in the soil of American politics. The first, republican loyalists, for the first time after a long time, "melded" by the ultra-conservative groups and even "extremist" of the American right. Two forces have merged to obtain this special result.

The first, the desire to prove that the victory that gave Trump his first term was not an accident nor "a system error", that it represents the voice of real America, willing to defend its values against the almost irrational assault "of the revolutionary left" which wants to impose the radical change not just of the historically established rules, but to change and rewrite history itself. It is the victory of the silent majority that has felt pushed against the wall. Hence the strength with which it came back. The second component is that of hope, namely that the "fight against the system" could be really seen through, and that is not possible without a second Trump term. The second root of Trump's victory is also classic: it's the economy, dummy! With all the massively negative consequences of coronavirus epidemic, not just the American exchange, but also a large chunk of the big businesses have stood to gain from Trump's term. Unexpected for many, Almost every economic indicator that counts in an election, from the unemployment rate to the median income and from stock market prospects to the price of insurance, every economic indicator voted for Trump. Last but not least, no less traditional and important, the personal brand of the candidate has mattered enormously. Trump, aside from the interminable list of criticisms and weaknesses alleged by his opponents, has established a profile for his followers, as well as for anyone who has followed the electoral battle: the fighter! The man in the arena for whom Victory is the only option. At any cost! By any means, if necessary! Trump has imposed his brand as a Fighter, and Americans have recognized it and easily identified with it, even those that had something to criticize him for.

Finally, no less traditional and important, the personal brand of the candidate mattered enormously. Trump, beyond the endless list of reproaches and weaknesses that his opponents have drawn up every day, embodied not only for his supporters, but for anyone who watched the electoral battle, the Fighter! The man in the arena for whom the only option is Victoria. At any cost! By any means, if necessary! Trump imposed his Fighter mark, and the Americans recognized it and easily identified with it, even those who had something to reproach them with.

The priorities of the agenda

There is no room for doubt that priority no. 1 of Trump's new term will be the fight against the system. Whether it will mean, for instance, the structural reorganization of some institutions such as the State Department, the FBI, CIA and the intelligence community, the Department of Defense or just the removal from the system of the most representative opponents, and the positioning of loyalists in the key positions of the system, remains to be seen. Priority no. 2 will be the maximizing and securing his personal gains, of every kind from the material to the political ones, until the end of his second term. The legal protection of himself and of the family that has been the core in the White House and from the network coordinated from the top of the American power structure. Finally, no. 3, preparing and securing the "Trump legacy for history". No one will have to convince Trump that he is "the Greatest President in the history of America". He will want to raise the monument that is capable of enduring and bear witness to that fact over time.

Relations with Romania

The new Trump term in the White House will be first of all centered on Asia, China, India, the Middle and Far East than in Europe. The relationship with Romania will remain in the background for the Administration as well as for the State Department. Romania will be pushed further by the tension on the transatlantic axis to weaken or even to reduce to irrelevance its strategic partnership with the US. Outside of the purchase of American weapons and of other specific interests, Romania will feature insignificantly on the agenda of international policy during Trump's second term.

The (hypothetical) message of the President of Romania for the President-elect of the United States of America

I have acknowledged and I appreciate the remarkable success you have achieved through your victory in the US presidential elections. I hereby express my conviction that the strategic partnership between our countries will continue to strengthen to the mutual benefit of our two nations. Please receive, Mr. President Trump, the declaration of my high esteem and of my special appreciation of your political activity and of the historic mandate which the American people has entrusted you with.

BIDEN

Jubilatio

Even if not triumphantly, widely, the gate of victory has eventually opened to the candidate of hope, Joe Biden. What hope? Most would say the hope of the return of the return to normalcy in American policy which has consecrated it as a benchmark of modern democracy. A democracy of safe and stable values, of human rights, of equality of chances in representing the diversity of interests and socio-economic conditions, social status and political orientation, institutional predictability and the absolute respect for the voters' choice. The Biden term in the White House means the guarantee of the river returning to its normal bed after being diverted by meteoric Trump episode, by the short period of domination of Trumpism in Washington, of the abandoning of the rules, customs, written and unwritten laws that traditionally organize politics in America.

Sources of victory

Why did the scales finally tip toward Biden? Some would say, and it's hard to contradict them, the hardest part of the victory was the fear of tens of millions of Americans about the predictable and unpredictable consequences of a second Trump term.

The specter of a Neroan era in American politics is intolerable, even for those who do not believe in Biden's ability and power to right many of the things that are currently not going in the right direction for the United States and its citizens. The vote and the declared support of some remarkable circles and personalities of the Republican Party are more than significant in this respect and, certainly, they had not only an impact on public perception, but also on voters. With wisdom, with fear, some perhaps with a heartbreak, the majority of the Americans who wanted to be heard, put aside the greater evil! Of course, there was also a significant component of the positive vote, the loyalist vote, ideologically determined, the vote from minorities and social groups directly threatened by the policies of the former president. Prey to the convulsions and excesses triggered by the obsession with ensuring the persistence of the American power system, Trump offered Biden votes on a silver platter, where he should have won them instead: the military and security establishment of America. In the big business world, he has not lost, but neither has he gained new points of support compared to the previous campaign. Last but not least, Biden's victory is based on the campaign effort of the second person on the ballot, Kamala Harris, but even more importantly on the contribution of the third, former President Obama.

Agenda priorities

The top three positions of the Agenda of the Biden Administration will be tied by a common thread: the demolition of Trumpism and its supporters, not least of all of Trump and those close to him. That superpriority will be approached from several angles simultaneously. The first will be the management of the crisis caused by the coronavirus, so that it can be proved eloquently and quickly that Biden was right when he made that issue the main attack angle against Trump and his administration. From medical and social measures, to economic measures, the coronavirus section will dominate the new presidency, at least in the first part of the term. The second attack angle will be dislodging Trump's supporters from the main institutions of power and the rebuilding of Democrats' fiefdoms. The operation won't most likely won't stop, to removing from the system of trump's supporters, but will go as far as taking them to court and having them convicted. If Trump himself and members of his family who have had positions in the White House will suffer such a treatment is a matter that will be heavily debated both in the White House, as well as in the leadership of the democrats. The decisions will vary on a case by case basis. The third angle will be the replacement of the laws that have represented the spearhead of Trumpism. From migration to wlefare and from the status of disadvantaged categories to the overtaxation of major fortunes, the agenda will definitely be busy. If democrats get the majority in the House and the Senate, then the Detrumpization of American policy will succeed during this first Democrat term.

A democracy of secure and stable values, from human rights, to equal opportunities in representing the diversity of interests and socio-economic conditions, social status and political orientations, to institutional predictability and absolute respect for the voter's choice. The Biden mandate in the White House is a guarantee of a return to the waters so severely disturbed by the meteoric episode of Trump's term, the short period of Trump's domination of Trumpism, the abandonment of rules, customs, written and unwritten laws that traditionally organize politics. in America.

The relationship with Romania

The special relationship with Romania could benefit, not necessarily directly, but through repositioning of the transatlantic relations. Biden's policy towards Europe will reestablish the safe lane of transatlanticism and will reconfirm NATO as an essential collective security structure. The Biden administration could be more cooperant with Europe and less prickly with the European institutions. It can also be assumed that the relationship with Germany will also be improved. Definitely if not Russia, then the Putin government will be made an opponent again and will be seriously penalized for Ukraine. The replacement of the ambassador appointed by Trump, will not necessarily be a priority, but depending on the reactions and evaluations from Bucharest it is not unlikely that his term will end early.

The (hypothetical) message of the President of Romania for the President-elect of the United States of America

I have acknowledged and I appreciate the remarkable success you have achieved through your victory in the US presidential elections. I hereby express my conviction that the strategic partnership between our countries will continue to strengthen to the mutual benefit of our two nations. Please receive, Mr. President Biden, the declaration of my high esteem and of my special appreciation of your political activity and of the historic mandate which the American people has entrusted you with.

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22 Ian. 2021
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